[gzz]

“Eviction on their records”

Isn’t this three possible separate things?

1. A court record of the eviction action being filed

2. The “bad tenant” database large landlords use that is like a credit report

3. Unpaid rent on a credit report.

None of these things requires actually completing the eviction action.

Nate’s tenant has 1 already, and in flyer’s case, 2 and 3 can happen even if the tenant vacates between the filing of the UD action and the hearing.

[gzz]

I am thinking of retiring next year, when I will be 39.

Partly because I am tired of being slightly overweight. Best shape of my life was between school and my first professional job. I ate fresh lean meat and veggies twice a day and worked out daily as well. I looked like a fitness model.

I just don’t have the energy to exercise daily and run a business. Being diagnosed with borderline hypertension which runs in my family is another issue. I am about 135/85 in the middle of the workday with coffee.

Hoping to control it by cutting salt way back and limiting caffeine to 300mg per AHA guidelines. I already eat pretty healthy otherwise and exercise intensely 4 hours on the weekend, plus 4 hours a yard work a week, and walk everyday.

My Dad meanwhile just officially retired this month and is already thinking about a part time job or consulting!

[gzz]

Re: paying down low interest mortgages… I’ve always regretted doing this. Same regret when I made a big extra payment on my 2.8% fixed student loan.

So many solid unloved blue chips out there that pay a 4% or more dividend and have p/e of around 10.

My current faves are KMB and KHC. I also have Vanguard’s international high-div fund VYMI that pays a little more than 4% and has gone up 8% since my Sept 2019 purchase.

I think there’s a big middle area where conservative investors avoid stocks entirely or just get index funds, and aggro investors stick to rapidly growing companies.

Even if the return is the same, you can sell the stocks if you need the money, but once you repay a purchase mortgage, you’re unlikely to be able to get the same good rate again. 30 year 2nds are rare and cash out refis have a higher rate than purchase mortgages.

[gzz]

If you selected “permanent mail voter” you always get them in the mail about 3 or 4 weeks before every election without having to do anything else.

[gzz]

I know somebody who had a tenant who stopped paying and fought eviction in SF. Total cost to landlord in lost rent and legal fees: $30,000.

So this could be very bad. Fortunately the local courts are not anti-landlord as they are in SF.

There are lawyers that do nothing but residential evictions, I suggest one of them.

It may be unpleasant, but the cheapest way to get him out may be to bribe him.

Long term, you can fight and win and get a judgment that includes your lost rent and legal costs (but not legal fees) and if he’s employed garnish is wages.

But he can then leave the state or declare bankruptcy.

Personally I protect myself by requiring first month, last month, and security deposit up front before move-in. And prior landlord references. These types of grifters are unlikely to have all this.

In some areas I’d want an employment history including pay stubs and W2s, but here in OB self employment and trustafarianism are big so that would be too restrictive.

[gzz]

SFH inventory in 92107 is currently below 1 month.

Condo inventory is slightly high because a new 30-unit townhouse development was completed last year at 4100 Voltaire. It is now more than half sold.

Looks like 2020 could be a big, 8-10% price increase year:

1. Low rates
2. Booming stock market helps fund downpayments
3. Booming economy helps incomes
4. New construction still very low
5. Inventory extremely low.

The past few years I think conservative pricing by sellers may have also held us back a little.

Just looking at the most recent listings and closings, the prices seem kind of high, yet go pending and then close quickly.

I also feel we’re due for a little catchup appreciation. San Diego has underperformed peer markets the past decade, both the other big west coast cities as well as Denver, LV, and Phoenix.

There’s no rule this has to happen, but the extra value you get moving here from LA/Bay Area is bigger than ever, and the extra cost of moving here from somewhere like Denver or Austin is smaller than ever.

[gzz]

Send me a direct message if you’re still interested, I have a suggestion.

[gzz]

Flu, congrats on the AMD calls. I’d never have done that, I stay away from capital intensive competitive industries like that.

Closest thing was during the big recession I purchased SNDK for about 5 and was pleased when it went to 9 in a few months and I sold.

Four years later it hit 100, and was delisted when they were purchased for 76. I know that even if I had held on at 9, I would have sold at 11 or 15.

Might have happened again with UBER. After my profit on that short hit 25% I cut my position in half. And it has kept falling since. I am just not very good at holding onto big winners.

My favorite Vanguard funds are VWO and VYMI. I only went in a few weeks ago, so far slight outperformance of the benchmark VOO.

[gzz]

Ebay as of Oct 1 also collects sales tax on all transactions shipped to CA.

Wonder if all this will swell the state budget surplus even more.

Problem with Payboo is that you have a limited number of hard inquiries and open accounts before your credit takes a hit.

The last few cards I got have all had $500+ sign up bonuses to make up for this. Any card that doesn’t offer at least $400 is a bad deal for people with good credit.

(Just got a targeted $1000 bonus offer from US Bank, highest I’ve seen. Requires $10,000 spend in 120 days, also on the high side.)

[gzz]

Flu, I thought you were a conservative index funder? That didn’t make you 30% YTD did it?

[gzz]

Hi neighbor. My advice is to see if you can up your budget to 900-1.0 and get a SFH in 92107/06 At that point there are some really nice places.

But even at 800, here’s a 4/2 for 795.

https://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-190059739-4224-Coronado-Ave-San-Diego-CA-92107

I think 92107 will appreciate more over time because of its location. And 1950s/60s suburbs still have elderly original owners gradually dying off or going to nursing care and negatively impacting the market. You also have the issue of most buyers who want to move to the suburbs wanting newer houses further north.

On the other hand, I grew up in a low density suburb I could safely wander around unsupervised at age 6. That wouldn’t be the case here.

[gzz]

Success: helped me time to bottom of the market to buy home 1, convinced me we had room to grow on subsequent profitable buys.

Failed: referral to a palm tree trimmer who will return my call.

I just purchased a pole chainsaw from Amazon for $66 and cut the smaller trees myself. It can reach about 14 ft high. I may have to live with the rest getting overgrown.

It is a good shoulder and neck muscle workout and also fun.

[gzz]

Property from one spouse’s parent does not become community property.

If both spouses use it and make improvements, or it is put in both of their names, it can become community property, but the share of it that was a gift or inheritance is considered a separate contribution to community property that can be taken back in a divorce.

So you inherit land from mom, build a house on it with spouse, and sell on divorce, it is split equally at first but the value of the land at the time it was inherited is then subtracted out and goes back to the contributor’s share.

The sticky situation is when the inherited property increases in value between the inheritance and divorce. The appreciation could be considered separate or community property depending on how it was treated.

I think it is pretty standard to only name children and not their spouses in wills.

In general the law isn’t friendly to gold diggers who want to take premarital assets in a divorce.

[gzz]

These deals have been around for a long time. Years ago I did this for fidelity for 60,000 delta miles, which i used for a $1200 biz class flight to the midwest. My old broker (etrade) hit me with a poorly disclosed $75 “transfer fee”.

If schwab forced u to keep the cash in escrow it would be a bad deal. But if you have spare cash to invest it is a great deal.

My go-to conservative bond investment remains gbab and bbn, the two big taxable muni funds with monthly dividends.

More recently I opened a chase sapphire checking account deal that requires a minimum of 75,000 in there for 6 months to get $750. That’s only 2% apr, but is 0 risk and 0 fees to set up.

I’ve probably made a net $20,000 in sign up bonuses for banks and brokerages over the last 18 years. In general Chase, amex, citi, and barclay are the offers worth doing, in that order.

For san diego residents, i think the overall best deals are the chase southwest card and similar chase sapphire card that converts points 1:1 to southwest.

[gzz]

Risk of short squeezes is greatly overblown.

Risk of a hype-based rally based on uncritical media reports of “pro forma” earnings is much larger. Usually boosted by “analysts” whose banks want to so the followup offering when the “profitable” company burns through its IPO cash.

I also think the “lockup period” price decline is a little overblown too. It does happen, but IPOs are usually much larger than post lockup insider sales.

Also, the normal thing for IPOs these days is to have a big element of insider sales directly to the pocket of insiders, not new shares and capital to the company. Some IPOs are more than 50% insider sales. So they don’t need to suddenly cash out at the lockup. Maybe some low level people who have stock options, but that’s a small thing.

In summary, I’ve done well for 21 years now shorting purely on valuation and ignorance non-fundamental issues like squeeze risk and lockups. If I were a pro I’d probably consider them slightly.

[Author]

Posts