Forum Replies Created
-
AuthorPosts
-
gzz
ParticipantEscoguy, I agree with what you said, especially about how conservative underwriting has been the ENTIRE TIME the market has been rising starting around 2010.
ParticipantI don’t see an issue having the rents being divided up more and more as heirs multiply. Just one example, there’s a trust that owns about 10 million of property on my street in OB after the owners died 60+ years ago.
I have a hunch the property manager is overcharging the trust, but ultimately a lot of money and appreciation is going to the heirs, and probably at some point they’ll all vote to sell.
As far as choosing a trustee, you just pick an established estate attorney who will pass the work down to another one when he retires. There’s no need for a trustee to be a beneficiary with possible future conflicts with other beneficiaries.
ParticipantThat Jan 2020 Carlsbad price seems suspect as a reflection of the market then. Seems REALLY nice in size, lot, location for 1.34m, even for 1/2020.
The 1.34M price is also only 6% higher than the June 2018 price. So this gain of 28.7% during a 15 month period (still not 30% YoY) came after a period of only a 6% gain over the prior 18 months.
ParticipantI agree with SDR on major factors. Also seems like counties with a larger share of students had larger pop declines. Look at Santa Cruz at -3.5% in one year. Also look how Yolo Co (UC Davis) had a 1.7% loss while next door Sacramento was positive 0.5%.
ParticipantWow I could spend all day on ZillowGoneWild.
I love everything about this one:
It’s both Liberace and Saved by the Bell.
ParticipantZillow says:
“Home values in 92024 have increased 12.3 % (↑) over the past 12 months.”
That seems a bit too low, but it doesn’t look close to 30% either.
ParticipantThe Dow hit 380 in 1929, and didn’t get that high again until 1954.
It was at 600 in both 1959 and 1974. Because inflation was high then, that was about a 40% loss over 15 years when adjusting for inflation.
The 1929 to 1954 0% nominal gain also represents about a 40% inflation adjusted loss over a 25 year period.
While a lot of people are worried about inflation hurting the stock market, I think the larger risk is the share of GDP going to public company profits could decrease substantially due to populist redistributive policies. Both direct cash transfers, but also things like interest rate caps on credit cards and antitrust cases that hurt the profitability of tech monopolies.
We’ll see if the Dems hold Congress next year. If they do, and Biden continues to be more substantially more popular than Trump, ramped up taxes on corporations could be the result.
ParticipantThe past month there’s been a lot more listings, at much higher prices. They sell very quickly.
OB is not unique on this front, but Newport Ave is so much more charming with tons of outdoor dining space and less street parking.
I hope the pedestrianization becomes permanent both here and Garnet Ave, Gaslamp, 5th Ave in Bankers Hill, and all the other areas that ramped up covered outdoor dining.
Zillow keeps sending me e-mails saying I am charging too little rent. I won’t because I am too soft, I have never raised rent in my six years a-landlording.
ParticipantDelinquencies are dropping like a rock.
It was always stupid to count COVID forbearance as delinquency, at least in the headline delinquency rate.
If I wanted to track this closely, I’d exclude forbearance requests from employed people with high credit.
A bunch of people ignorantly or accidentally signed up for COVID forbearance, and banks encouraged it. It reduced prepayment risk when its safe credit clients signed up, and the US Gov was leaning on Chase and WFC to pump up forbearance signups.
In retrospect, the program was successful, and the stimulus package the US passed during COVID was well designed compared to Europe and Japan.
ParticipantEP: Sounds like Park City UT in the summer, except it wasn’t cheap.
A bidding way in a small Utah town, or anywhere outside large coastal cities, sounds like a very bad move for the buyer.
Short term factors could see a 20% jump in prices in one year, but long term Utah should see housing prices rise only at the level of construction costs.
That’s probably on a 2 to 3% long-term growth trendline in middle america.
Utah will see its electricity costs go up when it has to close down its legacy coal power plants. It won’t go up to California levels, but the gap will partly disappear.
ParticipantI just noticed an adaption to the lumber price surge already at Home Depot.
After a few months of no stock or absurd pricing on fence pickets, now they have lower quality lumber in place of redwood and cedar at the old price of about $2 a picket.
ParticipantMy inflation monitors are LCD computer monitors and cow’s milk.
A 24 inch monitor cost $3000 in 2002, and now costs $110.
Milk cost about $2.50 a gallon in the 80s, now is around $3.
Really massive deflation!
ParticipantUp 250% “since April 2020.” In other words, they picked an extreme outlier month as their base month. Not a good start to being “opinionless,” but suggestive of someone hyping inflation risk.
It is common to have outliers in inflation. This is why to measure shorter term inflation, we often use trimmed measures that remove the highest and lowest figures.
https://www.dallasfed.org/research/pce/
Have a look at this chart:
From this article:
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/The-Best-And-Worst-Commodities-In-2020.html
I can find deflation anecdotes like this as easily as inflation anecdotes.
But US elites don’t like the redistributive aspect of inflation, and control the mass media and endlessly and incessantly hype inflation risk.
This bias is so intense and omnipresent that people rarely realize it is there. Here’s a chart to wake you up:
…and you could go further back. we are farther along the great missed call. nailed-it: @agaryshilling steve major @SriKGlobal & select few others… @jmackin2 @WSJ pic.twitter.com/ekEqPzyywO
— tom keene (@tomkeene) December 20, 2020
EVERY SINGLE YEAR since 2005 the “consensus” has been rates will go up over the next 12 months.
PREDICTION: the next fifteen years, every single year the “expert consensus” will continue to be rising rates.
ParticipantGBAB, a taxable muni fund. It will pay about 60k before taxes.
BBN is similar but I like it a tiny bit less.
-
AuthorPosts
