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gzz
Participant3/22/2007 Sold $405,000 (-14.3%) $298/sqft
Now zestimated $850k.
Had to bump because of comment two above this one.
July 13, 2021 at 11:28 AM in reply to: San Diego drastically outperforms Bay and LA on rents #822467ParticipantI haven’t been to Dr. HB in 5+ years.
He’s pretty good still. I liked this comment I saw there:
I work in tech and my co-workers who moved to CA and now rent an apartment in CA are:
1) New college grads who were offered an enormous salary out of college.
2) Not married so they rent a one bedroom apartment.
3) They didn’t even have enough stuff to rent a Uhaul. I saw pictures of new hire who had packed his entire worldly possessions into his Toyota for the move.The enormous salary is not enough to buy a house yet, but it comfortably rents a one bedroom apartment near the beach. You are only young once.
If they stay, gain experience, and job hop for higher salaries, then they may at least qualify to buy a house.
To buy a house in CA since the late 1980’s, a buyer has had to stretch and live frugally. This is not a new thing but it seems to me that more stretching is going on today than ever before.
Historically, if you stretched and purchased a house in the 1990’s and lived very frugally for 15 years, you are likely OK now. Actually, you are probably a millionaire with all of your equity tied up in the house. If you still live there, it would be hard to move to a cold/hot strange place that isn’t close to the beach.
If you rented for the entire time, you are likely poor and have to move due to rising rents.
I went to high school in S. CA in the 1980s. All of my classmate’s parents who purchased a house in the 70’s and 80’s are still there and aging in-place. The parents who rented in the 80’s have long moved away to cheaper places.
If I was just married, in my 30’s, wanted kids, and had no college education and flipped burgers for a living, I would leave also to somewhere where I could qualify for a house.
ParticipantXbox those are overpriced for basic cotton shorts IMO.
However, I see they have teal. I have some early 1990s neon teal Guess? jorts and I always get compliments when I wear them.
ParticipantFintech is a bubble IMO.
Plain old visa works fine.
They seem to target very subprime: people who don’t have $200 for an online purchase.
Or else they just replicate a 50 year old tech…. But with an App! Like square.
Or crypto scams.
It’s not that there’s no market or the companies are bad, just that they’ll never justify their absurd valuations with real cash profits.
Similar for B2B cloud software companies. Tons of them in a fairly mature sector with no profits and P/S above 10. Just how big a market do people think HR and CRM software is?
July 12, 2021 at 11:25 AM in reply to: San Diego drastically outperforms Bay and LA on rents #822454ParticipantWhen I made my first purchase in 2011, and lending was ultra tight, I was able to get a great rate and conforming loan with 5% down. And I was told I could even go a little lower. (I was prepared to put down 10-20%, but the 5% down made more sense.) FHA has long been 3%.
The difference between 3% and 0% isn’t nothing, but a full-doc loan with good income, I don’t see what the big deal is. The big problem with mortgage in the bubble was no-doc liar loans and the various flavors of negative amortization mortgages.
ParticipantWhy would undocumented people be considered for Congressional districting? They can’t vote so they are not represented by definition.
The Constitution says it should be based on the census, excluding only “Indians not taxed.”
Children, disenfranchised felons, and lawful resident aliens have always been included in apportionment and redistricting and cannot vote. Trump did not want to exclude any of these groups, only unlawful aliens.
Another wrinkle with his plan is the line between illegal and legal can be blurred. For example, successful DREAMERS did not break the law when they entered as minors, and have specific authorization to both work and remain in the USA by the federal government. They cannot be deported unless they commit a crime and can work here legally, so they are in the same position as a lawful permanent resident, except that they cannot leave the USA and then return. This legal status is pretty close to what a huge number of unnaturalized immigrants were in in the 1790s, and such people were included in censuses and apportionments.
ParticipantZK: I have yet to pay full price for Prana Stretch Zion items. Even used they aren’t cheap, but $30-50 for Amazon returns and ~$25-30 for used on ebay isn’t too bad. The fact that they attract tons of bidders on ebay when other more famous “designer” items don’t tells you something.
I will probably in the end bite the bullet and pay full retail for the Prana items when I stop losing weight.
If you want to try out the NylonHikingShortsLifeStyle without spending much ($17), I suggest these:
https://www.walmart.com/ip/Wrangler-Men-s-Outdoor-Performance-Zip-Cargo-Short/898069635
I got a couple pairs in the mail today actually, and am wearing one now. Not as good as the $80 ones, but still nylon and very cool. They are about as thin as running shorts, but not low cut and tight, so you can wear them in public. I also like they have cargo pockets, but you barely notice them so you don’t have the sloppy cargo shorts look.
WalMart items are often way oversized, but these fit true to size.
Scaredy: In my journey on the way to nylon, I also tried silk and linen. The silk shorts, by Tommy Bahama, isn’t soft and thin like a silk shirt, and is fairly nice. Linen shorts are also kind of nice, they have a beachy Cuban feel to them. However, both of them wrinkle and stain more than nylon. Finally I tried hemp shorts, which are very close to linen.
ParticipantI would think an EconProf would be proud that CA wasn’t afraid to implement an unpopular pigovian tax on gas. I want it to be even higher personally so people switch to less polluting transport, and we stop the awful arms race of bigger and bigger vehicles to see over and feel safe around the other bigger and bigger vehicles.
Our income tax on the other hand I would like to see cut. May happen given how big the surplus is, $70 billion!
What specific “lavish welfare” program is it you think California has? California was late to mostly abolish its state cash welfare program, called general assistance. But in nearly every county it is gone, and it wasn’t lavish.
The main welfare programs in the USA right now are medicaid and SSDI/SSI, which are mostly and entirely federal funding.
ParticipantMetro Dallas prices are up 25% YoY and inventory down 67%.
https://ntreis.net/download/may-2021-monthly-market-indicators/?wpdmdl=8305
While a big outperformance of national prices would feel good, a national boom is more sustainable and lets our prices grow without hurting our competitiveness.
Longer term, I think Prop 13 and the lack of developable land make SD a better investment than places like Dallas and St George. At some point construction parts and labor will get more reasonable and housing prices there will decline to marginal cost + a fairly small location premium.
ParticipantAnother article on SD rents. This one says we are 10% YoY and beating both CA and USA figures.
Rental Rebound – SD County Sees Double Digit Growth, Return to Pre-Pandemic Levels
ParticipantDidn’t the previous admin intentionally try to undercount the people in this state by excluding undocumented people?
Trump’s plan was to exclude unlawful residents from reapportionment of congressional districts, and give states the option to exclude them from redistricting. It was not to have the census not count them at all.
The effect of the former would be to give rust belt states about 9 more House seats and electoral votes at the expense of CA/TX/NY/FL/NJ. The effect of the latter would be to have more state legislative seats in white and black neighborhoods and fewer in hispanic and asian areas. The states that would have both implemented it, and where it would have had a major effect, is mostly TX and GA.
ParticipantThe Newport Beach and Irvine of SD are La Jolla/Del Mar and Carmel Valley/UTC.
It’s very hard to gain the cluster of amenities the very rich demand, I don’t see how Encinitas and Carlsbad will get them. They have too much tract housing and too little commercial areas.
More likely IMO is that as Encinitas and Carlsbad move upscale, they become more like Dana Point and Solana Beach.
For Mira Mesa, its gentrification is generated by tech workers so I think the best comparisons would be formerly middle class areas of SV like Cupertino and Redwood City.
ParticipantOlegy you had the beat case scenario: no existing structure to work around, no permit fees, no expansion of utilities, and building in a deep recession that hit construction especially hard. And when you add the value for all your labor and no GC markups, you’re still above 200 per sf.
$300/sf might have been possible even in 2018. Not 2021 in San Diego single infill projects.
ParticipantI think your best bet is checking vrbo daily for cancellations. I doubt you will find anything so high end at peak season at the last minute.
Another possible option might be getting 2 adjoining suites at a hotel.
I was at the Del 2 weeks ago, it was jam packed with people who looked like they were not price sensitive, including all the little lowrise cottages and townhouses next to the property.
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