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DZ, yes higher rates hurt at the margin. But not for the 97% of homes with no mortgage or locked in fixed rate. Especially for the buyer wanting to max out his house quality with a given payment.

And for the remaining group, rates are rising with inflation, which positively affects wages, buying power, rents, cost of new construction.

Last time rates popped was a buying opportunity, and it only took a year before you could refi into much lower rates.

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My house has a 30-day change of 6.0%.

Zillow is pretty bad with estimating older areas with drastically different construction quality, views, and lot sizes. I also noticed they will increase a place by 25% in a year and say it went up 5%. Which is OK if they are just saying their old estimates were wrong, but this happens a lot.

They also seem to invariably have a really pessimistic 1 year price projection. During a boom with annual increases of 7% and more, the projection was always 3% to -1%, even when inventory was very low.

I give them credit for still being better than redfin. But it’s also disappointing that Zillow doesn’t seem to be any more accurate than it was 10 years ago. Appraisals are perfect for big data AI.

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“I’m in charge now”

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Should now be titled: RIP Beach House for Sale at Any Price.

Current 92107 inventory of SFH is 5, plus 2 condos.

Same week in 2020 it was 15 houses and 13 condos.

In 2011, it was 80 houses and 50 condos. Inventory is down 98% for condos and and 94% for houses.

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Congratulations, that’s a great area.

By the way, when you’re settled down look into father’s “bonding” time leave from the state. I should be getting $1100/week for 8 weeks, and mom will get a smaller amount.

https://edd.ca.gov/Disability/PFL_Forms_and_Publications.htm

Unlike other state gov programs, the more you make, the more you get back.

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I wish I had just did SPY the last two years. My stocks did about 12% v 40% for the SP500.

This is partly because my risk profile was much lower however. I shorted REITs as a hedge against my large RE rental investment, and most of the rest was in value stocks and bonds.

Stock valuations seemed roughly fair to me in 2019, the giant bull market I did not see coming at all.

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Dude. Stick with real estate

My ability to buy real estate was in large part because I shorted bank stocks in 2006-2007 instead of buying RE like most young professionals my age were doing.

Individual stocks aren’t your thing

I purchased XOM on 1/21/22 for 72.13 and am up 13% since then, plus a 1% quarterly dividend.

I like GOOG, which has done very well this week.

I have some business income coming in. I am putting the largest amount of it into tax free munis. EVM pays 4.4% free of state and federal tax.

The second largest use are value stocks, XOM, SU, T, TD, BNS and VZ. They are all around p/e of 10 and pretty solid companies.

The third largest use are shorting tech stocks that lose tons and tons of money. I may lose money on this, but if the tech bubble keeps up, I will more than make up for these losses with RE appreciation.

INTC has not been a winner. YNDX was for a while, but now below my average. GO has been a big loss, but I am glad I averaged down when it was 23. I really love their Point Loma location.

My current biggest winner unrealized is a put on coinbase that’s up 173%. But I had others expire at 0, so really have about broken even there. My best stock right now is WFC, up 144% since 9/23/20. It is such a solid company I wasn’t worried about buying in big. I don’t know how people can put a big part of their net worth into unprofitable tech companies.

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I see in other threads people are still worried about inflation. Not me!

I again do hope we stay above 4% inflation for years as a partial debt jubilee.

But BBB failed and the GOP had a 90% chance of taking the house.

The days of showering the working and middle class with CovidBux is over.

Just one example, the $300 per child per month tax credit expired this month. For a family of 5 with a median US income of about 50K, that’s a sudden drop in after tax/after rent/mortgage income of about 25%!

Total covid transfer payments were about $5 trillion. Probably 80% of that was spent on goods and services at a time when supply was flat or declining! Kevin Drum has usefully noted that it appears that when the spigot was really gushing with PPP/stim payments/extended unemployment, and a lot was shut down, the funds were heavily saved even by cash constrained households who normally spend all extra funds.

These households however have been gradually spending down excess savings and are now back to normal levels.

In summary, consumer powered demand inflation will disappear. Meanwhile supply shortages that are heavily caused by labor shortages will decline as covid subsides and people return to work. Biden is also relaxing Trump’s immigration controls.

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I see her point, in many respects “homeless” includes both apartment renters and hobos. Both are in serious risk of being priced out forever!

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“ I get 4.1-4.5K easily on homes worth 1M for comparison.”

Well it doesn’t hurt to list for 8k and see if anyone bites. Also easy to see if 8k gets better or worse than his place on zillow.

But the rental pool thins out really fast as you head upmarket.

The supply of people with 100k in annual rent is small because the tax advantage of owning is huge at that 200-350 household income level.

At 2.3m, the purchase price also reflects a trophy property / ownership premium above its utilitarian rental value.

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1. It is quite common for college students to be de facto landlords by holding a lease in their name and screening and collecting from a succession of roommates.

2. If you paid 1.4 and it is worth 2.8, you have a savings of about 14k a year in property taxes. $14,000 PER YEAR. $140k+ over ten years!

That only will go up, and is also a bit of stability too. The net present value of that low assessment is about $350,000-400,000. You lose that permanently if sell without transferring it to a new property, which you are allowed to do at a certain age.

I rent out a 5/3 house worth about 1.8 in OB, rent is below market at $5300.

It is certainly a bit more work than a studio condo, but I’ve made like a million in appreciation, that’s the profit source, not the rent yield.

If your house rents for $70k a year, the property manager may take 7k. And for what, to avoid 3-10 hours of easy work a year? Bad deal!

I dealt with two different detached house property managers when I rented in OB/PB two detached houses (2005-2011 time period). In both cases the property managers didn’t come close to justifying their fees.

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Low HOA monthly dues but big special assessments for major items I think is better for property values than high regular assessments and a big reserve fund.

I also think a big reserve fund tempts the board to pay too much for the regular contractor rather than shop around or consider deferring repairs.

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The HOA manager firm at my condo seems to be wasteful.

If you can avoid having one, do it. We’re too large to avoid it. The old owners occupants are getting to be too old and the newer owners are investors or busy professionals, so nobody really can audit or check them.

To take one example, they pay top dollar for every possible maintenance contract. Repainting the small laundry room that’s about 12×16 cost like $2500.

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You do not owe months of rent if you leave a lease before 12 months. You likely will owe nothing more and your landlord will be happy to find another higher paying tenant.

How about:

4542 Mount Frissell Dr, San Diego, CA 92117

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Hi Surf, I am having a pandemic baby next month too.

I agree 100% with SDR. Buy RIGHT NOW. Even a 5% increase in the next 4 months is a loss to you of 0.05*800k or $40,000!

You should also seriously see how much higher you can go with your budget. Moving gets harder and harder as you age and should be avoided if you can get a place that’s better. I never thought I’d stay in place for 10 years, but I did. I am happy I got something nice and big back then.

We have submarkets here where inventory is 80% below the lowish levels of 2015-2019, or even at zero listings. When I purchased in Ocean Beach in 2011 there were about 40 detached homes and 30 condos to choose from. Now there’s zero condos on the market and the three “
detached listings are actually one duplex and two teardowns of tiny old beater cottages on big lots.

Something I didn’t realize btw is that as soon as you close, you can reduce your tax withholding to reflect your new mortgage interest deduction. Your take home pay will go up by about $600 per month for this reason.

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