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I love gold coin collecting. I focus on Western Europe 1800-1930.

I think they will end up a good investment, but can be sure they’ll never really lose much value.

When you buy the etf you pay an annual fee to the sponsor of 0.4%. 20 years compounded that’s 8.3%! But banks will often give customers free safe deposit boxes.

I recently got a coin that fled the nazis from Norway to the USA and was returned when Norway paid back to the US its war loans. Despite the fun background, they aren’t rare and weren’t much more than spot price.

https://www.hhhistory.com/2019/01/the-rescue-of-norways-gold-wwii-story.html

I also now have all four designs of Queen Wilhelmina of the Netherlands 10 Gulden coin.

Gold coins were not circulated much because of their high value. The most
common size is nicknamed the Napoleon, is a bit bigger than a dime, but has about $380 in value. The smallest common American (the $5 half eagle) and British (sovereign) are a little bigger with about $470 of gold. So they’d be used for a real estate purchase, horse and carriage, high end furniture, a legal bill, or rent. But they mostly sat in bank vaults backing checks.

For this reason, a dime or penny in mint condition from say 1870 is very rare, but the vast majority of gold coins are near mint or mint, and the extra cost for a mint condition is negligible. Like $5 on a $450 coin.

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Isn’t the fed balance sheet already declining?

In any event, I think people overestimate the power of the fed.

An official quarter point increase, yet a 1.25% mortgage rate increase. And despite more fed rate increases likely coming, I’d guess were are getting close to the top of the 30 year rate cycle.

I happen to think the Fed, Obama, Trump, and Biden have all done a basically OK job on economic policy, which is an extremely unpopular position partly because absolutely zero media outlets or pundits take such a line.

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Government spending was gigantic in 2020-2021. PPP, stim checks, extended boosted unemployment, etc.

Going back to normal pre covid spending is deflationary.

What’s interesting is that the inflationary effects of the big spending boost was partially delayed. People got a lot of free fed money in 2020, but they were insecure and pessimistic so banked it, paid off debt, etc. Spending opportunities were also lower because of shutdowns.

This isn’t just a theory, Kevin Drum has been tracking this and showed a sudden huge boost to household savings in 2020 that was spent down in late 2021 and 2022.

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Here’s a question for you. When should I change the oil if I drive 3k miles a year?

I am at 1500 and 6mo mark right now.

Years ago I researched this and came up with every 6 months for a consistent lower mileage driver.

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I suppose now a hot new japanese CUV model at msrp might not be great. 6 months ago, it certainly was. The rav4 was consistently going for 5k over msrp.

I got premium awd. Basically the top non-turbo spec. I wanted specifically either a bright red, blue, or green car with white or light tan full leather.

Cx30 is a new and lower volume model than cx5 which is by far the most popular mazda.

2k under msrp just wasn’t happening, especially if you want a specific combo in a hot segment, and japanese make in California. I could have got $500 off, but the 36 month 0% was worth much more, about $1800 if my alternate investment is a tax free muni fund at 4%.

I first went to the Kearney Mesa dealer, which subsequently closed for renovations.

They had -40 CX5s in stock, and 0-4 of every other model. It was surreal.

The National City dealer I went with wasn’t quite as extreme, but still half of inventory was cx5, with a smattering of 3 sedans, 3 hatches, and less than 3 each of cx9, cx3, and mazda 6 sedan. Both places had zero cx30 in stock when I visited.

I feel that 2022 MSRPs went up and chip shortages lessened, so the giant premiums went away. Though my vehicle specifically didn’t seem to get much if a msrp bump, and they made awd standard.

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I purchased a mazda cx30 crossover at MSRP in September. They did a 3 year 0% loan too.

They basically would sell them within 2 days of arrival at the dealer. I just waited for one to pop up on their website, test drove it, bought it, made the salesman’s life easy as possible. He did try to charge an extra 2k market adjustment at first, but I moved on and called him back a week later and he changed his mind.

There’s no point in buying used now IMO if you can afford a new one.

I adore the car. Zero problems, and the best drive and interior out of the 6 I did test drives of and 15 I sat in. If you want a small CUV with awd, full leather, and drives like a car not an SUV, try it out.

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“ run up huge personal lines of credit at end of life and then die?
Is this commonly done?”

Not too often. The elderly aren’t big on extravagant living.

That’s why our aging society will tend toward deflation and low to negative rates: higher desired savings than creditworthy borrowers.

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Zuckerberg had a mortgage on his $10 million house in Palo Alto, which represents less than 0.02% of his net worth.

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I see the 15 year went up much less. For a while you only saved like .3 with a 15 and <0.1% with a 20. SDR’s aimloan link shows a 0.75% savings with a 15 and .375 with a 20.

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“ Death is pretty much an equal opportunity”

When I was a teenager in the 1990s, I assumed high tech medical advances would make death avoidable by the 2060s when I will be in my 80s.

Like the promise of flying cars that let down boomer children, looks like this won’t happen. But the cell phones of 2060 will have 48 cores and literally no bezel at all. I may want in 2060 a jitterbug phone that looks like a 2005 razr with bigger physical buttons.

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“ At least with stocks you sell a smaller amount each year to avoid the highest 23.8 rate. You could probably get the 0 or 15 rate when retired and 15 or 18.8 rate when working.”

Exactly. And wait to move out of CA to sell stock.

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Yeah I may do a 1031. I live in a tear down and own another bigger one next door that is a rental. The value is 98% in the land, which I am not capable of developing to its highest and best use, which is either 8 market rate townhouses or 30 apartments, with six of them affordable.

I could 1031 exchange to a fully developed duplex or triplex.

That solves part of my problem, I am tired of living in a little tear down on a golden lot. I would still be extremely over-invested in RE.

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Interest rates are headed back down.

Already, real interest rates are -3% (7% inflation 4% mortgage).

Inflation is probably headed back down in a year or two. We’ll be back to 1.5-3% inflation and 2.5-3% rates.

But while inflation itself can be hard to predict, real interest rates are easier.

Rich people have more and more money they want to invest rather than purchase consumption items.

The pool of creditworthy borrowers, however, is in permanent demographic decline.

Places like Germany and Japan, where demographic decline is more advanced than the USA, have had deeply negative real rates for a long time.

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Another solution is to sell my property in 5% chunks over 20 years to stay in a lower tax bracket.

Could I sell to a REIT in return for REIT shares that I can sell at my pleasure?

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Hot coffee gives me jitters, but i can and often do drink 4 cups of black cold coffee a day.

Yerba mate sparkling water is a nice change too, especially on a hot day. Better taste than black or green tea.

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