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gzz
ParticipantI doubt there was especially significant compositional changes from Feb 2020 to Feb 2022 in most SD zip codes.
A bigger issue perhaps would be small sample size, especially in the smaller zips.
Another issue is that some areas have major flipper renovations between sales while they are rare in others. This effect is largest in hot areas with older stock like Claremont, and less significant in new areas and the poshest areas where relatively few homes are in poor shape and extremely dated. So if 20% of Claremont homes have a 50k flip renovation and the average price is 1M, that means the zip’s appreciation is overstated by about 1%. Not a huge amount in this market, but 1% a year also does add up.
ParticipantMy conviction in energy stocks is growing. I don’t expect huge returns necessarily, but think the likelihood of the large and megacaps to go up 25% in 1-3 years is quite high. Meanwhile 4% dividends and huge share buybacks.
The moment China gives up its failing covid lockdowns, the world’s largest importer will suddenly see a wave of demand. Sanctions and loss of Western production parts and tech will squeeze then strangle Russian production. I think the decline curve will look like Venezuela’s.
ParticipantI followed that Terra Luna thing yesterday after never hearing of it before.
They are all technobabble ponzi schemes IMO. Terra like so many of them advertised “safe” 20% APR. Same MO as IceSave, Allen Sanford, and many other ponzis, even our local Capenella restaurant Ponzi scheme lady.
I covered 80% of my COIN short and 25% of my MSTR short and 75% of my SQ short.
My best short prices on Coin are 190 and 700s for MSTR. They are at the point where delaying capital gains taxes outweighs risk of holding them.
GO popped 16% today too and I exited 1/3 of my position. It is my favorite grocery all around and growing quickly, but it is no longer undervalued IMO.
ParticipantEmployers too often have an attitude of entitlement to cheap labor, and we Americans excessively valorize “job creators” like they are providing a gratuitous service.
People think when they charge higher prices it is because of the merit of their labor, product or service but when someone else raises prices it is unfair inflation.
Over the past 45 years corporate profits have taken a larger share of GDP and labor a small share. I haven’t seen the numbers yet, but if employers are making less because of rising wages, I think that’s great.
ParticipantAnd I said more high end isn’t a negative outside of a temporary effect limited to the directly competing supply.
The issue is a large percentage of your comments are nasty to other posters here. Cut it out.
ParticipantSDR, quit being smug and pedantic. You aren’t even disagreeing with what I said.
ParticipantAy carumba!
My COIN puts purchased for ~$200 and sold for $500-1000 are now worth $5000-8000 each.
A 30-bagger, lost because of my tendency to “take profits.”
I am glad it is hard to sell RE, I probably would have panic sold something during the covid early days when I saw all the cell phone videos of people dropping dead in the streets in China and freaked me out.
ParticipantI have two detached sfh and a condo in OB and monitor the market carefully. When a huge lux apartment complex opened a mile east on a large former public school site, I feel it caused rent growth to slow down for a year, especially at the high end.
Similarly, the opening of the 28 unit Upper Voltaire townhouse condo project on OB’s eastern fringe I think caused the townhouse market to stall for a year while the units got absorbed. Right now there are zero townhouses on the market in OB, and typically about 15 sell per year. So a two year supply hitting the market at once wasn’t good.
In both cases, the negative effect seems to have been temporary and probably completely gone within another year.
As for density, it is bad if it is right on your block. Otherwise, it depends. More high end housing brings more amenities. Three of the most valuable parts of SD are dense with high end residents: downtown LJ, Coronado, and Little Italy.
ParticipantDupe
ParticipantMstr down 22% today, coin -18%, tesla -7%, sq -14%.
Maybe I can stay solvent longer than the market can be irrational!
May 7, 2022 at 8:34 AM in reply to: Megadrought Threatens California Power Blackouts This Summer #825426ParticipantMost of the train money is coming from the federal government.
It still should be cancelled.
From 2009-3/2020 I flew to the bay area about 10 times per year.
Only 1 time since then.
About 90% of court hearings now are video or telephone conference. Bluejeans, zoom. MS Teams, I do them all. State, federal, appellate. All remote.
Intra-city transit is also cheaper, used more, and has larger environmental benefits. Those above ground muni trams in SF were awful, usually packed to the brim with people and barely moving faster than a brisk walk.
ParticipantMy friend has a e-tail consulting business and has a lot of Ukrainian employees. We need to make sure they have productive software jobs so they don’t turn to ransomware.
I was short DDOG and covered after a year at no gain. It went way up and back down and I lost patience.
ParticipantThanks for your thoughts.
Sorry there was a typo. Not MSFT, but MSTR. That has been a real winner for me, and I’ve locked in gains by selling the puts I purchased months ago while remaining short.
TSLA is now worth more than every other auto public company combined. You think that will go up to be 3x everyone else combined?
I believe they are not a leader in self driving. GM, not Tesla, has self driving taxis in SF. And Google does in Phoenix. They have slipped behind VW in Europe and BYD in China in electric car sales.
Tesla is certainly a premium brand people will pay a lot of money for, but their cars seem kind of dated compared to the electric Mustang. I think they remain a niche player selling premium electric cars only.
For SQ, their bitcoin business is collapsing, down 50% YoY. Their merchant service and cashapp are low margin and ultra competitive and money-losing. I covered half my position today, but will reshort any rally.
Just in everyday life, i have done P2P payments with paypal, google pay, and zelle. I have never used venmo, but know many people who do. I have never once heard IRL a word about SQ’s cashapp. They are losers in a market where they have to compete with free products with big network effects.
The only time i ever hear about cashapp online is online begging.
Finally they overpaid for a “pay later” company that is far behind affirm in market share, and affirm is circling the drain.
WE 1.0 was nearly bankrupt, but bailed out and restructured by softbank and then went public by spac and merger . They continue to lose billions. I am cautious only because it is heavily shorted, smallcap, and could squeeze.
ParticipantGood performance for me lately. My conservative longs go down a little, my shorts plunge. Only TSLA and WE have yet to collapse. LYFT, SQ, MSFT, COIN, DASH, UBER, NET: all disasters. I regret missing CVNA.
Biggest long position now is XOM. I think China demand is coming back heavy when they give up on lockdowns and Russia supply will drop with sanctions and parts and service issues.
Biden also released so much oil from the SPR this year that it is at record lows and they are planning to start restocking now.
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