[gdcox]

Quality thinking material there and hard to argue with your logic as someone not intimate with the area. A further 30 % is not assumed in Wall St by the way!!. Though the apartment sector there or in all of SD does not represent the whole country, it may represent the mortgage sectors whose negative dynamic is causing all the damage.

Bugs, would appreciate knowing where El Cajon sits in terms of the quality of typical mortgagees. Is it sub-prime boom walkers or Alt A long term sitters who don’t want to mess with their credit rating or……….?
Thanks
Graham

[gdcox]

Quality thinking material there and hard to argue with your logic as someone not intimate with the area. A further 30 % is not assumed in Wall St by the way!!. Though the apartment sector there or in all of SD does not represent the whole country, it may represent the mortgage sectors whose negative dynamic is causing all the damage.

Bugs, would appreciate knowing where El Cajon sits in terms of the quality of typical mortgagees. Is it sub-prime boom walkers or Alt A long term sitters who don’t want to mess with their credit rating or……….?
Thanks
Graham

[gdcox]

Quality thinking material there and hard to argue with your logic as someone not intimate with the area. A further 30 % is not assumed in Wall St by the way!!. Though the apartment sector there or in all of SD does not represent the whole country, it may represent the mortgage sectors whose negative dynamic is causing all the damage.

Bugs, would appreciate knowing where El Cajon sits in terms of the quality of typical mortgagees. Is it sub-prime boom walkers or Alt A long term sitters who don’t want to mess with their credit rating or……….?
Thanks
Graham

[gdcox]

Quality thinking material there and hard to argue with your logic as someone not intimate with the area. A further 30 % is not assumed in Wall St by the way!!. Though the apartment sector there or in all of SD does not represent the whole country, it may represent the mortgage sectors whose negative dynamic is causing all the damage.

Bugs, would appreciate knowing where El Cajon sits in terms of the quality of typical mortgagees. Is it sub-prime boom walkers or Alt A long term sitters who don’t want to mess with their credit rating or……….?
Thanks
Graham

[gdcox]

Quality thinking material there and hard to argue with your logic as someone not intimate with the area. A further 30 % is not assumed in Wall St by the way!!. Though the apartment sector there or in all of SD does not represent the whole country, it may represent the mortgage sectors whose negative dynamic is causing all the damage.

Bugs, would appreciate knowing where El Cajon sits in terms of the quality of typical mortgagees. Is it sub-prime boom walkers or Alt A long term sitters who don’t want to mess with their credit rating or……….?
Thanks
Graham

[gdcox]

Graham

Inflation worries hit Treasuries
Tony Crescenzi, chief bond market strategist, Miller Tabak

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which climbed 12 basis points, to 3.89%, threatens the nascent strength in mortgage refinancing activity. The root of the rate rise is inflation after China reported its consumer price index soared 7.1% year-over-year in January, the most it has risen since September, 1996. Adding to inflation worries is today’s surge to a new record high for the CRB index and a surge in industrial materials prices. The dollar’s drop is probably playing a role, but the dollar has moved mostly sideways over the past four months.

Mortgage rates had fallen far enough below the average mortgage rate paid by existing mortgage holders to spark the refinancing wave, but this has now changed. It takes an incentive of about 50 basis points to encourage refinancing activity, but the move up in yield has reduced the average refinancing incentive for holders of conventional conforming mortgages down to about 25 basis points. The rise in mortgage rates is the biggest negative in today’s developments. Rates were low for too short a time to make a real dent in the mortgage equation. With housing the economy’s biggest problem, this is why, in an odd way, it would be better for the markets to be gloomy, as it would keep mortgage rates low for longer and help to spur significant mortgage refinancings and dull the impact of mortgage resets.

[gdcox]

Graham

Inflation worries hit Treasuries
Tony Crescenzi, chief bond market strategist, Miller Tabak

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which climbed 12 basis points, to 3.89%, threatens the nascent strength in mortgage refinancing activity. The root of the rate rise is inflation after China reported its consumer price index soared 7.1% year-over-year in January, the most it has risen since September, 1996. Adding to inflation worries is today’s surge to a new record high for the CRB index and a surge in industrial materials prices. The dollar’s drop is probably playing a role, but the dollar has moved mostly sideways over the past four months.

Mortgage rates had fallen far enough below the average mortgage rate paid by existing mortgage holders to spark the refinancing wave, but this has now changed. It takes an incentive of about 50 basis points to encourage refinancing activity, but the move up in yield has reduced the average refinancing incentive for holders of conventional conforming mortgages down to about 25 basis points. The rise in mortgage rates is the biggest negative in today’s developments. Rates were low for too short a time to make a real dent in the mortgage equation. With housing the economy’s biggest problem, this is why, in an odd way, it would be better for the markets to be gloomy, as it would keep mortgage rates low for longer and help to spur significant mortgage refinancings and dull the impact of mortgage resets.

[gdcox]

Graham

Inflation worries hit Treasuries
Tony Crescenzi, chief bond market strategist, Miller Tabak

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which climbed 12 basis points, to 3.89%, threatens the nascent strength in mortgage refinancing activity. The root of the rate rise is inflation after China reported its consumer price index soared 7.1% year-over-year in January, the most it has risen since September, 1996. Adding to inflation worries is today’s surge to a new record high for the CRB index and a surge in industrial materials prices. The dollar’s drop is probably playing a role, but the dollar has moved mostly sideways over the past four months.

Mortgage rates had fallen far enough below the average mortgage rate paid by existing mortgage holders to spark the refinancing wave, but this has now changed. It takes an incentive of about 50 basis points to encourage refinancing activity, but the move up in yield has reduced the average refinancing incentive for holders of conventional conforming mortgages down to about 25 basis points. The rise in mortgage rates is the biggest negative in today’s developments. Rates were low for too short a time to make a real dent in the mortgage equation. With housing the economy’s biggest problem, this is why, in an odd way, it would be better for the markets to be gloomy, as it would keep mortgage rates low for longer and help to spur significant mortgage refinancings and dull the impact of mortgage resets.

[gdcox]

Graham

Inflation worries hit Treasuries
Tony Crescenzi, chief bond market strategist, Miller Tabak

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which climbed 12 basis points, to 3.89%, threatens the nascent strength in mortgage refinancing activity. The root of the rate rise is inflation after China reported its consumer price index soared 7.1% year-over-year in January, the most it has risen since September, 1996. Adding to inflation worries is today’s surge to a new record high for the CRB index and a surge in industrial materials prices. The dollar’s drop is probably playing a role, but the dollar has moved mostly sideways over the past four months.

Mortgage rates had fallen far enough below the average mortgage rate paid by existing mortgage holders to spark the refinancing wave, but this has now changed. It takes an incentive of about 50 basis points to encourage refinancing activity, but the move up in yield has reduced the average refinancing incentive for holders of conventional conforming mortgages down to about 25 basis points. The rise in mortgage rates is the biggest negative in today’s developments. Rates were low for too short a time to make a real dent in the mortgage equation. With housing the economy’s biggest problem, this is why, in an odd way, it would be better for the markets to be gloomy, as it would keep mortgage rates low for longer and help to spur significant mortgage refinancings and dull the impact of mortgage resets.

[gdcox]

Graham

Inflation worries hit Treasuries
Tony Crescenzi, chief bond market strategist, Miller Tabak

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which climbed 12 basis points, to 3.89%, threatens the nascent strength in mortgage refinancing activity. The root of the rate rise is inflation after China reported its consumer price index soared 7.1% year-over-year in January, the most it has risen since September, 1996. Adding to inflation worries is today’s surge to a new record high for the CRB index and a surge in industrial materials prices. The dollar’s drop is probably playing a role, but the dollar has moved mostly sideways over the past four months.

Mortgage rates had fallen far enough below the average mortgage rate paid by existing mortgage holders to spark the refinancing wave, but this has now changed. It takes an incentive of about 50 basis points to encourage refinancing activity, but the move up in yield has reduced the average refinancing incentive for holders of conventional conforming mortgages down to about 25 basis points. The rise in mortgage rates is the biggest negative in today’s developments. Rates were low for too short a time to make a real dent in the mortgage equation. With housing the economy’s biggest problem, this is why, in an odd way, it would be better for the markets to be gloomy, as it would keep mortgage rates low for longer and help to spur significant mortgage refinancings and dull the impact of mortgage resets.

[gdcox]

Graham

A few facts from across the pond for interest. Northern Rock depended on securitizing the bulk of the loans it made and funded most of its balance sheet form interbank deposits. Its stupid business model ensured it would become bankrupt through liquidity one day. Its net asset position is good.

Lending standards are far higher in the UK than in the US and especially SD from what I read on this fascinating site. There has been no Bush government here to stop the regulators keeping a close eye on the actions of brokers for example.It is far from perfect but an order of magnitude less bad than in SD I would say.

Our house price to incomes ratio is very high in the UK . However, unlike most of the US , there is a severe shortage of land due to incredibly tight out of town planning rules. So demand and supply are quite well matched and thus there is little price weakness and hence very little of what is perceptibly described on this site as ‘bubble foreclosures’. Foreclosures are rising due to higher interest rates caused by the credit crisis interacting with the excessive overall indebtedness of some people.

A mixed picture: eg http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aTmi4vMk92U8&refer=home

[gdcox]

Graham

A few facts from across the pond for interest. Northern Rock depended on securitizing the bulk of the loans it made and funded most of its balance sheet form interbank deposits. Its stupid business model ensured it would become bankrupt through liquidity one day. Its net asset position is good.

Lending standards are far higher in the UK than in the US and especially SD from what I read on this fascinating site. There has been no Bush government here to stop the regulators keeping a close eye on the actions of brokers for example.It is far from perfect but an order of magnitude less bad than in SD I would say.

Our house price to incomes ratio is very high in the UK . However, unlike most of the US , there is a severe shortage of land due to incredibly tight out of town planning rules. So demand and supply are quite well matched and thus there is little price weakness and hence very little of what is perceptibly described on this site as ‘bubble foreclosures’. Foreclosures are rising due to higher interest rates caused by the credit crisis interacting with the excessive overall indebtedness of some people.

A mixed picture: eg http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aTmi4vMk92U8&refer=home

[gdcox]

Graham

A few facts from across the pond for interest. Northern Rock depended on securitizing the bulk of the loans it made and funded most of its balance sheet form interbank deposits. Its stupid business model ensured it would become bankrupt through liquidity one day. Its net asset position is good.

Lending standards are far higher in the UK than in the US and especially SD from what I read on this fascinating site. There has been no Bush government here to stop the regulators keeping a close eye on the actions of brokers for example.It is far from perfect but an order of magnitude less bad than in SD I would say.

Our house price to incomes ratio is very high in the UK . However, unlike most of the US , there is a severe shortage of land due to incredibly tight out of town planning rules. So demand and supply are quite well matched and thus there is little price weakness and hence very little of what is perceptibly described on this site as ‘bubble foreclosures’. Foreclosures are rising due to higher interest rates caused by the credit crisis interacting with the excessive overall indebtedness of some people.

A mixed picture: eg http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aTmi4vMk92U8&refer=home

[gdcox]

Graham

A few facts from across the pond for interest. Northern Rock depended on securitizing the bulk of the loans it made and funded most of its balance sheet form interbank deposits. Its stupid business model ensured it would become bankrupt through liquidity one day. Its net asset position is good.

Lending standards are far higher in the UK than in the US and especially SD from what I read on this fascinating site. There has been no Bush government here to stop the regulators keeping a close eye on the actions of brokers for example.It is far from perfect but an order of magnitude less bad than in SD I would say.

Our house price to incomes ratio is very high in the UK . However, unlike most of the US , there is a severe shortage of land due to incredibly tight out of town planning rules. So demand and supply are quite well matched and thus there is little price weakness and hence very little of what is perceptibly described on this site as ‘bubble foreclosures’. Foreclosures are rising due to higher interest rates caused by the credit crisis interacting with the excessive overall indebtedness of some people.

A mixed picture: eg http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aTmi4vMk92U8&refer=home

[gdcox]

Graham

A few facts from across the pond for interest. Northern Rock depended on securitizing the bulk of the loans it made and funded most of its balance sheet form interbank deposits. Its stupid business model ensured it would become bankrupt through liquidity one day. Its net asset position is good.

Lending standards are far higher in the UK than in the US and especially SD from what I read on this fascinating site. There has been no Bush government here to stop the regulators keeping a close eye on the actions of brokers for example.It is far from perfect but an order of magnitude less bad than in SD I would say.

Our house price to incomes ratio is very high in the UK . However, unlike most of the US , there is a severe shortage of land due to incredibly tight out of town planning rules. So demand and supply are quite well matched and thus there is little price weakness and hence very little of what is perceptibly described on this site as ‘bubble foreclosures’. Foreclosures are rising due to higher interest rates caused by the credit crisis interacting with the excessive overall indebtedness of some people.

A mixed picture: eg http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aTmi4vMk92U8&refer=home

[Author]

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