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(former)FormerSanDiegan
Participant[quote=jpinpb][quote=FormerSanDiegan]
Example:
2010 Clairemont
400K purchase
2,000 rent
Monthly mortgage = 1574
monthly taxes ~ 400
[/quote]Doing different math. Back in 1996 one could buy in Clairemont as a starter home w/minimum down.
Today’s numbers. 400k w/3.5 % down (+closing costs) 4.5% x 30 years comes to 1,956 + prop tax 333 + PMI? not sure, about 350? + insurance? 75? comes to about $2,700 a month.
Don’t want to do FHA, which is a high percentage of purchases lately. Even w/%5 down, those numbers work out to 1,925 + 333 + 350 +75 is close to $2,700.
Considering 92117 is not exactly prime SD and lagging school distrcit, I really wonder how many people have almost 100k to put 20% down and closing costs to live in Clairemont.[/quote]
If you want to compare minimum down, that’s fine. Let’s apply it to both situations.
2010: 3.5% down ~ 2700/month (35% or $700 premium over rent
1996: 3.5% down ~ 1520 / month (38% or 420 premium over rent)
P&I :~1150
Taxes: 170
PMI: 150
Insurance: 50Actually, this case more resembles what we did. We paid 5% down, and our PITI + PMI was about $1450 per month.
At that time we had a dual income, working professionals a couple years out of school, one of us with a PhD in Engineering, the other working as an Architect. Clairemont is what we could afford as a starter in 1996.
The same area is more affordable today by many metrics.
Participant[quote=protorio]
… Some streets in 92111 (Alcala Knolls, and around Mt. Everst) have some lower-priced 60s houses.
…
Clairemont is still out of reach and the cheap places are ticky-tacky.[/quote]
protorio – Back before web-driven, zip-code-defined neighborhood definitions became popular, that area of the Mount streets (south of Balboa, west of Genesee) was called Clairemont (even though it’s in 92111).
I think it is still considered Clairemont by those that live there.
Participant[quote=protorio]
… Some streets in 92111 (Alcala Knolls, and around Mt. Everst) have some lower-priced 60s houses.
…
Clairemont is still out of reach and the cheap places are ticky-tacky.[/quote]
protorio – Back before web-driven, zip-code-defined neighborhood definitions became popular, that area of the Mount streets (south of Balboa, west of Genesee) was called Clairemont (even though it’s in 92111).
I think it is still considered Clairemont by those that live there.
Participant[quote=protorio]
… Some streets in 92111 (Alcala Knolls, and around Mt. Everst) have some lower-priced 60s houses.
…
Clairemont is still out of reach and the cheap places are ticky-tacky.[/quote]
protorio – Back before web-driven, zip-code-defined neighborhood definitions became popular, that area of the Mount streets (south of Balboa, west of Genesee) was called Clairemont (even though it’s in 92111).
I think it is still considered Clairemont by those that live there.
Participant[quote=protorio]
… Some streets in 92111 (Alcala Knolls, and around Mt. Everst) have some lower-priced 60s houses.
…
Clairemont is still out of reach and the cheap places are ticky-tacky.[/quote]
protorio – Back before web-driven, zip-code-defined neighborhood definitions became popular, that area of the Mount streets (south of Balboa, west of Genesee) was called Clairemont (even though it’s in 92111).
I think it is still considered Clairemont by those that live there.
Participant[quote=protorio]
… Some streets in 92111 (Alcala Knolls, and around Mt. Everst) have some lower-priced 60s houses.
…
Clairemont is still out of reach and the cheap places are ticky-tacky.[/quote]
protorio – Back before web-driven, zip-code-defined neighborhood definitions became popular, that area of the Mount streets (south of Balboa, west of Genesee) was called Clairemont (even though it’s in 92111).
I think it is still considered Clairemont by those that live there.
Participant[quote=jstoesz]Those curves imo are kind of useless. I don’t want really affordable payments on a vastly overpriced asset. That is a recipe for a complete disaster. Not just a small disaster, but end of your fiscal life type disaster.
Furthermore, that is SD county which has on the aggregate come down. This includes all manner of neighborhoods, from Jamul to la jolla. I would like to see that curve by zip code. Now that would be enlightening.[/quote]
I disagree about the uselessness of these curves. These are approximately the ratios for areas like Clairemont. Areas like Clairemont are more affordable on a monthly basis (relative to income or rents) than they have been for most of the past three decades.
It might get more affordable in the future, but it’s not meaningless.
I purchased a house in Clairemont in spring 1996, one of the most affordable points of the last 20 years. Let’s compare affordability then to today…
Here are the approximate numbers for that house:
1996 Price: 165K
monthly mortgage (80% LTV, 8.25% 30-yr fixed) : 991
monthly taxes: 170
Total mort+ taxes : ~ 1160That house would have rented for about $1000. (I actually rented it out 5 years later for $1200).
Example:
2010 Clairemont
400K purchase
2,000 rentMonthly mortgage = 1574
monthly taxes ~ 400My point is NOT that you should buy today or that there aren’t better investments or that prices won’t go down (they probably will for the next few months). My point is that right now, many places in San Diego are more affordable (relative to rent) than they have been for at least a generation.
Participant[quote=jstoesz]Those curves imo are kind of useless. I don’t want really affordable payments on a vastly overpriced asset. That is a recipe for a complete disaster. Not just a small disaster, but end of your fiscal life type disaster.
Furthermore, that is SD county which has on the aggregate come down. This includes all manner of neighborhoods, from Jamul to la jolla. I would like to see that curve by zip code. Now that would be enlightening.[/quote]
I disagree about the uselessness of these curves. These are approximately the ratios for areas like Clairemont. Areas like Clairemont are more affordable on a monthly basis (relative to income or rents) than they have been for most of the past three decades.
It might get more affordable in the future, but it’s not meaningless.
I purchased a house in Clairemont in spring 1996, one of the most affordable points of the last 20 years. Let’s compare affordability then to today…
Here are the approximate numbers for that house:
1996 Price: 165K
monthly mortgage (80% LTV, 8.25% 30-yr fixed) : 991
monthly taxes: 170
Total mort+ taxes : ~ 1160That house would have rented for about $1000. (I actually rented it out 5 years later for $1200).
Example:
2010 Clairemont
400K purchase
2,000 rentMonthly mortgage = 1574
monthly taxes ~ 400My point is NOT that you should buy today or that there aren’t better investments or that prices won’t go down (they probably will for the next few months). My point is that right now, many places in San Diego are more affordable (relative to rent) than they have been for at least a generation.
Participant[quote=jstoesz]Those curves imo are kind of useless. I don’t want really affordable payments on a vastly overpriced asset. That is a recipe for a complete disaster. Not just a small disaster, but end of your fiscal life type disaster.
Furthermore, that is SD county which has on the aggregate come down. This includes all manner of neighborhoods, from Jamul to la jolla. I would like to see that curve by zip code. Now that would be enlightening.[/quote]
I disagree about the uselessness of these curves. These are approximately the ratios for areas like Clairemont. Areas like Clairemont are more affordable on a monthly basis (relative to income or rents) than they have been for most of the past three decades.
It might get more affordable in the future, but it’s not meaningless.
I purchased a house in Clairemont in spring 1996, one of the most affordable points of the last 20 years. Let’s compare affordability then to today…
Here are the approximate numbers for that house:
1996 Price: 165K
monthly mortgage (80% LTV, 8.25% 30-yr fixed) : 991
monthly taxes: 170
Total mort+ taxes : ~ 1160That house would have rented for about $1000. (I actually rented it out 5 years later for $1200).
Example:
2010 Clairemont
400K purchase
2,000 rentMonthly mortgage = 1574
monthly taxes ~ 400My point is NOT that you should buy today or that there aren’t better investments or that prices won’t go down (they probably will for the next few months). My point is that right now, many places in San Diego are more affordable (relative to rent) than they have been for at least a generation.
Participant[quote=jstoesz]Those curves imo are kind of useless. I don’t want really affordable payments on a vastly overpriced asset. That is a recipe for a complete disaster. Not just a small disaster, but end of your fiscal life type disaster.
Furthermore, that is SD county which has on the aggregate come down. This includes all manner of neighborhoods, from Jamul to la jolla. I would like to see that curve by zip code. Now that would be enlightening.[/quote]
I disagree about the uselessness of these curves. These are approximately the ratios for areas like Clairemont. Areas like Clairemont are more affordable on a monthly basis (relative to income or rents) than they have been for most of the past three decades.
It might get more affordable in the future, but it’s not meaningless.
I purchased a house in Clairemont in spring 1996, one of the most affordable points of the last 20 years. Let’s compare affordability then to today…
Here are the approximate numbers for that house:
1996 Price: 165K
monthly mortgage (80% LTV, 8.25% 30-yr fixed) : 991
monthly taxes: 170
Total mort+ taxes : ~ 1160That house would have rented for about $1000. (I actually rented it out 5 years later for $1200).
Example:
2010 Clairemont
400K purchase
2,000 rentMonthly mortgage = 1574
monthly taxes ~ 400My point is NOT that you should buy today or that there aren’t better investments or that prices won’t go down (they probably will for the next few months). My point is that right now, many places in San Diego are more affordable (relative to rent) than they have been for at least a generation.
Participant[quote=jstoesz]Those curves imo are kind of useless. I don’t want really affordable payments on a vastly overpriced asset. That is a recipe for a complete disaster. Not just a small disaster, but end of your fiscal life type disaster.
Furthermore, that is SD county which has on the aggregate come down. This includes all manner of neighborhoods, from Jamul to la jolla. I would like to see that curve by zip code. Now that would be enlightening.[/quote]
I disagree about the uselessness of these curves. These are approximately the ratios for areas like Clairemont. Areas like Clairemont are more affordable on a monthly basis (relative to income or rents) than they have been for most of the past three decades.
It might get more affordable in the future, but it’s not meaningless.
I purchased a house in Clairemont in spring 1996, one of the most affordable points of the last 20 years. Let’s compare affordability then to today…
Here are the approximate numbers for that house:
1996 Price: 165K
monthly mortgage (80% LTV, 8.25% 30-yr fixed) : 991
monthly taxes: 170
Total mort+ taxes : ~ 1160That house would have rented for about $1000. (I actually rented it out 5 years later for $1200).
Example:
2010 Clairemont
400K purchase
2,000 rentMonthly mortgage = 1574
monthly taxes ~ 400My point is NOT that you should buy today or that there aren’t better investments or that prices won’t go down (they probably will for the next few months). My point is that right now, many places in San Diego are more affordable (relative to rent) than they have been for at least a generation.
Participant[quote=protorio]
But to be honest, things are getting affordable in more normal San Diegan neighborhoods. I’ve seen a lot of nice normal houses between 300-350K in family neighborhoods.
I’d be happy to live in other parts of the country. But I’m glad I’m here.[/quote]
I agree that there are some affordable options. In my opinion, if you can’t swing a house financially in San Diego today, odds are that you probably never will (barring salary increase, career change graduating, etc) …
(For those who can afford, but are holding off for various reasons, willingness and readiness are separate issues. There may be plenty of other valid reasons to hold off. I am strictly talking ability here).According to Rich’s figures, affordability is at or near a 35-year high. Monthly payments, relative to rent or relative to income are as low as have been measured for at least 33 years.
Here is a link to his figures, with the one’s I am referring to below for convenience…
[img_assist|nid=14211|title=SD payment-to-rent ratio|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=432|height=334]
[img_assist|nid=14212|title=SD payment-to-income ratio|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=436|height=335]
Participant[quote=protorio]
But to be honest, things are getting affordable in more normal San Diegan neighborhoods. I’ve seen a lot of nice normal houses between 300-350K in family neighborhoods.
I’d be happy to live in other parts of the country. But I’m glad I’m here.[/quote]
I agree that there are some affordable options. In my opinion, if you can’t swing a house financially in San Diego today, odds are that you probably never will (barring salary increase, career change graduating, etc) …
(For those who can afford, but are holding off for various reasons, willingness and readiness are separate issues. There may be plenty of other valid reasons to hold off. I am strictly talking ability here).According to Rich’s figures, affordability is at or near a 35-year high. Monthly payments, relative to rent or relative to income are as low as have been measured for at least 33 years.
Here is a link to his figures, with the one’s I am referring to below for convenience…
[img_assist|nid=14211|title=SD payment-to-rent ratio|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=432|height=334]
[img_assist|nid=14212|title=SD payment-to-income ratio|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=436|height=335]
Participant[quote=protorio]
But to be honest, things are getting affordable in more normal San Diegan neighborhoods. I’ve seen a lot of nice normal houses between 300-350K in family neighborhoods.
I’d be happy to live in other parts of the country. But I’m glad I’m here.[/quote]
I agree that there are some affordable options. In my opinion, if you can’t swing a house financially in San Diego today, odds are that you probably never will (barring salary increase, career change graduating, etc) …
(For those who can afford, but are holding off for various reasons, willingness and readiness are separate issues. There may be plenty of other valid reasons to hold off. I am strictly talking ability here).According to Rich’s figures, affordability is at or near a 35-year high. Monthly payments, relative to rent or relative to income are as low as have been measured for at least 33 years.
Here is a link to his figures, with the one’s I am referring to below for convenience…
[img_assist|nid=14211|title=SD payment-to-rent ratio|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=432|height=334]
[img_assist|nid=14212|title=SD payment-to-income ratio|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=436|height=335]
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