[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

There are plenty of sales just not the kind we need to prove the drop.

Both sets of examples look like data mining to me by both parties.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

I’m not a broker, but perhaps rates dropping precipitously over the last couple months has spurred some refinance activity.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

jg – Absolutely no offense taken. I was trying to figure out whether you were referring to my factual statements citing the numbers and explanations published by the ISM (I wouldn’t consider that an example of puffery) or my previous tongue-in-cheek jest of quoting everyone so that we could feel superior (now that should be considered a puff piece).

I didn’t think I was overaccentuating the positive. Things are obviously slowing down. I like to interject facts now and then to provide some balance. I like to read the reports rather than regurgitate someone else’s take on them. The ISM report was consistent with the 2.2% revised GDP of last quarter. It was not a sign of further slowing beyond that … yet. Some people took the ISM number as indicating we are already over the cliff. I’m simply claiming that we are at the same edge of the cliff we thought we were when the GDP was revised to be ~2.2%.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

What were they selling ?

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

jg –

To what puffery are you referring ?

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

ISM reading implies 2.4% GDP growth

qcomer –
The current ISM reading of the Purchasing Managers Index is 49.5 (yes manufacturing is contracting slightly since less than 50).

However, the ISM states that this number is consistent with GDP growth of 2.4%, based on past relationships.

Here’s a quote : “In addition, if the PMI for November (49.5 percent) is annualized, it corresponds to a 2.4 percent increase in real GDP annually.”

So, the news is the same as the GDP being in the 2-2.5% range, which we already knew. This simply confirms that the economy is slowing at the same pace according to this report as the GDP report previously suggested. (Yawn)

Here’s the report for more details : < a href="http://www.ism.ws/about/mediaroom/newsreleasedetail.cfm?ItemNumber=15697&navItemNumber=12942" > ISM Report

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Lulu – “Most people renting their homes understandably want a 1 year commitment though. ”

Suppose you leave your rental 6 months early. That’ll cost you about $12,000 MAX. And that’s only if the landlord does not fill the unit with another tenant. If you break a lease you are liable only until the landlord fills the unit with a new tenant. As a landlord, I think that most will gladly get you in their rental now (slow time of year) adn allow you to break the lease in the early summer (peak season for filling rentals,) no problem. The wost case penalty for breaking the lease is only about 2% of the price range you are looking at.

Another option is to offer a hundred bucks or so extra per month for a month-to-month lease. Even if the rentals are advertised with minimum 1-year leases, you can offer 6-months and more money or month-to-month. Some landlords will go for it. Everything is negotiable. Also, FB’s who have pulled their home off the market and panning to re-list in the spring will gladly give you a month-to-month lease.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

powayseller –

The problem is that you assume that all ARMS were put in place in the same category: 100% LTV, buyer stretched to 40% of their income for PITI, etc. This is simply not the case, and probably what drives some of us batty.

Though there are many loans in these high-risk categories, the 25% of loan resets next year and the xx billion dollars at stake also includes some people who put 20% or more down for loans with PITI at less than 20% of their incomes.
I pointed to a specific above. Others have pointed to specific examples of FBs who are in the category you assume. No way a majority of ALL ARMs resetting in 2007 go into default.

By the way, I won’t take any side bets on this one. I placed my bet in 2002 and will stick with it.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

powayseller – You said : “So how do you propose the 2002 – 2005 batch of borrowers can refinance? ”

I purchased a house in late 2002. The loan balance is 1.1x my annual income and about 50% LTV. I’m pretty sure I could refinance.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

g_d_p –

Sounds like your rent is now comparable to other places in your area. So, I would say you were getting a 25% discount previously, rather than a 25% increase. It’s only semantics, but hey maybe it’ll make you feel better about it.

(Doesn’t seem to take the sting off the increase when you write the check, though does it ?)

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

The SUN Tax.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

“if you exclude the effect of higher inventory, the GDP number would come out to be closer to 2% which was closer to the consensus estimate by bloomberg. ” – qcomer

“That’s what investing is all about after all: finding assymetric bets, where your downside is limited and your upside is several multiples of the downside, based on reasonable probabilities.” – davelj

“Roubini quoted me on his blog this week. So I’m not as dumb as you’d like to think. And I know you’re pretty smart too. ” – PS

“Oh, puhleeze, ps.” – jg

Now we’ve all been quoted.
Have a superior Friday.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Housing market analogies in baseball. Usually it’s the other way around – e.g. “We’re in the third inning of a nine inning game, prices are going to go down further”
Crazy.

By the way – Towers’ moves this offseason have been poor IMO. Getting rid of Ben Johnson was bad enough, but trading away Josh Barfield ? That’s criminal. Another future all-star gone a la Jason Bay.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

BTW, another way of hedging against dollar maybe to invest in major exporters from the US. But I couldn’t find any stocks of big exporters that haven’t already moved in last 3 months. Any recommendations here?

qcomer, here’s my take … if you think the dollar will fall further, buy the majors exporters that have already moved. If you are looking for companies that haven’t responded to the most recent drops in the dollar, why do you think they might fall when the dollar drops further ?
My advice, take the ones that have already responded to the current decline of the dollar. Sure you missed the recent move, but if you expect it to move further go with the trend. If a major exporter hasn;t responded to the dollar drop, it’s probably because the company is weak for other reasons.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

g_d_p –

25% that’s crazy, must be more to the story …

Was your rent previously unusually low ?
Was there a new owner ?
Did you acquire a pet ?
Did you take up smoking ?
Did you add people to the lease ?
How does your new rent compare to other options in the market ?

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