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(former)FormerSanDiegan
Participant“Inflation from 01 is nearly 0. ”
No way. I have to call BS on this one.
Saying that inflation is negative with oil, utilities, and construction materials taken into account is not only incorrect, it is equivalent to saying that your girlfriend is in great physical shape … except for those extra 40 pounds.Virtually every commodity in the world is more expensive now than in 2001: corn, meat, metals, …
Wages are up significantly since 2001, affecting the cost of services which are a huge part of our economy.
OK, VCRs are cheaper, but who wants one ?
Participantforsale_2007 –
I don;t have any real insight into REITS other than the obvious. A few years ago I bought when they were paying dividends of over 8% (when Money Markets were paying about 2-3 %). Now the REITs have had a pretty good run and the dividends are now not much above MMs or CD’s. Less room for error. A slow-down in the economy would eventually work itself into the holdings of REITS. I have sold some REITS over the last year, but I always plan to hold some in my portfolio to maintain diversity.
ParticipantThanks for the info. Actually, I’m trying to stay away from the entire stock market with this set of funds. The only reason is because as is 80% of all my total assets are already in the stock market in one shape or form (stocks, indexes, mutual) in both domestic and international. And i really don’t this next chunk to be also.
That clears up the question I had. You are looking for what to do with an amount that is roughly 20% of your portfolio, not the whole ball of wax.
Here’s a few non-stock things I’ve added in the past year or two to zig when the market zags. These aren’t conservative ways to make 10-12%, but they definitely march to their own beat relative to stocks.
UDN – ETF that bets on a declining dollar
FXY – ETF that tracks movement of the Yen.
DBC – ETF that tracks commodities index
RQI – closed end real estate fund (probably near the end of the cycle on this, but don’t confuse residential RE mess with commercial RE. Commercial RE has remained strong much longer is lagging residential)ParticipantThis is pretty simple, IRS pub 527 (http://www.irs.gov/publications/p527/ar02.html#d0e2480) provides a table for determining what items in your rental may be depreciated and over what period (see table below). Simply estimate the actual value of these items when you place the rental in service instead of paying someone several hundred to a thousand bucks for a Chattel appraisal.
It’s not rocket science.
A large landlord might have someone appraise these items, but my guess is that most simply evaluate a few types of their units and count how many A/C units dishwashers, etc they have in their buildings and do some multiplication. These items are also constantly being replaced. Once you replace (as many large landlords do constantly) the basis is what you paid, so no appraisal is needed in those cases.
IMO the market for selling these appraisals is to large property owners (who likely have the skills and manpower to do their own appraisal) and newbie landlords who don’t yet know the rules.
[img_assist|nid=3195|title=IRS pub 527- table 3. Rental property depreciation|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=268|height=500]
Participant“a conservative 10-12% annual return”
This is an oxymoron at a time when CD’s and govt bonds yield in the 5% range.
You will have to assume some risk to get that kind of return. I don’t think the example of your wine futures and conservative fall into the same category either.
If you want to be conservative, shoot for about 8% return
My suggestion: 1/3 cash (e.g. CD or Money Market), 1/3 US Stocks, the remaining third equally divided (~11% each) between 1. foreign stocks/currencies, 2. gold or oil, and 3.other commodities.If you don’t want to be conservative or you are simply looking for suggestions for that last 1/3 of your portfolio, I would consider Chris’ recommendation a reasonable one.
Maybe it’s just that I am old-fashioned (though not that old) and wouldn’t put my entire nest egg into a single wine basket.
You can learn about what Chris does by going to : http://iamafuturestrader.blogspot.com/
ParticipantSD Realtor -I agree, all issues with respect to contingencies, financing, disclosures, etc are strongly tilted towards the seller. Why subject yourself to this as a buyer, when in the current and foreseeable market these items are strongly in your favor. It would have to end up being a tremendous bargain to jump in now. I doubt the reserve prices in this auction will be low enough to make it worth attending this time. We’ll see. It bears watching, though. Maybe I’ll go to one of these in 2008.
ParticipantThe numbers are starting bids, so don’t put too much weight on them. They are meant to stir interest. The sellers have an unpublished reserve price.
Here is a quote from the web site :
Reserve Price. All Properties have a Reserve Price, meaning the Seller of each Property has established an unpublished, minimum selling price. The starting bid is not the Reserve Price. In order to become the Winning Bidder for a Property, a Bidder must meet or exceed the Reserve Price and have the highest bid. The Auctioneer may open bidding on any Property by placing a bid on behalf of the Seller. The Auctioneer may further bid on behalf of the Seller, up to the amount of the Reserve Price, by placing successive or consecutive bids for a Property, or by placing bids in response to other bidders. If no bidders meet the Reserve Price, the Seller is under no obligation to sell the Property. The Seller may withdraw a Property at any time prior to the announcement of the completion of the sale by the Auctioneer. Auctioneer is not acting as an agent for any Bidder in any capacity, and is acting exclusively as the Seller’s agent.
So a potential buyer gets to bid against other buyers AND maybe even the auctioneer himself until it reaches the unknown reserve price.
Also, the buyer gets to pay a 5% premium above the auction price (this sounds like a real estate commission to me).
How much below market will these homes sell for at this auction ? My guess … not much if at all. I’m also guessing that the majority go unsold.ParticipantCall your congress-person and ask for them to pass a bill to relieve your problem.
Participantwhen I left the house at noon that day, the new mailbox was not firmly fastened, as if the landlord (or whoever intalled it) didn’t quite finish and had to leave in a hurry. However, when I came back home that night, the mailbox was firmly fastened and all the screws looked tight.
Sounds like a second trip to Home Depot to get the rest of the things to finish the job. Used to happen to me all the time, but it was usually three trips per job.
Participant“This isnt rocket science ”
True. But if it were, it would be too easy. At least in rocket science, psychology does not play a major role.
ParticipantIn this instance it would be difficult to prove that the landlord actually entered the property. But I would definitely follow the advice of sending a certified letter noting that he was on your property without the proper notice.
It is possible (but maybe not likely) that he pulled in the driveway without entering your house and the same day that you forgot to lock your door*.
Don’t know if using your driveway is an offense.
Regardless, protect your rights. Take some action. Document the incident and notify the landlord and protect yourself. I would consider requesting a chain lock or dead-bolt installed on each door so that you can at least lock your home while you are in it in case the landlord is a creep.
* Yes, it could happen. Twice in the last three years I left the house and came back to a wide open front door. Not just un-locked, but wide open. In both cases, I had left something in the house that I planned to go back and grab after loading kids in the car, but forgot to go back. Forgetting to lock a door is a possibility. On the same day the landlord mysteriously is seen leaving the driveway ? Maybe not.
Also, for reference in 2008 or 2009 when it’s time to consider buying …. how much is it worth to not have a landlord when computing rent vs own ?
Participantjg –
IMO the actual number for consumer spending is not as important as the fact that consumer spending exceeded expectations by 75% and that Feb numbers were revised to the positive side instead of a decline.Now, as for your gold follies… short-term timing is tough. You are brave to try. The problem is that you may be generally correct in gauging the economy’s direction, but predicting the net outcome of all the players in the markets and their responses over the short-term is dicey.
ParticipantI’m still betting around 2% for Q1 GDP. It has been hovering there for the last two quarters, and I’m betting on the continued trend to stay above 1%. I’ll eventually be wrong, but probably not this quarter (maybe by 3Q 2007).
BTW, news just out on March spending … up 0.7% (forecast to be 0.4%) and Feb consumer spending was revised up to 0.5% (originally reported as a 0.1% decline).
http://money.cnn.com/2007/04/16/news/economy/retailsales/index.htm?postversion=2007041609Participant“I think that when the right time to buy does come, it will be obvious — like it was in 1996”
Was it obvious in 1996 ? I don’t think so.
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