Forum Replies Created
-
AuthorPosts
-
(former)FormerSanDiegan
ParticipantDon’t worry jg, your long-awaited recession/ zero growth period is but a few months away from being realized.
ParticipantMr Angel – With all due respect, your post sounds a bit disgruntled and lacking in accurate facts.
Please bring some sort of logic and/or data to the table and people will engage.
Why not demonstrate your point with some examples and data. A good start would be to bring some examples of SD SFRs recently sold or on the market for which the cost to own is within 10% of the cost to rent.
Participant
Areas like clairmont, south San Diego and way out east may see a decline but those are areas that you wouldn’t have bought into 10 years ago …Actually Clairemont was a great place to buy into 10 years ago.
If you all were so in tune with the markets then wouldn’t you all be millionaires today with you abilities to predict market trends?
If you bought a couple houses in Clairemont for 150-160K 10 years ago, guess what, you pretty darn close to a $ Mil today.
IGNORANCE OF THE PAST DEMONSTRATES A LACK THE COGNITIVE ABILITIES NECESSARY TO CONTEMPLATE POTENTIAL FUTURE OUTCOMES.
May 10, 2007 at 2:36 PM in reply to: So if the U.S. dollar is 10-15% lower than 2005, than does it mean…. #52370ParticipantSHILOH – Not sure which 50% of households are you talking about. I think you may want to know what is the mean income of the top 50% of households. Not sure where to find that, but the census bureau has some useful breakdowns of income levels.
For example about 24% of households in San Diego County had incomes above 100,000 *
According to census bureau, in 2005 here are the number of housholds at each income level in SD County (2005 dollars):
Total households….1,040,538
Less than $10,000…….60,252
$10,000 to $14,999……47,770
$15,000 to $24,999…..103,145
$25,000 to $34,999…..102,774
$35,000 to $49,999…..148,111
$50,000 to $74,999…..196,663
$75,000 to $99,999…..135,613
$100,000 to $149,999…148,257
$150,000 to $199,999….50,316
$200,000 or more……..47,637Median household income (dollars): 56,335
Mean household income (dollars): 75,060* source: http://factfinder.census.gov/home/saff/main.html?_lang=en
ParticipantJG – You and davelj are both right.
REAL rents declined by 15% from 1989 to 1996
BUT inflation was a cumulative 27.5%* over this period.
So, nominal rents increased by ~12.5%
* per the inflation calculator
http://inflationdata.com/Inflation/Inflation_Rate/InflationCalculator.asp#resultsParticipantSHILOH – Thanks.
I also found a partial history of these data, but only through 2005.
An observation.
After a couple decades of bouncing around between +/- 2% of 13.00, the inflation adjusted hourly wages jumped about 11 % from 1995 until 2005.
Did rents keep up with wages (inflation + 10%) during this period ?
Is this jump structural or caused by under-counting inflation ?[img_assist|nid=3390|title=Inflation Adjusted Wages|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=315]
ParticipantRents can’t go up if wages aren’t rising. Wages have been stagnant (or even falling) for the past few years. It’s gotten to the point that government jobs have higher pay than private sector jobs, at least in some fields.
Can you point us to the data that show flat or falling wages for the past few years ?
Thank you.
ParticipantWhen I moved a couple of years ago the Blue Collar grill was still there. It’s just east of Morena Blvd in Bay Ho. A landmark I always saw (on the way to Costco) but never entered.
Also, with all the positive remarks,I wanted to correct a few things …
Bay Park is noisy, polluted. You hear what sounds like gun shots every night in the summer at 9:50pm. Buses drive through all the time making a bunch of noise. It’s a whole mile or two to the trolley for trips to Q.. ahem Jack Murphy or Petco Park. There’s way to many tourists wandering up the hill when they make a wrong turn looking for the MBP visitor center. The people are really mean. Those pesky breezes make you force you to break your sweatshirt out on some summer evenings. Overall it sucks. Move along, nothing to see there.(Now, where is that 3/2 2000 s.f. house for 600K with the unobstructable view ?)
ParticipantI used to live near the top of Bay Park, near corner of Milton and Burgener. The freeway noise is non-existent during the day. At night, after the fireworks, if the wind is calm you can hear the freeway. Sounds like a distant river or white noise. TOwards the bottom of the hill (I rented a place near Chicago and Clairemont Drive) it’s very much more noticeable all day, regardless. But still primarily white noise.
Jet noise is zero. I lived in Point Loma for about a year and had to pause telephone conversations because of the jets. In the main part of Bay Park (not Overlook Heights, which faces more south towards the airport) the jet noise is about zero.
… It’s starting to sound like this thread is sponsored by the Bay Park Chamber of Commerce.
ParticipantI have to admit that I too feel a certain “glee” at watching the bubble burst, mostly because I’ve been calling it since 2001 and I hate to be wrong.
Hate to say this, but you were already wrong. The RE bubble about doubled from 2001 levels and began bursting in 2005.
No offense, I sold one of my rental properties in 2001 to avoid being overextended in real estate myself. I was wrong as well (but hedged my bets by holding onto another property).
ParticipantRegarding schools around BP … I found Bay Park elementary to be fairly good. The problem is the middle schools and High school (Clairemont High). This is typical of a lot of places in CA, though, I suppose.
ParticipantIf your analysis shows that it would sell for 1.4 M in today’s market and you are getting it for 1.1. M, isn’t this a no-brainer ? It would be for me.
ParticipantThat’s funny. I lived in Bay Park for 5 years, and many long-time residents said “where’s that?” when I told them where I lived. I thought I had found a hidden gem.
(By the way, lniles, the linked property is really Old Town rather than Bay Park, but Juan street is nice, particularly as you increase the altitude.)
Participantradelow – I think the desirable areas of Point Loma will be sticky for a while. Your Bay Park neighborhood is finally seeing some lower selling prices recently (probably linked more with Clairemont which has a decent amount of inventory, and more affected first). I used to live in BP and CLMT and want to try to keep a pulse on the rents and prices, with the hope of re-entering the market there at some point. (I sold in 2005).
How much are you paying for rent there these days (if you don;t mind) ? Or what are the ranges for typical props (e.g. 3/2 1500 sf no view, or 2000 s.f. with Bay views).
Any info is appreciated.
Thanks,
FSD -
AuthorPosts
