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(former)FormerSanDiegan
Participantjg – I agree with your point that a single sale does not affect the median much. But, I have a problem with citing a 34% decline from monthly data. It is a bit of exaggeration because the monthly figures are so noisy.
Your original point of a decline happening is true in these data, but taking a one-month peak is either naive or disingenuous. The press does this all the time and we rail on them for it.
Monthly zip code reports are very noisy. In this case the monthly fluctuations have been on the order of 200-500K for this zip code for the past 18 months. With this much noise, the confidence in a 300K drop is small.
For example from October 2005 to May 2006 the median La Jolla Price INCREASED by 59 %. 59 % WOW !
Could you imagine the response on this board to a headline about a year ago that said La Jolla prices are up 59% in 7 months, a huge Spring rally for La Jolla.If we average over longer time frames, the noise of the estimate is reduced. If you average the last few months and compare it to say 2005-2006, it appears that prices have dropped from about 1.8-1.9 M to about 1.5 M, about a 15-20% drop.
20% is a significant drop. Why exaggerate ?
ParticipantSDA – Are you working on the side as a graphic artist for powayseller ?
ParticipantSDA – Are you working on the side as a graphic artist for powayseller ?
ParticipantRemember that once you do this if you are successful and the seller concedes, then you are the homeowner and someday in the future you will likely sell.
One word of advice: KARMA.
ParticipantRemember that once you do this if you are successful and the seller concedes, then you are the homeowner and someday in the future you will likely sell.
One word of advice: KARMA.
ParticipantHere’s a chart with inflation-adjusted wages
Late 70’s early 80’s (high-inflation period) saw a loss in wages with respect to inflation, but not horrible. From 1978 to 1981 wages declined by about 4% relative to inflation.
So, I suppose that wages didn’t fall too far behind.
The real problem then was the other big IF (keeping your job) when there was double-digit unemployment.[img_assist|nid=3390|title=Inflation Adjusted Wages|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=315]
ParticipantHere’s a chart with inflation-adjusted wages
Late 70’s early 80’s (high-inflation period) saw a loss in wages with respect to inflation, but not horrible. From 1978 to 1981 wages declined by about 4% relative to inflation.
So, I suppose that wages didn’t fall too far behind.
The real problem then was the other big IF (keeping your job) when there was double-digit unemployment.[img_assist|nid=3390|title=Inflation Adjusted Wages|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=315]
ParticipantDo you seriously believe that incomes will even come close to keeping up with inflation?
Aha ! That’s one of the big IFs in his question.
I don’t incomes kept up in the 70’s.
For the past decade, incomes have actually exceeded official inflation statistics. In periods of high inflation they tend to fall behind.ParticipantDo you seriously believe that incomes will even come close to keeping up with inflation?
Aha ! That’s one of the big IFs in his question.
I don’t incomes kept up in the 70’s.
For the past decade, incomes have actually exceeded official inflation statistics. In periods of high inflation they tend to fall behind.ParticipantIf you do not buy a house and you have all your assets in stocks, bonds or cash aren’t you vulnerable in case inflation comes back like the 1970s ?
Yes.
If someone buys a home and manages to retain a job with income adjusted for inflation during your inflationary spiral wouldn’t the real amount of the home loan decline ?
Yes.
Straight enough ?
ParticipantIf you do not buy a house and you have all your assets in stocks, bonds or cash aren’t you vulnerable in case inflation comes back like the 1970s ?
Yes.
If someone buys a home and manages to retain a job with income adjusted for inflation during your inflationary spiral wouldn’t the real amount of the home loan decline ?
Yes.
Straight enough ?
ParticipantIt looks to me like you found their tax record for personal property (a boat) that they registered in May 2006, not for the house.
ParticipantIt looks to me like you found their tax record for personal property (a boat) that they registered in May 2006, not for the house.
ParticipantI guess they didn’t figure out that they could also lose 100K without batting an eye.
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