Forum Replies Created
-
AuthorPosts
-
(former)FormerSanDiegan
ParticipantYou say prices ‘hit bottom’ in December ’06. I say ‘local minima in noisy data.’
Exactly my point. Now you get it. My claim of 9% increase was bogus because the data are noisy. I was trying to point out the futility of ignoring noise.
Why do you say ‘samples’? It’s the universe of home sales for the month. There is no sampling involved whatsoever.
Glad you asked. The samples are the particular homes that sold that month, whether they are representative of the entire zip code or not matters. When you compare to those houses sold in the same zip code from another month you are comparing to an entirely different sample set.
Prices are dropping in La Jolla. Get used to it.
Absolutely. I agree 100%ParticipantYou say prices ‘hit bottom’ in December ’06. I say ‘local minima in noisy data.’
Exactly my point. Now you get it. My claim of 9% increase was bogus because the data are noisy. I was trying to point out the futility of ignoring noise.
Why do you say ‘samples’? It’s the universe of home sales for the month. There is no sampling involved whatsoever.
Glad you asked. The samples are the particular homes that sold that month, whether they are representative of the entire zip code or not matters. When you compare to those houses sold in the same zip code from another month you are comparing to an entirely different sample set.
Prices are dropping in La Jolla. Get used to it.
Absolutely. I agree 100%ParticipantI pick the peak and compare it to the most recent monthly median.
You play games. Neat, FSD.No games, just facts.
The following is based on year-over year zip code comparisons for the most recent month available.
92117 – Clairemont is down 9.4 % year over year
92110 – Bay Park/Morena/Old Town is Up 26%If I take the approach of ignoring noise, then I would have to come to the conclusion that these adjacent neighborhoods are diverging in price by about 35% …
OR I could interpret it as More noise the Data Quick monthly median data.
You decide.
ParticipantI pick the peak and compare it to the most recent monthly median.
You play games. Neat, FSD.No games, just facts.
The following is based on year-over year zip code comparisons for the most recent month available.
92117 – Clairemont is down 9.4 % year over year
92110 – Bay Park/Morena/Old Town is Up 26%If I take the approach of ignoring noise, then I would have to come to the conclusion that these adjacent neighborhoods are diverging in price by about 35% …
OR I could interpret it as More noise the Data Quick monthly median data.
You decide.
ParticipantMonthly median sales in a particular zip are the result of the particular mix of sales in a zip code with 25 or so samples. This small sample produces noisy estimates.
Any statistic with 25 samples is going to be noisy. I thought you were a statistics guy. If you have trouble with the concept of noise in time-series data, then go ahead and continue to believe that La Jolla’s prices have dropped by 34%. I don’t care.
But if you believe that, then you have to believe that prices have recovered 9% from the bottom in Dec 2006.
ParticipantMonthly median sales in a particular zip are the result of the particular mix of sales in a zip code with 25 or so samples. This small sample produces noisy estimates.
Any statistic with 25 samples is going to be noisy. I thought you were a statistics guy. If you have trouble with the concept of noise in time-series data, then go ahead and continue to believe that La Jolla’s prices have dropped by 34%. I don’t care.
But if you believe that, then you have to believe that prices have recovered 9% from the bottom in Dec 2006.
ParticipantHere is another absolutely true example that is equally (un)enlightening.
First, some ground rules:
1. I chose to review data based on the government fiscal year calendar, which starts in October, so as to not to cherry-pick data and bias my results2. I chose to look at data over long periods, 4 years in this example, so that short-term rapid swings have minimal impact on my results.
I found that La Jolla Prices dropped by 7% from Oct 99 to Oct 03, while San Diego prices increased by 93% in the same period !
Statistics from October 1999 to October 2003 per DataQuick (via SD-UT) :
Median SFR resale in La Jolla
10/99 : 1.145 Million
10/03 : 1.060 Million
A drop of 7%Median SFR resale in San Diego
10/99 : 214.5 K
10/03 : 415 K
An increase of 93%So, over a period of 4 years La Jolla median price stagnated and even fell a little bit while the rest of San Diego almost doubled !
While the numbers are incontrovertible fact, the conclusion is false because I ignored the variability in the statistics.
ParticipantHere is another absolutely true example that is equally (un)enlightening.
First, some ground rules:
1. I chose to review data based on the government fiscal year calendar, which starts in October, so as to not to cherry-pick data and bias my results2. I chose to look at data over long periods, 4 years in this example, so that short-term rapid swings have minimal impact on my results.
I found that La Jolla Prices dropped by 7% from Oct 99 to Oct 03, while San Diego prices increased by 93% in the same period !
Statistics from October 1999 to October 2003 per DataQuick (via SD-UT) :
Median SFR resale in La Jolla
10/99 : 1.145 Million
10/03 : 1.060 Million
A drop of 7%Median SFR resale in San Diego
10/99 : 214.5 K
10/03 : 415 K
An increase of 93%So, over a period of 4 years La Jolla median price stagnated and even fell a little bit while the rest of San Diego almost doubled !
While the numbers are incontrovertible fact, the conclusion is false because I ignored the variability in the statistics.
Participantjg – I know, I know, I should lighten up …
BUT La Jolla prices are up 9.5% since the end of 2006 (December). It’s right there in your chart. The soft landing is at hand. (Tongue firmly planted in cheek).
Participantjg – I know, I know, I should lighten up …
BUT La Jolla prices are up 9.5% since the end of 2006 (December). It’s right there in your chart. The soft landing is at hand. (Tongue firmly planted in cheek).
ParticipantSpeaking of lawyers, have you heard this one …
Q: What do you call a lawyer going over a cliff in a golf cart?
Ans: A good start
ParticipantSpeaking of lawyers, have you heard this one …
Q: What do you call a lawyer going over a cliff in a golf cart?
Ans: A good start
ParticipantPizza Face.
ParticipantPizza Face.
-
AuthorPosts
