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(former)FormerSanDiegan
ParticipantWho knows, could be 5 years could 15 years. That is the problem with RE right now. The risk of it being illiquid for long time is too high given the current macro-econ picture.
I agree it could be a very long time. At 12 months supply or more methinks RE is already illiquid. My guess is that those considering selling right now in San Diego will take up to a year to sell their property and will be selling about 15% below what they think today’s market value is.
I would also venture to guess that those closing escrow one year from now will be within 10% of the market bottom in terms of price.
Just my opinion.ParticipantThe 10% loss is pretty consistent with the Case-Shiller index from a few months ago. My guess is that by the time he gets it sold, he’d be looking at another 25K or more lopped off what he thinks the price is currently.
ParticipantThe 10% loss is pretty consistent with the Case-Shiller index from a few months ago. My guess is that by the time he gets it sold, he’d be looking at another 25K or more lopped off what he thinks the price is currently.
ParticipantThe 10% loss is pretty consistent with the Case-Shiller index from a few months ago. My guess is that by the time he gets it sold, he’d be looking at another 25K or more lopped off what he thinks the price is currently.
ParticipantI am hoping that somewhere over the next 3-5 years there will be a slight upturn to sell, versus just down down down. This is too short a time frame in my opinion. If this is your plan I would put it on the market at the end of January. (I would normally suggest to do so right now, but I think your chances to sell between now and the end of January are about zero).
ParticipantI am hoping that somewhere over the next 3-5 years there will be a slight upturn to sell, versus just down down down. This is too short a time frame in my opinion. If this is your plan I would put it on the market at the end of January. (I would normally suggest to do so right now, but I think your chances to sell between now and the end of January are about zero).
ParticipantI am hoping that somewhere over the next 3-5 years there will be a slight upturn to sell, versus just down down down. This is too short a time frame in my opinion. If this is your plan I would put it on the market at the end of January. (I would normally suggest to do so right now, but I think your chances to sell between now and the end of January are about zero).
Participantassuming that the market will ever get back to 2005 levels is a fools’ bet
Ever ?
If prices revert to 1997 levels (previous bottom), plus inflation when would we get to 2005 prices ?
Participantassuming that the market will ever get back to 2005 levels is a fools’ bet
Ever ?
If prices revert to 1997 levels (previous bottom), plus inflation when would we get to 2005 prices ?
Participantassuming that the market will ever get back to 2005 levels is a fools’ bet
Ever ?
If prices revert to 1997 levels (previous bottom), plus inflation when would we get to 2005 prices ?
ParticipantI sold a 1BR condo in the early 90’s for 29K.
OOOps. So, we should take your advice ?
I would pay 125-150K for a unit that rents for $1000/ month.
Unless we had 10% inflation the last 16 years I don’t think 29K plus inflation from the early 1990’s gets you there.ParticipantI sold a 1BR condo in the early 90’s for 29K.
OOOps. So, we should take your advice ?
I would pay 125-150K for a unit that rents for $1000/ month.
Unless we had 10% inflation the last 16 years I don’t think 29K plus inflation from the early 1990’s gets you there.ParticipantI sold a 1BR condo in the early 90’s for 29K.
OOOps. So, we should take your advice ?
I would pay 125-150K for a unit that rents for $1000/ month.
Unless we had 10% inflation the last 16 years I don’t think 29K plus inflation from the early 1990’s gets you there.Participant2008 – After 5 years your loss on monthly carrying costs is about 42K. But you still have the 70K loss as well as any additional loss/gain in value over the next 5 years. (I’m guessing another 15% loss or about another 30K).
So, you can either take a guaranteed 70K hit now, or gamble and take a 70K +/- any additional depreciation, plus another 42K loss (plus about 28 K reduction in taxes) over 5 years.
I think this is a bad 5-year bet. If you are likely to sell in 5 years, then you ought to sell now. If you plan to hold for 10 years or more, however, it would probably work out OK.
Also, if you have sufficient assets (e.g. 70K) to sell now and pay the loss, then you probably could also handle the risk of carrying this as a rental.
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