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(former)FormerSanDiegan
ParticipantThe date for my SSN came and went. Since we have direct deposit of refunds and electronic filing we would have received a direct deposit. But, alas, we are not eligible. To those who received or will receive a check, you are welcome …
But don’t let it happen again.
ParticipantThe coming Alt A implosion is one of the centerpieces for my macro arguments about not buying a house now.
Certainly some vintages of Alt-A ARMs are performing very poorly. (see here: http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/04/closer-look-at-arms-reset-problem.html)
I think the option ARMs are a much bigger problem than ALT-a in general.
Consider the reset chart shown below. The bulk of the ALT-A loans start resetting in 2010-2011. SInce this chart was put together in 2007, the bulk of these are likely 5/1 ARMs originated in 2005-2006.
Q. What was the typical rate for 5/1 ARMs originated in 2005-2006 ?
A. between 5.5 – 6%
Q. If these loans were to reset today, what rate would they reset to ?
A. about 5.5 %
I have to conclude that problems in the “second wave” of mortgage resets will more likely be due to Option Arms than Alt-a resets.
[img_assist|nid=7668|title=Reset Chart|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=428]
ParticipantThe coming Alt A implosion is one of the centerpieces for my macro arguments about not buying a house now.
Certainly some vintages of Alt-A ARMs are performing very poorly. (see here: http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/04/closer-look-at-arms-reset-problem.html)
I think the option ARMs are a much bigger problem than ALT-a in general.
Consider the reset chart shown below. The bulk of the ALT-A loans start resetting in 2010-2011. SInce this chart was put together in 2007, the bulk of these are likely 5/1 ARMs originated in 2005-2006.
Q. What was the typical rate for 5/1 ARMs originated in 2005-2006 ?
A. between 5.5 – 6%
Q. If these loans were to reset today, what rate would they reset to ?
A. about 5.5 %
I have to conclude that problems in the “second wave” of mortgage resets will more likely be due to Option Arms than Alt-a resets.
[img_assist|nid=7668|title=Reset Chart|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=428]
ParticipantThe coming Alt A implosion is one of the centerpieces for my macro arguments about not buying a house now.
Certainly some vintages of Alt-A ARMs are performing very poorly. (see here: http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/04/closer-look-at-arms-reset-problem.html)
I think the option ARMs are a much bigger problem than ALT-a in general.
Consider the reset chart shown below. The bulk of the ALT-A loans start resetting in 2010-2011. SInce this chart was put together in 2007, the bulk of these are likely 5/1 ARMs originated in 2005-2006.
Q. What was the typical rate for 5/1 ARMs originated in 2005-2006 ?
A. between 5.5 – 6%
Q. If these loans were to reset today, what rate would they reset to ?
A. about 5.5 %
I have to conclude that problems in the “second wave” of mortgage resets will more likely be due to Option Arms than Alt-a resets.
[img_assist|nid=7668|title=Reset Chart|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=428]
ParticipantThe coming Alt A implosion is one of the centerpieces for my macro arguments about not buying a house now.
Certainly some vintages of Alt-A ARMs are performing very poorly. (see here: http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/04/closer-look-at-arms-reset-problem.html)
I think the option ARMs are a much bigger problem than ALT-a in general.
Consider the reset chart shown below. The bulk of the ALT-A loans start resetting in 2010-2011. SInce this chart was put together in 2007, the bulk of these are likely 5/1 ARMs originated in 2005-2006.
Q. What was the typical rate for 5/1 ARMs originated in 2005-2006 ?
A. between 5.5 – 6%
Q. If these loans were to reset today, what rate would they reset to ?
A. about 5.5 %
I have to conclude that problems in the “second wave” of mortgage resets will more likely be due to Option Arms than Alt-a resets.
[img_assist|nid=7668|title=Reset Chart|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=428]
ParticipantThe coming Alt A implosion is one of the centerpieces for my macro arguments about not buying a house now.
Certainly some vintages of Alt-A ARMs are performing very poorly. (see here: http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/04/closer-look-at-arms-reset-problem.html)
I think the option ARMs are a much bigger problem than ALT-a in general.
Consider the reset chart shown below. The bulk of the ALT-A loans start resetting in 2010-2011. SInce this chart was put together in 2007, the bulk of these are likely 5/1 ARMs originated in 2005-2006.
Q. What was the typical rate for 5/1 ARMs originated in 2005-2006 ?
A. between 5.5 – 6%
Q. If these loans were to reset today, what rate would they reset to ?
A. about 5.5 %
I have to conclude that problems in the “second wave” of mortgage resets will more likely be due to Option Arms than Alt-a resets.
[img_assist|nid=7668|title=Reset Chart|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=428]
ParticipantFully furnished 3 bedroom condo located in the heart of carmel valley for lease.
ParticipantFully furnished 3 bedroom condo located in the heart of carmel valley for lease.
ParticipantFully furnished 3 bedroom condo located in the heart of carmel valley for lease.
ParticipantFully furnished 3 bedroom condo located in the heart of carmel valley for lease.
ParticipantFully furnished 3 bedroom condo located in the heart of carmel valley for lease.
May 22, 2008 at 3:05 PM in reply to: Now tell me the Fed is not causing the current commodity crisis. #209991ParticipantAll I see is two uncorrelated graphs that happen to be upward trending at the same time.
Funny, this reminded me of the relationship between the number of pirates and global temperatures.
[img_assist|nid=7654|title=Pirates are cool|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=326]
May 22, 2008 at 3:05 PM in reply to: Now tell me the Fed is not causing the current commodity crisis. #210059ParticipantAll I see is two uncorrelated graphs that happen to be upward trending at the same time.
Funny, this reminded me of the relationship between the number of pirates and global temperatures.
[img_assist|nid=7654|title=Pirates are cool|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=326]
May 22, 2008 at 3:05 PM in reply to: Now tell me the Fed is not causing the current commodity crisis. #210089ParticipantAll I see is two uncorrelated graphs that happen to be upward trending at the same time.
Funny, this reminded me of the relationship between the number of pirates and global temperatures.
[img_assist|nid=7654|title=Pirates are cool|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=326]
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