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May 31, 2008 at 10:23 AM in reply to: 4.25 Yrs. SoCal RE Inventory – Mr. Mortgage’s New Video on SoCal #214772May 31, 2008 at 10:23 AM in reply to: 4.25 Yrs. SoCal RE Inventory – Mr. Mortgage’s New Video on SoCal #214804
(former)FormerSanDiegan
ParticipantThis Mortgage guy is underestimating the potential supply.
Since real estate always goes down, who wants to own? Therefore I would include all homes in San Diego as potential inventory. By that metric we have about 34.5 years of inventory.
/tongue-in-cheek
There’s almost always got to be motivation behind manipulation of stats and this guy doesn’t have any.
Hmmm, so getting publicity to potentially get on TV as an analyst and generating web traffic aren’t motivation ?
ParticipantP.S. – An updated rent trends chart which shows some deceleration of rent increases is available on page 43 of the following CSUN SFV report …
http://www.csun.edu/sfverc/reports/pdfs/08/CSUN_SFV_Economic_Report_08.pdf
ParticipantP.S. – An updated rent trends chart which shows some deceleration of rent increases is available on page 43 of the following CSUN SFV report …
http://www.csun.edu/sfverc/reports/pdfs/08/CSUN_SFV_Economic_Report_08.pdf
ParticipantP.S. – An updated rent trends chart which shows some deceleration of rent increases is available on page 43 of the following CSUN SFV report …
http://www.csun.edu/sfverc/reports/pdfs/08/CSUN_SFV_Economic_Report_08.pdf
ParticipantP.S. – An updated rent trends chart which shows some deceleration of rent increases is available on page 43 of the following CSUN SFV report …
http://www.csun.edu/sfverc/reports/pdfs/08/CSUN_SFV_Economic_Report_08.pdf
ParticipantP.S. – An updated rent trends chart which shows some deceleration of rent increases is available on page 43 of the following CSUN SFV report …
http://www.csun.edu/sfverc/reports/pdfs/08/CSUN_SFV_Economic_Report_08.pdf
ParticipantAs for what rate to use when compenmsating for differences between year X and now. SOme say to use 3% some 6, some 7. Why not use the change in rent ?
Market rent reflects what people are willing and able to pay monthly for a roof over their heads. It is not subject (directly) to speculation. It reflects supply/demand and people’s ability and willingness to pay. Using market rent regardless of what CPI or shadow stats say about inflation is the best indication of the monthly vlaue of a roof over one’s head at any given point in time.For reference the change in rent for large complexes in San Diego averaged a bit over $700 in 1996 and as of 2006 was about $1300 per the reference below (page 4):
http://www.csun.edu/sfverc/reports/pdfs/07/3Q2006realestate.pdfParticipantAs for what rate to use when compenmsating for differences between year X and now. SOme say to use 3% some 6, some 7. Why not use the change in rent ?
Market rent reflects what people are willing and able to pay monthly for a roof over their heads. It is not subject (directly) to speculation. It reflects supply/demand and people’s ability and willingness to pay. Using market rent regardless of what CPI or shadow stats say about inflation is the best indication of the monthly vlaue of a roof over one’s head at any given point in time.For reference the change in rent for large complexes in San Diego averaged a bit over $700 in 1996 and as of 2006 was about $1300 per the reference below (page 4):
http://www.csun.edu/sfverc/reports/pdfs/07/3Q2006realestate.pdfParticipantAs for what rate to use when compenmsating for differences between year X and now. SOme say to use 3% some 6, some 7. Why not use the change in rent ?
Market rent reflects what people are willing and able to pay monthly for a roof over their heads. It is not subject (directly) to speculation. It reflects supply/demand and people’s ability and willingness to pay. Using market rent regardless of what CPI or shadow stats say about inflation is the best indication of the monthly vlaue of a roof over one’s head at any given point in time.For reference the change in rent for large complexes in San Diego averaged a bit over $700 in 1996 and as of 2006 was about $1300 per the reference below (page 4):
http://www.csun.edu/sfverc/reports/pdfs/07/3Q2006realestate.pdfParticipantAs for what rate to use when compenmsating for differences between year X and now. SOme say to use 3% some 6, some 7. Why not use the change in rent ?
Market rent reflects what people are willing and able to pay monthly for a roof over their heads. It is not subject (directly) to speculation. It reflects supply/demand and people’s ability and willingness to pay. Using market rent regardless of what CPI or shadow stats say about inflation is the best indication of the monthly vlaue of a roof over one’s head at any given point in time.For reference the change in rent for large complexes in San Diego averaged a bit over $700 in 1996 and as of 2006 was about $1300 per the reference below (page 4):
http://www.csun.edu/sfverc/reports/pdfs/07/3Q2006realestate.pdfParticipantAs for what rate to use when compenmsating for differences between year X and now. SOme say to use 3% some 6, some 7. Why not use the change in rent ?
Market rent reflects what people are willing and able to pay monthly for a roof over their heads. It is not subject (directly) to speculation. It reflects supply/demand and people’s ability and willingness to pay. Using market rent regardless of what CPI or shadow stats say about inflation is the best indication of the monthly vlaue of a roof over one’s head at any given point in time.For reference the change in rent for large complexes in San Diego averaged a bit over $700 in 1996 and as of 2006 was about $1300 per the reference below (page 4):
http://www.csun.edu/sfverc/reports/pdfs/07/3Q2006realestate.pdfParticipantFormerSanDiegan, you mean 1996 and not 2006, right?
Oops! you are right AN, it was 1996.
As for it’s value today … An identical house on a similar lot in the neighborhood sold for about 420K in March.
My best guess is that our old house (we sold it in 2001 after buyinmg another in 2000 and renting out the Clairemont house one out for a year) would sell quickly at 375K and possibly up to 400K.Assuming 375K I come up with about $2450 for PITI currently (assume 6%, 90% LTV, ignoring PMI since I don’t knowe what PMI rates are these days). It would rent for aroud $2000 per month.
Compare this to 1996 carrying costs of about 1250 for PITI (assuming 8% interest, 90% LTV and ignoring PMI). Back then would have rented for $1100 per month.
So, we’re still about 10% higher today in terms of relative monthly carrying costs of buying vs renting in Clairemont compared to 1996. Of course, if interest rates rise significantly or rents decrease we would be looking at a larger difference.
ParticipantFormerSanDiegan, you mean 1996 and not 2006, right?
Oops! you are right AN, it was 1996.
As for it’s value today … An identical house on a similar lot in the neighborhood sold for about 420K in March.
My best guess is that our old house (we sold it in 2001 after buyinmg another in 2000 and renting out the Clairemont house one out for a year) would sell quickly at 375K and possibly up to 400K.Assuming 375K I come up with about $2450 for PITI currently (assume 6%, 90% LTV, ignoring PMI since I don’t knowe what PMI rates are these days). It would rent for aroud $2000 per month.
Compare this to 1996 carrying costs of about 1250 for PITI (assuming 8% interest, 90% LTV and ignoring PMI). Back then would have rented for $1100 per month.
So, we’re still about 10% higher today in terms of relative monthly carrying costs of buying vs renting in Clairemont compared to 1996. Of course, if interest rates rise significantly or rents decrease we would be looking at a larger difference.
ParticipantFormerSanDiegan, you mean 1996 and not 2006, right?
Oops! you are right AN, it was 1996.
As for it’s value today … An identical house on a similar lot in the neighborhood sold for about 420K in March.
My best guess is that our old house (we sold it in 2001 after buyinmg another in 2000 and renting out the Clairemont house one out for a year) would sell quickly at 375K and possibly up to 400K.Assuming 375K I come up with about $2450 for PITI currently (assume 6%, 90% LTV, ignoring PMI since I don’t knowe what PMI rates are these days). It would rent for aroud $2000 per month.
Compare this to 1996 carrying costs of about 1250 for PITI (assuming 8% interest, 90% LTV and ignoring PMI). Back then would have rented for $1100 per month.
So, we’re still about 10% higher today in terms of relative monthly carrying costs of buying vs renting in Clairemont compared to 1996. Of course, if interest rates rise significantly or rents decrease we would be looking at a larger difference.
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