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(former)FormerSanDiegan
Participant[quote=BKinLA]Looks like it’s been downgraded to a 5.4 magnitude.
Of course, the 5.8 factor still applies to the impact on the So Cal housing market as a result of the tremor. “Honey, pack your bags. We’re going back to Kansas!”
[/quote]The odd thing is that they are about 3 times as likely to die in a tornado in Kansas than an earthquake in LA.
In the past 20 years about 50 people have died in tornados in the state of Kansas, population 2.7 Million. A rate of 18 per million people.
IN the past 20 years about 72 people have died as a result of earthquake in the Los Angeles Metro area, population 12.8 million. .
A rate of 5.6 per million people.July 29, 2008 at 8:26 AM in reply to: La Jolla SFRs at $583/Sqft. last month. Condos also drop over 45% in Price #248586Participantjpinpb – cool chart. It seems the primary price ranges with reasonable inventory levels (4-6 months) are less than 600K and the 1-1.2 Million. Just guessing based on pirce that the less than 600K are condos and the 1-1.2 M are “affordable” SFRs. So, the primary driver in the La Jolla market is affordability. I would assume that the coastal area markets are starting to act like the rest of the county. Price declines, followed by most of the activity occurring in the lower end.
July 29, 2008 at 8:26 AM in reply to: La Jolla SFRs at $583/Sqft. last month. Condos also drop over 45% in Price #248742Participantjpinpb – cool chart. It seems the primary price ranges with reasonable inventory levels (4-6 months) are less than 600K and the 1-1.2 Million. Just guessing based on pirce that the less than 600K are condos and the 1-1.2 M are “affordable” SFRs. So, the primary driver in the La Jolla market is affordability. I would assume that the coastal area markets are starting to act like the rest of the county. Price declines, followed by most of the activity occurring in the lower end.
July 29, 2008 at 8:26 AM in reply to: La Jolla SFRs at $583/Sqft. last month. Condos also drop over 45% in Price #248748Participantjpinpb – cool chart. It seems the primary price ranges with reasonable inventory levels (4-6 months) are less than 600K and the 1-1.2 Million. Just guessing based on pirce that the less than 600K are condos and the 1-1.2 M are “affordable” SFRs. So, the primary driver in the La Jolla market is affordability. I would assume that the coastal area markets are starting to act like the rest of the county. Price declines, followed by most of the activity occurring in the lower end.
July 29, 2008 at 8:26 AM in reply to: La Jolla SFRs at $583/Sqft. last month. Condos also drop over 45% in Price #248807Participantjpinpb – cool chart. It seems the primary price ranges with reasonable inventory levels (4-6 months) are less than 600K and the 1-1.2 Million. Just guessing based on pirce that the less than 600K are condos and the 1-1.2 M are “affordable” SFRs. So, the primary driver in the La Jolla market is affordability. I would assume that the coastal area markets are starting to act like the rest of the county. Price declines, followed by most of the activity occurring in the lower end.
July 29, 2008 at 8:26 AM in reply to: La Jolla SFRs at $583/Sqft. last month. Condos also drop over 45% in Price #248815Participantjpinpb – cool chart. It seems the primary price ranges with reasonable inventory levels (4-6 months) are less than 600K and the 1-1.2 Million. Just guessing based on pirce that the less than 600K are condos and the 1-1.2 M are “affordable” SFRs. So, the primary driver in the La Jolla market is affordability. I would assume that the coastal area markets are starting to act like the rest of the county. Price declines, followed by most of the activity occurring in the lower end.
July 28, 2008 at 5:35 PM in reply to: La Jolla SFRs at $583/Sqft. last month. Condos also drop over 45% in Price #248340Participant…and the point is …
Hype and citing alarming numbers dilutes the otherwise sound message that there is significant weakness in the high-end areas (like La Jolla) that is likely to worsen.
July 28, 2008 at 5:35 PM in reply to: La Jolla SFRs at $583/Sqft. last month. Condos also drop over 45% in Price #248498Participant…and the point is …
Hype and citing alarming numbers dilutes the otherwise sound message that there is significant weakness in the high-end areas (like La Jolla) that is likely to worsen.
July 28, 2008 at 5:35 PM in reply to: La Jolla SFRs at $583/Sqft. last month. Condos also drop over 45% in Price #248502Participant…and the point is …
Hype and citing alarming numbers dilutes the otherwise sound message that there is significant weakness in the high-end areas (like La Jolla) that is likely to worsen.
July 28, 2008 at 5:35 PM in reply to: La Jolla SFRs at $583/Sqft. last month. Condos also drop over 45% in Price #248561Participant…and the point is …
Hype and citing alarming numbers dilutes the otherwise sound message that there is significant weakness in the high-end areas (like La Jolla) that is likely to worsen.
July 28, 2008 at 5:35 PM in reply to: La Jolla SFRs at $583/Sqft. last month. Condos also drop over 45% in Price #248569Participant…and the point is …
Hype and citing alarming numbers dilutes the otherwise sound message that there is significant weakness in the high-end areas (like La Jolla) that is likely to worsen.
July 28, 2008 at 5:32 PM in reply to: La Jolla SFRs at $583/Sqft. last month. Condos also drop over 45% in Price #248331ParticipantA pet peeve of mine: Monthly median zip-code numbers !
These monthly zip-code specific median prices are extremely noisy. Taken in isolation they do not provide an accurate measure of the change in the price of houses.One must look at the trend and smooth month-to-month fluctuations and consider the amount of noise in the statistic.
The 32% decline from June 2007- June 2008 is not necessarily indicative, because the monthly median is such a noisy indicator.
Consider the March 2008 numbers from the same source. March 2008 saw a 46% increase in the price in La Jolla. I don;t believe that was indicative of the market at that point in time either.
See the La Jolla monthly median chart below. The month-to-month measure is extremely noisy. Differences of month-to-month figures (e.g. year-over-year) are even noisier because you are differencing two noisy variables (ask someone with a background in statistics if you don’t get this.)
Based on the trends plotted, and accounting for noise in the measurements, I’d estimate that La Jolla SFRs are down between 16% to 22% from the
peak in late 2005 (most of which is in the last 12-18 months) and trending down.[img_assist|nid=8416|title=La Jolla monthly medians – DataQuick as reported by signonsandiego.com|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=75]
July 28, 2008 at 5:32 PM in reply to: La Jolla SFRs at $583/Sqft. last month. Condos also drop over 45% in Price #248488ParticipantA pet peeve of mine: Monthly median zip-code numbers !
These monthly zip-code specific median prices are extremely noisy. Taken in isolation they do not provide an accurate measure of the change in the price of houses.One must look at the trend and smooth month-to-month fluctuations and consider the amount of noise in the statistic.
The 32% decline from June 2007- June 2008 is not necessarily indicative, because the monthly median is such a noisy indicator.
Consider the March 2008 numbers from the same source. March 2008 saw a 46% increase in the price in La Jolla. I don;t believe that was indicative of the market at that point in time either.
See the La Jolla monthly median chart below. The month-to-month measure is extremely noisy. Differences of month-to-month figures (e.g. year-over-year) are even noisier because you are differencing two noisy variables (ask someone with a background in statistics if you don’t get this.)
Based on the trends plotted, and accounting for noise in the measurements, I’d estimate that La Jolla SFRs are down between 16% to 22% from the
peak in late 2005 (most of which is in the last 12-18 months) and trending down.[img_assist|nid=8416|title=La Jolla monthly medians – DataQuick as reported by signonsandiego.com|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=75]
July 28, 2008 at 5:32 PM in reply to: La Jolla SFRs at $583/Sqft. last month. Condos also drop over 45% in Price #248492ParticipantA pet peeve of mine: Monthly median zip-code numbers !
These monthly zip-code specific median prices are extremely noisy. Taken in isolation they do not provide an accurate measure of the change in the price of houses.One must look at the trend and smooth month-to-month fluctuations and consider the amount of noise in the statistic.
The 32% decline from June 2007- June 2008 is not necessarily indicative, because the monthly median is such a noisy indicator.
Consider the March 2008 numbers from the same source. March 2008 saw a 46% increase in the price in La Jolla. I don;t believe that was indicative of the market at that point in time either.
See the La Jolla monthly median chart below. The month-to-month measure is extremely noisy. Differences of month-to-month figures (e.g. year-over-year) are even noisier because you are differencing two noisy variables (ask someone with a background in statistics if you don’t get this.)
Based on the trends plotted, and accounting for noise in the measurements, I’d estimate that La Jolla SFRs are down between 16% to 22% from the
peak in late 2005 (most of which is in the last 12-18 months) and trending down.[img_assist|nid=8416|title=La Jolla monthly medians – DataQuick as reported by signonsandiego.com|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=75]
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