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(former)FormerSanDiegan
Participant[quote=BGinRB][quote=FormerSanDiegan][quote=BGinRB]I just tried to think of model of a person who could really afford a $300K housing unit. I don’t see that person being interested in 55y old 2/1.
The only possibility I see would be a retiree with strong ties to the area. [/quote]How about a young married couple in their late 20’s/early 30’s making a combined 80K (40 K each) who are tired of apartment life after 5 years ?
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I assumed they would want to have a kid or two in the next several years. In that case 2/1 would not fit. They would rent for another year or two and then look for 3/2.
[/quote]
Look at how many younger couples buy 2 BR condos. At the right price, a 2-1 seems like a great entry level option, especially for couples where having a kid is either not explicitly in the plans yet or is notionally 3-5 years in the future. In fact, we bought a 2/1 when we had a 9-month old baby. (we later added on).
ParticipantThe number was based on sales as reported by DataQuick. Sales were so low in Sept 2007 that it was a fairly easy number to beat. Also, Sept 08 sales were higher than August ’08, so there was some relative strength in the number of sales. This was driven by lower priced homes and foreclosures.
We may have seen the bottom in sales, but remember it takes a couple years of sustained changes in sales to start impacting price. Remember, sales peaked in 2003 or so and prices didn’t start dropping noticeably until late 2005.In the early-mid 1990’s slump sales bottomed somewhere around 1993, but prices didn’t pick up until 1996 or later in some areas.
So, even if Fall 2007 was the bottom in sales, there is plenty of must-sell and want to sell inventory in the pipeline that one doesn’t need to worry about missing the upswing for at least a year or two.
ParticipantThe number was based on sales as reported by DataQuick. Sales were so low in Sept 2007 that it was a fairly easy number to beat. Also, Sept 08 sales were higher than August ’08, so there was some relative strength in the number of sales. This was driven by lower priced homes and foreclosures.
We may have seen the bottom in sales, but remember it takes a couple years of sustained changes in sales to start impacting price. Remember, sales peaked in 2003 or so and prices didn’t start dropping noticeably until late 2005.In the early-mid 1990’s slump sales bottomed somewhere around 1993, but prices didn’t pick up until 1996 or later in some areas.
So, even if Fall 2007 was the bottom in sales, there is plenty of must-sell and want to sell inventory in the pipeline that one doesn’t need to worry about missing the upswing for at least a year or two.
ParticipantThe number was based on sales as reported by DataQuick. Sales were so low in Sept 2007 that it was a fairly easy number to beat. Also, Sept 08 sales were higher than August ’08, so there was some relative strength in the number of sales. This was driven by lower priced homes and foreclosures.
We may have seen the bottom in sales, but remember it takes a couple years of sustained changes in sales to start impacting price. Remember, sales peaked in 2003 or so and prices didn’t start dropping noticeably until late 2005.In the early-mid 1990’s slump sales bottomed somewhere around 1993, but prices didn’t pick up until 1996 or later in some areas.
So, even if Fall 2007 was the bottom in sales, there is plenty of must-sell and want to sell inventory in the pipeline that one doesn’t need to worry about missing the upswing for at least a year or two.
ParticipantThe number was based on sales as reported by DataQuick. Sales were so low in Sept 2007 that it was a fairly easy number to beat. Also, Sept 08 sales were higher than August ’08, so there was some relative strength in the number of sales. This was driven by lower priced homes and foreclosures.
We may have seen the bottom in sales, but remember it takes a couple years of sustained changes in sales to start impacting price. Remember, sales peaked in 2003 or so and prices didn’t start dropping noticeably until late 2005.In the early-mid 1990’s slump sales bottomed somewhere around 1993, but prices didn’t pick up until 1996 or later in some areas.
So, even if Fall 2007 was the bottom in sales, there is plenty of must-sell and want to sell inventory in the pipeline that one doesn’t need to worry about missing the upswing for at least a year or two.
ParticipantThe number was based on sales as reported by DataQuick. Sales were so low in Sept 2007 that it was a fairly easy number to beat. Also, Sept 08 sales were higher than August ’08, so there was some relative strength in the number of sales. This was driven by lower priced homes and foreclosures.
We may have seen the bottom in sales, but remember it takes a couple years of sustained changes in sales to start impacting price. Remember, sales peaked in 2003 or so and prices didn’t start dropping noticeably until late 2005.In the early-mid 1990’s slump sales bottomed somewhere around 1993, but prices didn’t pick up until 1996 or later in some areas.
So, even if Fall 2007 was the bottom in sales, there is plenty of must-sell and want to sell inventory in the pipeline that one doesn’t need to worry about missing the upswing for at least a year or two.
Participant[quote=BGinRB]I just tried to think of model of a person who could really afford a $300K housing unit. I don’t see that person being interested in 55y old 2/1.
The only possibility I see would be a retiree with strong ties to the area. [/quote]How about a young married couple in their late 20’s/early 30’s making a combined 80K (40 K each) who are tired of apartment life after 5 years ?
Participant[quote=BGinRB]I just tried to think of model of a person who could really afford a $300K housing unit. I don’t see that person being interested in 55y old 2/1.
The only possibility I see would be a retiree with strong ties to the area. [/quote]How about a young married couple in their late 20’s/early 30’s making a combined 80K (40 K each) who are tired of apartment life after 5 years ?
Participant[quote=BGinRB]I just tried to think of model of a person who could really afford a $300K housing unit. I don’t see that person being interested in 55y old 2/1.
The only possibility I see would be a retiree with strong ties to the area. [/quote]How about a young married couple in their late 20’s/early 30’s making a combined 80K (40 K each) who are tired of apartment life after 5 years ?
Participant[quote=BGinRB]I just tried to think of model of a person who could really afford a $300K housing unit. I don’t see that person being interested in 55y old 2/1.
The only possibility I see would be a retiree with strong ties to the area. [/quote]How about a young married couple in their late 20’s/early 30’s making a combined 80K (40 K each) who are tired of apartment life after 5 years ?
Participant[quote=BGinRB]I just tried to think of model of a person who could really afford a $300K housing unit. I don’t see that person being interested in 55y old 2/1.
The only possibility I see would be a retiree with strong ties to the area. [/quote]How about a young married couple in their late 20’s/early 30’s making a combined 80K (40 K each) who are tired of apartment life after 5 years ?
October 20, 2008 at 1:43 PM in reply to: October 21st – a date to be remembered as when the floor falls out #290216Participant[quote=lonestar2000][quote=Enorah]According to this article it would seem that the auctions for Lehman Brothers have already happened
http://www.cnbc.com/id/27193149
says that the Wamu cash settlement auction is on Oct 23.[/quote]
Aye, the auction took place already, but the final settlement is not until next week, on the 20th or 21st. That is when those owing must actually pay up. However, the more I read, the more it seems that so many holders were both sellers and buyers of Lehman CDSs, that the majority of money actually trading hands is closer to the $6 billion range. This may yet be a non-issue, but that remains to be seen.[/quote]
So, what you are saying is that this is either
A.) “a non-issue”
or
B.) “remembered for centuries to come as the day the floor fell out of the financial system”
Thanks for clarifying.
October 20, 2008 at 1:43 PM in reply to: October 21st – a date to be remembered as when the floor falls out #290525Participant[quote=lonestar2000][quote=Enorah]According to this article it would seem that the auctions for Lehman Brothers have already happened
http://www.cnbc.com/id/27193149
says that the Wamu cash settlement auction is on Oct 23.[/quote]
Aye, the auction took place already, but the final settlement is not until next week, on the 20th or 21st. That is when those owing must actually pay up. However, the more I read, the more it seems that so many holders were both sellers and buyers of Lehman CDSs, that the majority of money actually trading hands is closer to the $6 billion range. This may yet be a non-issue, but that remains to be seen.[/quote]
So, what you are saying is that this is either
A.) “a non-issue”
or
B.) “remembered for centuries to come as the day the floor fell out of the financial system”
Thanks for clarifying.
October 20, 2008 at 1:43 PM in reply to: October 21st – a date to be remembered as when the floor falls out #290529Participant[quote=lonestar2000][quote=Enorah]According to this article it would seem that the auctions for Lehman Brothers have already happened
http://www.cnbc.com/id/27193149
says that the Wamu cash settlement auction is on Oct 23.[/quote]
Aye, the auction took place already, but the final settlement is not until next week, on the 20th or 21st. That is when those owing must actually pay up. However, the more I read, the more it seems that so many holders were both sellers and buyers of Lehman CDSs, that the majority of money actually trading hands is closer to the $6 billion range. This may yet be a non-issue, but that remains to be seen.[/quote]
So, what you are saying is that this is either
A.) “a non-issue”
or
B.) “remembered for centuries to come as the day the floor fell out of the financial system”
Thanks for clarifying.
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