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(former)FormerSanDiegan
Participant[quote=4plexowner]”In fact, the recent five-month decline of 31% was the sharpest five months of losses since the bear market of 1937.”
again, from Richard Russell’s Feb 2 missive
notice he didn’t say, “… since the bear market of 2000-2003”
[/quote]Simple. This decline is steeper than the decline in 2000-2003.
It does not mean there was not a bear market during that period.
[img_assist|nid=10205|title=S&P500|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=75]
ParticipantIf you want to sell, you need to go out of your way to make it convenient and easy for people to view your property.
ParticipantIf you want to sell, you need to go out of your way to make it convenient and easy for people to view your property.
ParticipantIf you want to sell, you need to go out of your way to make it convenient and easy for people to view your property.
ParticipantIf you want to sell, you need to go out of your way to make it convenient and easy for people to view your property.
ParticipantIf you want to sell, you need to go out of your way to make it convenient and easy for people to view your property.
Participant[quote=stockstradr]FormerSanDiegan,
4plexowner’s post was VERY sharp, very insightful. I say that 4plexowner is NOT confused and is correct with that post.
Some of the most legendary, decades-long-stellar track record hedge fund managers have same analysis on 2000 to 2007 period as 4plexowner’s post.
Their view is that great bear market (and great depression) began with the dot com market crash (but that decline was not allowed to run its natural course, it was instead artificially “kicked forward” to now.
But now we don’t have any ammo left to kick the can forward some more.[/quote]
I agree that we entered a secular bear in 2000 and that the Fed’s response to the stock market bubble collapse did lead to the further inflation of the housing bubble.
My point is that his statement that “we just finished a 25 year bull market in US equities” is
false.How could we have just finished a 25 year bull market in equities, when a mere 6 years ago we had just experienced a 40-50% decline in equities ?
His assertion that “to think that a 25 year bull market can be corrected in 15 months is fairly amusing” is misleading since, in fact the bull run ended in 2000 and we have been in a secular bear market for 8-9 years, not 15 months.
Participant[quote=stockstradr]FormerSanDiegan,
4plexowner’s post was VERY sharp, very insightful. I say that 4plexowner is NOT confused and is correct with that post.
Some of the most legendary, decades-long-stellar track record hedge fund managers have same analysis on 2000 to 2007 period as 4plexowner’s post.
Their view is that great bear market (and great depression) began with the dot com market crash (but that decline was not allowed to run its natural course, it was instead artificially “kicked forward” to now.
But now we don’t have any ammo left to kick the can forward some more.[/quote]
I agree that we entered a secular bear in 2000 and that the Fed’s response to the stock market bubble collapse did lead to the further inflation of the housing bubble.
My point is that his statement that “we just finished a 25 year bull market in US equities” is
false.How could we have just finished a 25 year bull market in equities, when a mere 6 years ago we had just experienced a 40-50% decline in equities ?
His assertion that “to think that a 25 year bull market can be corrected in 15 months is fairly amusing” is misleading since, in fact the bull run ended in 2000 and we have been in a secular bear market for 8-9 years, not 15 months.
Participant[quote=stockstradr]FormerSanDiegan,
4plexowner’s post was VERY sharp, very insightful. I say that 4plexowner is NOT confused and is correct with that post.
Some of the most legendary, decades-long-stellar track record hedge fund managers have same analysis on 2000 to 2007 period as 4plexowner’s post.
Their view is that great bear market (and great depression) began with the dot com market crash (but that decline was not allowed to run its natural course, it was instead artificially “kicked forward” to now.
But now we don’t have any ammo left to kick the can forward some more.[/quote]
I agree that we entered a secular bear in 2000 and that the Fed’s response to the stock market bubble collapse did lead to the further inflation of the housing bubble.
My point is that his statement that “we just finished a 25 year bull market in US equities” is
false.How could we have just finished a 25 year bull market in equities, when a mere 6 years ago we had just experienced a 40-50% decline in equities ?
His assertion that “to think that a 25 year bull market can be corrected in 15 months is fairly amusing” is misleading since, in fact the bull run ended in 2000 and we have been in a secular bear market for 8-9 years, not 15 months.
Participant[quote=stockstradr]FormerSanDiegan,
4plexowner’s post was VERY sharp, very insightful. I say that 4plexowner is NOT confused and is correct with that post.
Some of the most legendary, decades-long-stellar track record hedge fund managers have same analysis on 2000 to 2007 period as 4plexowner’s post.
Their view is that great bear market (and great depression) began with the dot com market crash (but that decline was not allowed to run its natural course, it was instead artificially “kicked forward” to now.
But now we don’t have any ammo left to kick the can forward some more.[/quote]
I agree that we entered a secular bear in 2000 and that the Fed’s response to the stock market bubble collapse did lead to the further inflation of the housing bubble.
My point is that his statement that “we just finished a 25 year bull market in US equities” is
false.How could we have just finished a 25 year bull market in equities, when a mere 6 years ago we had just experienced a 40-50% decline in equities ?
His assertion that “to think that a 25 year bull market can be corrected in 15 months is fairly amusing” is misleading since, in fact the bull run ended in 2000 and we have been in a secular bear market for 8-9 years, not 15 months.
Participant[quote=stockstradr]FormerSanDiegan,
4plexowner’s post was VERY sharp, very insightful. I say that 4plexowner is NOT confused and is correct with that post.
Some of the most legendary, decades-long-stellar track record hedge fund managers have same analysis on 2000 to 2007 period as 4plexowner’s post.
Their view is that great bear market (and great depression) began with the dot com market crash (but that decline was not allowed to run its natural course, it was instead artificially “kicked forward” to now.
But now we don’t have any ammo left to kick the can forward some more.[/quote]
I agree that we entered a secular bear in 2000 and that the Fed’s response to the stock market bubble collapse did lead to the further inflation of the housing bubble.
My point is that his statement that “we just finished a 25 year bull market in US equities” is
false.How could we have just finished a 25 year bull market in equities, when a mere 6 years ago we had just experienced a 40-50% decline in equities ?
His assertion that “to think that a 25 year bull market can be corrected in 15 months is fairly amusing” is misleading since, in fact the bull run ended in 2000 and we have been in a secular bear market for 8-9 years, not 15 months.
ParticipantI like the example that HLS gave. Note that there were a number of cycles during the period of 1965 to 1984. Accumulating stocks during the bear portions of these cycles would have paid off handsomely, even in 1984.
These long periods or trends are considered secular trends. The markets have been in a secular bear trend since 2000. We are into the second cyclical bear market in this trend. I’m betting that accumulating shares during the cyclical bear markets will pay off in the long run. I am also hedging my bets with alternative investments and not all-in on stocks (currently about 50% of portfolio).
You guys who can predict where the market is 3, , and 12 months from now have the luxury of staking your future on that knowledge and can act on those instincts.
I however know that I personally do not have those capabilities. I will always be wrong in the short run, but comfortable in the fact that I don’t have to be right all the time either.
To each his own.
ParticipantI like the example that HLS gave. Note that there were a number of cycles during the period of 1965 to 1984. Accumulating stocks during the bear portions of these cycles would have paid off handsomely, even in 1984.
These long periods or trends are considered secular trends. The markets have been in a secular bear trend since 2000. We are into the second cyclical bear market in this trend. I’m betting that accumulating shares during the cyclical bear markets will pay off in the long run. I am also hedging my bets with alternative investments and not all-in on stocks (currently about 50% of portfolio).
You guys who can predict where the market is 3, , and 12 months from now have the luxury of staking your future on that knowledge and can act on those instincts.
I however know that I personally do not have those capabilities. I will always be wrong in the short run, but comfortable in the fact that I don’t have to be right all the time either.
To each his own.
ParticipantI like the example that HLS gave. Note that there were a number of cycles during the period of 1965 to 1984. Accumulating stocks during the bear portions of these cycles would have paid off handsomely, even in 1984.
These long periods or trends are considered secular trends. The markets have been in a secular bear trend since 2000. We are into the second cyclical bear market in this trend. I’m betting that accumulating shares during the cyclical bear markets will pay off in the long run. I am also hedging my bets with alternative investments and not all-in on stocks (currently about 50% of portfolio).
You guys who can predict where the market is 3, , and 12 months from now have the luxury of staking your future on that knowledge and can act on those instincts.
I however know that I personally do not have those capabilities. I will always be wrong in the short run, but comfortable in the fact that I don’t have to be right all the time either.
To each his own.
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