Forum Replies Created
-
AuthorPosts
-
(former)FormerSanDiegan
ParticipantSecond, your chart nicely shows the tail end of the last secular bear (ending in early 1980’s) the 18-year secular bull that ended in 2000 and the current secular bear.
[img_assist|nid=10213|title=Chart showing secular bear and secular bull markets|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=500|height=288]
ParticipantFirst things first. Your chart nicely shows the bear market of 2000-2003, which you seem to ignore.
[img_assist|nid=10212|title=Bear Market 2000-2003|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=500|height=280]
ParticipantFirst things first. Your chart nicely shows the bear market of 2000-2003, which you seem to ignore.
[img_assist|nid=10212|title=Bear Market 2000-2003|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=500|height=280]
ParticipantFirst things first. Your chart nicely shows the bear market of 2000-2003, which you seem to ignore.
[img_assist|nid=10212|title=Bear Market 2000-2003|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=500|height=280]
ParticipantFirst things first. Your chart nicely shows the bear market of 2000-2003, which you seem to ignore.
[img_assist|nid=10212|title=Bear Market 2000-2003|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=500|height=280]
ParticipantFirst things first. Your chart nicely shows the bear market of 2000-2003, which you seem to ignore.
[img_assist|nid=10212|title=Bear Market 2000-2003|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=500|height=280]
Participant[quote=4plexowner]
I’m not seeing 8 or 9 years of secular bear market in this chart
must be something wrong with my eyes …[/quote]
Nothing wrong with your eyes, just focused very narrowly. The Dow is a narrow measure. And by that measure you are correct, the secular bear is not apparent in the DOW. But your chart still shows a bear market from 2000-2003, it is visually de-emphasized though, by plotting from zero on a linear scale.
A secular bear in the broad market (e.g. S&P 500 or Wilshire 5000) is apparent by the fact that each cyclical bear results in a new lower low.
The current bear will likely result in lows lower than the supposed bear market that ended in 2003.
So, maybe I am ahead of myself, but history will judge the current secular bear as starting in 2000.[img_assist|nid=10206|title=Annotated S&P 500 Chart|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=400|height=300]
Participant[quote=4plexowner]
I’m not seeing 8 or 9 years of secular bear market in this chart
must be something wrong with my eyes …[/quote]
Nothing wrong with your eyes, just focused very narrowly. The Dow is a narrow measure. And by that measure you are correct, the secular bear is not apparent in the DOW. But your chart still shows a bear market from 2000-2003, it is visually de-emphasized though, by plotting from zero on a linear scale.
A secular bear in the broad market (e.g. S&P 500 or Wilshire 5000) is apparent by the fact that each cyclical bear results in a new lower low.
The current bear will likely result in lows lower than the supposed bear market that ended in 2003.
So, maybe I am ahead of myself, but history will judge the current secular bear as starting in 2000.[img_assist|nid=10206|title=Annotated S&P 500 Chart|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=400|height=300]
Participant[quote=4plexowner]
I’m not seeing 8 or 9 years of secular bear market in this chart
must be something wrong with my eyes …[/quote]
Nothing wrong with your eyes, just focused very narrowly. The Dow is a narrow measure. And by that measure you are correct, the secular bear is not apparent in the DOW. But your chart still shows a bear market from 2000-2003, it is visually de-emphasized though, by plotting from zero on a linear scale.
A secular bear in the broad market (e.g. S&P 500 or Wilshire 5000) is apparent by the fact that each cyclical bear results in a new lower low.
The current bear will likely result in lows lower than the supposed bear market that ended in 2003.
So, maybe I am ahead of myself, but history will judge the current secular bear as starting in 2000.[img_assist|nid=10206|title=Annotated S&P 500 Chart|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=400|height=300]
Participant[quote=4plexowner]
I’m not seeing 8 or 9 years of secular bear market in this chart
must be something wrong with my eyes …[/quote]
Nothing wrong with your eyes, just focused very narrowly. The Dow is a narrow measure. And by that measure you are correct, the secular bear is not apparent in the DOW. But your chart still shows a bear market from 2000-2003, it is visually de-emphasized though, by plotting from zero on a linear scale.
A secular bear in the broad market (e.g. S&P 500 or Wilshire 5000) is apparent by the fact that each cyclical bear results in a new lower low.
The current bear will likely result in lows lower than the supposed bear market that ended in 2003.
So, maybe I am ahead of myself, but history will judge the current secular bear as starting in 2000.[img_assist|nid=10206|title=Annotated S&P 500 Chart|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=400|height=300]
Participant[quote=4plexowner]
I’m not seeing 8 or 9 years of secular bear market in this chart
must be something wrong with my eyes …[/quote]
Nothing wrong with your eyes, just focused very narrowly. The Dow is a narrow measure. And by that measure you are correct, the secular bear is not apparent in the DOW. But your chart still shows a bear market from 2000-2003, it is visually de-emphasized though, by plotting from zero on a linear scale.
A secular bear in the broad market (e.g. S&P 500 or Wilshire 5000) is apparent by the fact that each cyclical bear results in a new lower low.
The current bear will likely result in lows lower than the supposed bear market that ended in 2003.
So, maybe I am ahead of myself, but history will judge the current secular bear as starting in 2000.[img_assist|nid=10206|title=Annotated S&P 500 Chart|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=400|height=300]
Participant[quote=capeman]They’re still taking 5% Downs? That means we’re nowhere near bottom.
[/quote]
Not that history is any guide or anything, but we put 5% down on our house in 1996. I don’t think downpayment amounts are indicative of a a housing bottom.
Participant[quote=capeman]They’re still taking 5% Downs? That means we’re nowhere near bottom.
[/quote]
Not that history is any guide or anything, but we put 5% down on our house in 1996. I don’t think downpayment amounts are indicative of a a housing bottom.
Participant[quote=capeman]They’re still taking 5% Downs? That means we’re nowhere near bottom.
[/quote]
Not that history is any guide or anything, but we put 5% down on our house in 1996. I don’t think downpayment amounts are indicative of a a housing bottom.
-
AuthorPosts
