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(former)FormerSanDiegan
Participant[quote=sdrealtor]Low rates for the foreseeable future…housing prices falling slower and slower…inflation raising the price of everything else and eventually incomes also. Voila!! Back in balance at some point in the future. Since about 2004 I always thought it would be around 2011 or 2012.[/quote]
Balance in southern CA real estate tends to be a discrete point in time which we pass through rather quickly when going from one extreme to the other.
It’s like the Equinox, where for a brief moment, the night and day are in balance, but it occurs at the maximum rate of change between the extremes, resulting in a situation where being close to this perfect balance is a fleeting moment in time.Participant[quote=PadreBrian]I think there has been a few of us here that said starter home and the commuting burbs will bottom first. Period. So no news there.
[/quote]
This Mr. Mortgage guy is about 2 years behind the curve. As pabloesqobar and sdr also pointed out, we’ve been discussing this for a long time now. It’s to the point where I consider it obvious. But Mr Mortgage comes out with his theory in May 2009 based on detailed analysis of mortgage and default information. He is behind the curve on this one.
Nothing to see here unless you need confirmation.,Personally, rather than a double bottom, I think I’d rather prefer to see a nice wide bottom in which the two distinct markets carve out nearly identical forms, side-by-side, ultimately forming what jointly would be the perfect bottom.
kinda like this …
[img_assist|nid=8575|title=Hopefully this is what the bottom looks like|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=88|height=124]
Participant[quote=PadreBrian]I think there has been a few of us here that said starter home and the commuting burbs will bottom first. Period. So no news there.
[/quote]
This Mr. Mortgage guy is about 2 years behind the curve. As pabloesqobar and sdr also pointed out, we’ve been discussing this for a long time now. It’s to the point where I consider it obvious. But Mr Mortgage comes out with his theory in May 2009 based on detailed analysis of mortgage and default information. He is behind the curve on this one.
Nothing to see here unless you need confirmation.,Personally, rather than a double bottom, I think I’d rather prefer to see a nice wide bottom in which the two distinct markets carve out nearly identical forms, side-by-side, ultimately forming what jointly would be the perfect bottom.
kinda like this …
[img_assist|nid=8575|title=Hopefully this is what the bottom looks like|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=88|height=124]
Participant[quote=PadreBrian]I think there has been a few of us here that said starter home and the commuting burbs will bottom first. Period. So no news there.
[/quote]
This Mr. Mortgage guy is about 2 years behind the curve. As pabloesqobar and sdr also pointed out, we’ve been discussing this for a long time now. It’s to the point where I consider it obvious. But Mr Mortgage comes out with his theory in May 2009 based on detailed analysis of mortgage and default information. He is behind the curve on this one.
Nothing to see here unless you need confirmation.,Personally, rather than a double bottom, I think I’d rather prefer to see a nice wide bottom in which the two distinct markets carve out nearly identical forms, side-by-side, ultimately forming what jointly would be the perfect bottom.
kinda like this …
[img_assist|nid=8575|title=Hopefully this is what the bottom looks like|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=88|height=124]
Participant[quote=PadreBrian]I think there has been a few of us here that said starter home and the commuting burbs will bottom first. Period. So no news there.
[/quote]
This Mr. Mortgage guy is about 2 years behind the curve. As pabloesqobar and sdr also pointed out, we’ve been discussing this for a long time now. It’s to the point where I consider it obvious. But Mr Mortgage comes out with his theory in May 2009 based on detailed analysis of mortgage and default information. He is behind the curve on this one.
Nothing to see here unless you need confirmation.,Personally, rather than a double bottom, I think I’d rather prefer to see a nice wide bottom in which the two distinct markets carve out nearly identical forms, side-by-side, ultimately forming what jointly would be the perfect bottom.
kinda like this …
[img_assist|nid=8575|title=Hopefully this is what the bottom looks like|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=88|height=124]
Participant[quote=PadreBrian]I think there has been a few of us here that said starter home and the commuting burbs will bottom first. Period. So no news there.
[/quote]
This Mr. Mortgage guy is about 2 years behind the curve. As pabloesqobar and sdr also pointed out, we’ve been discussing this for a long time now. It’s to the point where I consider it obvious. But Mr Mortgage comes out with his theory in May 2009 based on detailed analysis of mortgage and default information. He is behind the curve on this one.
Nothing to see here unless you need confirmation.,Personally, rather than a double bottom, I think I’d rather prefer to see a nice wide bottom in which the two distinct markets carve out nearly identical forms, side-by-side, ultimately forming what jointly would be the perfect bottom.
kinda like this …
[img_assist|nid=8575|title=Hopefully this is what the bottom looks like|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=88|height=124]
Participant[quote=scaredycat]it’s not simple. it’s pretty complex. it’s impossible to predict any market short term. we may have some degree of confidence of where a market is going, but the way it gets there can be very surprising and the timing can be impossible to pin down. i’d say even if you knwo witha high degree of confidence that the general trajectory is down, you can be very surprised at the circuitous path it takes to get there. or as the late Kurt vonegut said, I think more or less, “Sometimes you ahve to go a very long ways out of your way to go a short ways correctly”.[/quote]
It really can be quite simple.
Rich’s original thesis for Piggington was that homes were overpriced by fundamental measures and therefore the prices were unsustainable. Simple and True.
Participant[quote=scaredycat]it’s not simple. it’s pretty complex. it’s impossible to predict any market short term. we may have some degree of confidence of where a market is going, but the way it gets there can be very surprising and the timing can be impossible to pin down. i’d say even if you knwo witha high degree of confidence that the general trajectory is down, you can be very surprised at the circuitous path it takes to get there. or as the late Kurt vonegut said, I think more or less, “Sometimes you ahve to go a very long ways out of your way to go a short ways correctly”.[/quote]
It really can be quite simple.
Rich’s original thesis for Piggington was that homes were overpriced by fundamental measures and therefore the prices were unsustainable. Simple and True.
Participant[quote=scaredycat]it’s not simple. it’s pretty complex. it’s impossible to predict any market short term. we may have some degree of confidence of where a market is going, but the way it gets there can be very surprising and the timing can be impossible to pin down. i’d say even if you knwo witha high degree of confidence that the general trajectory is down, you can be very surprised at the circuitous path it takes to get there. or as the late Kurt vonegut said, I think more or less, “Sometimes you ahve to go a very long ways out of your way to go a short ways correctly”.[/quote]
It really can be quite simple.
Rich’s original thesis for Piggington was that homes were overpriced by fundamental measures and therefore the prices were unsustainable. Simple and True.
Participant[quote=scaredycat]it’s not simple. it’s pretty complex. it’s impossible to predict any market short term. we may have some degree of confidence of where a market is going, but the way it gets there can be very surprising and the timing can be impossible to pin down. i’d say even if you knwo witha high degree of confidence that the general trajectory is down, you can be very surprised at the circuitous path it takes to get there. or as the late Kurt vonegut said, I think more or less, “Sometimes you ahve to go a very long ways out of your way to go a short ways correctly”.[/quote]
It really can be quite simple.
Rich’s original thesis for Piggington was that homes were overpriced by fundamental measures and therefore the prices were unsustainable. Simple and True.
Participant[quote=scaredycat]it’s not simple. it’s pretty complex. it’s impossible to predict any market short term. we may have some degree of confidence of where a market is going, but the way it gets there can be very surprising and the timing can be impossible to pin down. i’d say even if you knwo witha high degree of confidence that the general trajectory is down, you can be very surprised at the circuitous path it takes to get there. or as the late Kurt vonegut said, I think more or less, “Sometimes you ahve to go a very long ways out of your way to go a short ways correctly”.[/quote]
It really can be quite simple.
Rich’s original thesis for Piggington was that homes were overpriced by fundamental measures and therefore the prices were unsustainable. Simple and True.
Participant[quote=carlsbadworker]I think TG brought up a good point. As I remember for the survey “where you are here”, many of you claim that you are here to learn. I enjoy learning and the best method that I have found is to come up with a theory (or accept an existing theory), set out expectation based on such theory and then constantly check the reality with the expectation and modify the theory accordly.
So what do we have here? We have a decrease of inventory that was completely out of our expectation if we ask any of you to guess a year ago? So what could be the cause? It could be a decrease of the REO entering the market or it could be an increase of the sale activity. We have both. The decrease of the REO could be explained by the government activity, etc, whatever new theory we are coming up with. I think that is quite satisfactory since the NOD is increasing as we expected. But what about the increase of the sale? SoCal has over 50% yoy sale increase right now. In the middle of recession, and the equity market although recovering is still far below its recent high, it is a little bit surprise that the activity is rising so fast instead of dropping right now(note: that it is yoy increase so it should take care of the Spring buying season theory). I don’t have the answer, but maybe someone can come up with a theory to explain that…and then we will be closer to the truth, rather than just keeping insisting that the world is going to end like many of R.T.66’s post. His/her post is entertaining, but I don’t learn anything new from reading his/her post, because that theory was thrown at us years ago, wasn’t it?One last note: it is very easy to dismiss the data that you don’t like to see. Some of it can be statistical abnormalty. It takes a lot of work to get through the data to dismiss theory though…as Rich has shown through his excellent analysis of the “rent bubble” theory.[/quote]
I have a simple theory. Homes are much more affordable than they have been in a long time.
Participant[quote=carlsbadworker]I think TG brought up a good point. As I remember for the survey “where you are here”, many of you claim that you are here to learn. I enjoy learning and the best method that I have found is to come up with a theory (or accept an existing theory), set out expectation based on such theory and then constantly check the reality with the expectation and modify the theory accordly.
So what do we have here? We have a decrease of inventory that was completely out of our expectation if we ask any of you to guess a year ago? So what could be the cause? It could be a decrease of the REO entering the market or it could be an increase of the sale activity. We have both. The decrease of the REO could be explained by the government activity, etc, whatever new theory we are coming up with. I think that is quite satisfactory since the NOD is increasing as we expected. But what about the increase of the sale? SoCal has over 50% yoy sale increase right now. In the middle of recession, and the equity market although recovering is still far below its recent high, it is a little bit surprise that the activity is rising so fast instead of dropping right now(note: that it is yoy increase so it should take care of the Spring buying season theory). I don’t have the answer, but maybe someone can come up with a theory to explain that…and then we will be closer to the truth, rather than just keeping insisting that the world is going to end like many of R.T.66’s post. His/her post is entertaining, but I don’t learn anything new from reading his/her post, because that theory was thrown at us years ago, wasn’t it?One last note: it is very easy to dismiss the data that you don’t like to see. Some of it can be statistical abnormalty. It takes a lot of work to get through the data to dismiss theory though…as Rich has shown through his excellent analysis of the “rent bubble” theory.[/quote]
I have a simple theory. Homes are much more affordable than they have been in a long time.
Participant[quote=carlsbadworker]I think TG brought up a good point. As I remember for the survey “where you are here”, many of you claim that you are here to learn. I enjoy learning and the best method that I have found is to come up with a theory (or accept an existing theory), set out expectation based on such theory and then constantly check the reality with the expectation and modify the theory accordly.
So what do we have here? We have a decrease of inventory that was completely out of our expectation if we ask any of you to guess a year ago? So what could be the cause? It could be a decrease of the REO entering the market or it could be an increase of the sale activity. We have both. The decrease of the REO could be explained by the government activity, etc, whatever new theory we are coming up with. I think that is quite satisfactory since the NOD is increasing as we expected. But what about the increase of the sale? SoCal has over 50% yoy sale increase right now. In the middle of recession, and the equity market although recovering is still far below its recent high, it is a little bit surprise that the activity is rising so fast instead of dropping right now(note: that it is yoy increase so it should take care of the Spring buying season theory). I don’t have the answer, but maybe someone can come up with a theory to explain that…and then we will be closer to the truth, rather than just keeping insisting that the world is going to end like many of R.T.66’s post. His/her post is entertaining, but I don’t learn anything new from reading his/her post, because that theory was thrown at us years ago, wasn’t it?One last note: it is very easy to dismiss the data that you don’t like to see. Some of it can be statistical abnormalty. It takes a lot of work to get through the data to dismiss theory though…as Rich has shown through his excellent analysis of the “rent bubble” theory.[/quote]
I have a simple theory. Homes are much more affordable than they have been in a long time.
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