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(former)FormerSanDiegan
Participant[quote=SK in CV]There have been a few misconceptions thrown around in this thread, and a few things that need to be clarified. Some of these have already been covered. …
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Thanks for adding an additional voice of reason here.
Participant[quote=socrattt]
I had a meeting with some bankers at Chase on Friday and we discussed the issue of inventory. Chase alone currently has over 350,000 homes off the market. Sounds like anyone trying to predict the market could be off by a large margin if you ask me.
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350,000 shadow inventory certainly sounds large, but what does it mean ?
Where (geographically) are these distributed ? How many are in Vegas and Florida? How many are in Souther CA coastal regions ?
How large is this number with respect to home building ? (Both are potential future inventory)
Consider that housing starts have been at a rate of 1 to 1.7 Million units per year from around 1992 through 2006. In 2008-2009 we averaged about 700,000 units per year.
Even if we consider circa 1994 levels of 1.2 Million units, we have already underbuilt by 1 Million units.
Now this is by no means a complete analysis. Plenty of holes. But, the recycled housing available from shadow inventory may or may not be large, relative to the deficit of new homes built.
Ultimately, the impact of the shadow will depend on the location distribution of the shadow inventory and the timeframe over which it is released.
Participant[quote=socrattt]
I had a meeting with some bankers at Chase on Friday and we discussed the issue of inventory. Chase alone currently has over 350,000 homes off the market. Sounds like anyone trying to predict the market could be off by a large margin if you ask me.
[/quote]
350,000 shadow inventory certainly sounds large, but what does it mean ?
Where (geographically) are these distributed ? How many are in Vegas and Florida? How many are in Souther CA coastal regions ?
How large is this number with respect to home building ? (Both are potential future inventory)
Consider that housing starts have been at a rate of 1 to 1.7 Million units per year from around 1992 through 2006. In 2008-2009 we averaged about 700,000 units per year.
Even if we consider circa 1994 levels of 1.2 Million units, we have already underbuilt by 1 Million units.
Now this is by no means a complete analysis. Plenty of holes. But, the recycled housing available from shadow inventory may or may not be large, relative to the deficit of new homes built.
Ultimately, the impact of the shadow will depend on the location distribution of the shadow inventory and the timeframe over which it is released.
Participant[quote=socrattt]
I had a meeting with some bankers at Chase on Friday and we discussed the issue of inventory. Chase alone currently has over 350,000 homes off the market. Sounds like anyone trying to predict the market could be off by a large margin if you ask me.
[/quote]
350,000 shadow inventory certainly sounds large, but what does it mean ?
Where (geographically) are these distributed ? How many are in Vegas and Florida? How many are in Souther CA coastal regions ?
How large is this number with respect to home building ? (Both are potential future inventory)
Consider that housing starts have been at a rate of 1 to 1.7 Million units per year from around 1992 through 2006. In 2008-2009 we averaged about 700,000 units per year.
Even if we consider circa 1994 levels of 1.2 Million units, we have already underbuilt by 1 Million units.
Now this is by no means a complete analysis. Plenty of holes. But, the recycled housing available from shadow inventory may or may not be large, relative to the deficit of new homes built.
Ultimately, the impact of the shadow will depend on the location distribution of the shadow inventory and the timeframe over which it is released.
Participant[quote=socrattt]
I had a meeting with some bankers at Chase on Friday and we discussed the issue of inventory. Chase alone currently has over 350,000 homes off the market. Sounds like anyone trying to predict the market could be off by a large margin if you ask me.
[/quote]
350,000 shadow inventory certainly sounds large, but what does it mean ?
Where (geographically) are these distributed ? How many are in Vegas and Florida? How many are in Souther CA coastal regions ?
How large is this number with respect to home building ? (Both are potential future inventory)
Consider that housing starts have been at a rate of 1 to 1.7 Million units per year from around 1992 through 2006. In 2008-2009 we averaged about 700,000 units per year.
Even if we consider circa 1994 levels of 1.2 Million units, we have already underbuilt by 1 Million units.
Now this is by no means a complete analysis. Plenty of holes. But, the recycled housing available from shadow inventory may or may not be large, relative to the deficit of new homes built.
Ultimately, the impact of the shadow will depend on the location distribution of the shadow inventory and the timeframe over which it is released.
Participant[quote=socrattt]
I had a meeting with some bankers at Chase on Friday and we discussed the issue of inventory. Chase alone currently has over 350,000 homes off the market. Sounds like anyone trying to predict the market could be off by a large margin if you ask me.
[/quote]
350,000 shadow inventory certainly sounds large, but what does it mean ?
Where (geographically) are these distributed ? How many are in Vegas and Florida? How many are in Souther CA coastal regions ?
How large is this number with respect to home building ? (Both are potential future inventory)
Consider that housing starts have been at a rate of 1 to 1.7 Million units per year from around 1992 through 2006. In 2008-2009 we averaged about 700,000 units per year.
Even if we consider circa 1994 levels of 1.2 Million units, we have already underbuilt by 1 Million units.
Now this is by no means a complete analysis. Plenty of holes. But, the recycled housing available from shadow inventory may or may not be large, relative to the deficit of new homes built.
Ultimately, the impact of the shadow will depend on the location distribution of the shadow inventory and the timeframe over which it is released.
ParticipantYou are on a month-to-month lease. You have the right to end your lease with a month’s notice (sometimes less). You can exercise this right.
Or perhaps you want to stay or are asking about dealing with the owner marketing the property while you are still there.
I believe you have the right to 24-hour notice for showings. You do not have to leave the premises during the showings. See the reference belowfor more details …
If I were you, I would make lemonade out of the situation, even profit from it. Ask them to credit you some amount off the rent (e.g. $300 per month) in exchange for the hassle of say a 2-hour or 4-hour notice to show. Since you are living there, do not consent to lock boxes. It depends on your tolerance for trading off dollars for hassle and the owner’s willingness to negotiate this item, but take it under consideration.
Or if the whole process is too invasive, simply insist on your right to 24-hour notice and give your notice to vacate under the terms of your loan.
ParticipantYou are on a month-to-month lease. You have the right to end your lease with a month’s notice (sometimes less). You can exercise this right.
Or perhaps you want to stay or are asking about dealing with the owner marketing the property while you are still there.
I believe you have the right to 24-hour notice for showings. You do not have to leave the premises during the showings. See the reference belowfor more details …
If I were you, I would make lemonade out of the situation, even profit from it. Ask them to credit you some amount off the rent (e.g. $300 per month) in exchange for the hassle of say a 2-hour or 4-hour notice to show. Since you are living there, do not consent to lock boxes. It depends on your tolerance for trading off dollars for hassle and the owner’s willingness to negotiate this item, but take it under consideration.
Or if the whole process is too invasive, simply insist on your right to 24-hour notice and give your notice to vacate under the terms of your loan.
ParticipantYou are on a month-to-month lease. You have the right to end your lease with a month’s notice (sometimes less). You can exercise this right.
Or perhaps you want to stay or are asking about dealing with the owner marketing the property while you are still there.
I believe you have the right to 24-hour notice for showings. You do not have to leave the premises during the showings. See the reference belowfor more details …
If I were you, I would make lemonade out of the situation, even profit from it. Ask them to credit you some amount off the rent (e.g. $300 per month) in exchange for the hassle of say a 2-hour or 4-hour notice to show. Since you are living there, do not consent to lock boxes. It depends on your tolerance for trading off dollars for hassle and the owner’s willingness to negotiate this item, but take it under consideration.
Or if the whole process is too invasive, simply insist on your right to 24-hour notice and give your notice to vacate under the terms of your loan.
ParticipantYou are on a month-to-month lease. You have the right to end your lease with a month’s notice (sometimes less). You can exercise this right.
Or perhaps you want to stay or are asking about dealing with the owner marketing the property while you are still there.
I believe you have the right to 24-hour notice for showings. You do not have to leave the premises during the showings. See the reference belowfor more details …
If I were you, I would make lemonade out of the situation, even profit from it. Ask them to credit you some amount off the rent (e.g. $300 per month) in exchange for the hassle of say a 2-hour or 4-hour notice to show. Since you are living there, do not consent to lock boxes. It depends on your tolerance for trading off dollars for hassle and the owner’s willingness to negotiate this item, but take it under consideration.
Or if the whole process is too invasive, simply insist on your right to 24-hour notice and give your notice to vacate under the terms of your loan.
ParticipantYou are on a month-to-month lease. You have the right to end your lease with a month’s notice (sometimes less). You can exercise this right.
Or perhaps you want to stay or are asking about dealing with the owner marketing the property while you are still there.
I believe you have the right to 24-hour notice for showings. You do not have to leave the premises during the showings. See the reference belowfor more details …
If I were you, I would make lemonade out of the situation, even profit from it. Ask them to credit you some amount off the rent (e.g. $300 per month) in exchange for the hassle of say a 2-hour or 4-hour notice to show. Since you are living there, do not consent to lock boxes. It depends on your tolerance for trading off dollars for hassle and the owner’s willingness to negotiate this item, but take it under consideration.
Or if the whole process is too invasive, simply insist on your right to 24-hour notice and give your notice to vacate under the terms of your loan.
Participantsocratt, there are some cases where people are better off ultimately by building a business opportunity versus blindly investing in markets. The time to do this is in your late 20’s and early 30’s. Good luck on your endeavors.
For others out there … even if you liquidate IRAs (since they have no loan provisions) at least take the loan approach for the last 50k from your 401k.
In many cases you can actually end up with more cash avaliable from the 50% loan than a straight withdrawal due to taxes, phase outs, etc. Do the math.
Participantsocratt, there are some cases where people are better off ultimately by building a business opportunity versus blindly investing in markets. The time to do this is in your late 20’s and early 30’s. Good luck on your endeavors.
For others out there … even if you liquidate IRAs (since they have no loan provisions) at least take the loan approach for the last 50k from your 401k.
In many cases you can actually end up with more cash avaliable from the 50% loan than a straight withdrawal due to taxes, phase outs, etc. Do the math.
Participantsocratt, there are some cases where people are better off ultimately by building a business opportunity versus blindly investing in markets. The time to do this is in your late 20’s and early 30’s. Good luck on your endeavors.
For others out there … even if you liquidate IRAs (since they have no loan provisions) at least take the loan approach for the last 50k from your 401k.
In many cases you can actually end up with more cash avaliable from the 50% loan than a straight withdrawal due to taxes, phase outs, etc. Do the math.
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