[Fearful]

I wonder whether the banks’ SEC filings have that sort of data in them.

The original Bloomberg article citing ~17M houses vacant – well, I doubt there are all that many non bank owned vacant houses. Completed builder inventory is another possible contributing category.

Anecdotal reports that Indymac cannot hold inventory are meaningless. Judging by offered CD rates, Indymac is more desperate for cash than most. We should be grateful, though; banks like Indymac will help the market move to reality that much faster.

[Fearful]

I wonder whether the banks’ SEC filings have that sort of data in them.

The original Bloomberg article citing ~17M houses vacant – well, I doubt there are all that many non bank owned vacant houses. Completed builder inventory is another possible contributing category.

Anecdotal reports that Indymac cannot hold inventory are meaningless. Judging by offered CD rates, Indymac is more desperate for cash than most. We should be grateful, though; banks like Indymac will help the market move to reality that much faster.

[Fearful]

I wonder whether the banks’ SEC filings have that sort of data in them.

The original Bloomberg article citing ~17M houses vacant – well, I doubt there are all that many non bank owned vacant houses. Completed builder inventory is another possible contributing category.

Anecdotal reports that Indymac cannot hold inventory are meaningless. Judging by offered CD rates, Indymac is more desperate for cash than most. We should be grateful, though; banks like Indymac will help the market move to reality that much faster.

[Fearful]

Gee, I don’t think it’s a drag at all. $1.5M, that is a whopping 25% haircut, no? In fact, I think it is fantastic that people are auctioning houses. These are sellers that are facing reality. I sold my house in San Jose in the same manner, pricing it about 5% below expected selling price and taking what I could get. Sales like these are what move the market, not stagnant, unrealistic listings.

Still, I know I am outside the mainstream in my pessimism, but I believe further price declines will hit these guys like mule kicks to the gut.

[Fearful]

Gee, I don’t think it’s a drag at all. $1.5M, that is a whopping 25% haircut, no? In fact, I think it is fantastic that people are auctioning houses. These are sellers that are facing reality. I sold my house in San Jose in the same manner, pricing it about 5% below expected selling price and taking what I could get. Sales like these are what move the market, not stagnant, unrealistic listings.

Still, I know I am outside the mainstream in my pessimism, but I believe further price declines will hit these guys like mule kicks to the gut.

[Fearful]

Gee, I don’t think it’s a drag at all. $1.5M, that is a whopping 25% haircut, no? In fact, I think it is fantastic that people are auctioning houses. These are sellers that are facing reality. I sold my house in San Jose in the same manner, pricing it about 5% below expected selling price and taking what I could get. Sales like these are what move the market, not stagnant, unrealistic listings.

Still, I know I am outside the mainstream in my pessimism, but I believe further price declines will hit these guys like mule kicks to the gut.

[Fearful]

Gee, I don’t think it’s a drag at all. $1.5M, that is a whopping 25% haircut, no? In fact, I think it is fantastic that people are auctioning houses. These are sellers that are facing reality. I sold my house in San Jose in the same manner, pricing it about 5% below expected selling price and taking what I could get. Sales like these are what move the market, not stagnant, unrealistic listings.

Still, I know I am outside the mainstream in my pessimism, but I believe further price declines will hit these guys like mule kicks to the gut.

[Fearful]

Gee, I don’t think it’s a drag at all. $1.5M, that is a whopping 25% haircut, no? In fact, I think it is fantastic that people are auctioning houses. These are sellers that are facing reality. I sold my house in San Jose in the same manner, pricing it about 5% below expected selling price and taking what I could get. Sales like these are what move the market, not stagnant, unrealistic listings.

Still, I know I am outside the mainstream in my pessimism, but I believe further price declines will hit these guys like mule kicks to the gut.

[Fearful]

Sorry bro, this thing is a long, long way from being over. We’re maybe in the second inning. No one really knows, and no one wants to come out and say how long it is going to be bad for, because no one wants to be guilty of creating a bad reality.

Not only is there massive excess inventory, people bought houses they cannot afford. And to top it off, people borrowed money against houses they could not afford, and went out and spent that money on Porsches and granite countertops and subzero fridges. The money is gone, all gone. Not quite true, of course; some people invested their refi and sale cash. But plenty of it went to fueling GDP growth – remember the endless marveling about the indefatigable U.S. consumer? That money came from somewhere: debt.

All that must be repaid, and all must be readjusted. The process will take a very long time.

[Fearful]

Sorry bro, this thing is a long, long way from being over. We’re maybe in the second inning. No one really knows, and no one wants to come out and say how long it is going to be bad for, because no one wants to be guilty of creating a bad reality.

Not only is there massive excess inventory, people bought houses they cannot afford. And to top it off, people borrowed money against houses they could not afford, and went out and spent that money on Porsches and granite countertops and subzero fridges. The money is gone, all gone. Not quite true, of course; some people invested their refi and sale cash. But plenty of it went to fueling GDP growth – remember the endless marveling about the indefatigable U.S. consumer? That money came from somewhere: debt.

All that must be repaid, and all must be readjusted. The process will take a very long time.

[Fearful]

Sorry bro, this thing is a long, long way from being over. We’re maybe in the second inning. No one really knows, and no one wants to come out and say how long it is going to be bad for, because no one wants to be guilty of creating a bad reality.

Not only is there massive excess inventory, people bought houses they cannot afford. And to top it off, people borrowed money against houses they could not afford, and went out and spent that money on Porsches and granite countertops and subzero fridges. The money is gone, all gone. Not quite true, of course; some people invested their refi and sale cash. But plenty of it went to fueling GDP growth – remember the endless marveling about the indefatigable U.S. consumer? That money came from somewhere: debt.

All that must be repaid, and all must be readjusted. The process will take a very long time.

[Fearful]

Sorry bro, this thing is a long, long way from being over. We’re maybe in the second inning. No one really knows, and no one wants to come out and say how long it is going to be bad for, because no one wants to be guilty of creating a bad reality.

Not only is there massive excess inventory, people bought houses they cannot afford. And to top it off, people borrowed money against houses they could not afford, and went out and spent that money on Porsches and granite countertops and subzero fridges. The money is gone, all gone. Not quite true, of course; some people invested their refi and sale cash. But plenty of it went to fueling GDP growth – remember the endless marveling about the indefatigable U.S. consumer? That money came from somewhere: debt.

All that must be repaid, and all must be readjusted. The process will take a very long time.

[Fearful]

Sorry bro, this thing is a long, long way from being over. We’re maybe in the second inning. No one really knows, and no one wants to come out and say how long it is going to be bad for, because no one wants to be guilty of creating a bad reality.

Not only is there massive excess inventory, people bought houses they cannot afford. And to top it off, people borrowed money against houses they could not afford, and went out and spent that money on Porsches and granite countertops and subzero fridges. The money is gone, all gone. Not quite true, of course; some people invested their refi and sale cash. But plenty of it went to fueling GDP growth – remember the endless marveling about the indefatigable U.S. consumer? That money came from somewhere: debt.

All that must be repaid, and all must be readjusted. The process will take a very long time.

[Fearful]

It’s pretty easy to forecast 2012: seven years up, seven years down.

But as also pointed out, there is a top, then a couple of years of steep decline, then gentle leveling out. That is assuming it is a normal shakeout like early 90’s.

If banks get serious about unloading foreclosures – that is, get desperate to shore up balance sheets, and sell before further declines – the decline could be really steep.

There could be miracles, too.

[Fearful]

It’s pretty easy to forecast 2012: seven years up, seven years down.

But as also pointed out, there is a top, then a couple of years of steep decline, then gentle leveling out. That is assuming it is a normal shakeout like early 90’s.

If banks get serious about unloading foreclosures – that is, get desperate to shore up balance sheets, and sell before further declines – the decline could be really steep.

There could be miracles, too.

[Author]

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