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equalizer
ParticipantPS
I have no qualms about your 37% figure. We may have to lower it a tad to account for the helicopter Ben who is going to cut rates. To counter the ARMS reset we have to examine population density. We now have high rise apt and condos that didnt exist during last downturn, 15+ stories in UTC and off the 15 (Clairemeont area).
If you’ve been to New York, San Francisco, Singapore you know that single family house is a pure luxury reserved for very wealthy. Thats why newer single family houses may go down 20-30%, while condos may fall 30-45%.ParticipantThe dollar crash crowd has been wrong for so long that I doubt it will crash. The Chinese cant afford for the dollar to crash and cause their stores(walmart) to lose customers. The Chinese and Japanese will protect the dollar.
ParticipantPS
the Fleck is great as is Barry Ritholtz and Bill Gross.
They are looking for Fed to stop in Aug and cut soon after.
I tend to agree. I have been short the 10 year bond for 4 years now through Ultra mutual fund. Disaster. I’m down like 10% even though 10 year went from 4.1 to 5. Should have got ought last month. Talk about imperfect index! Must use CME and CBOE for true hedges. Since bond traders are taking down yield and we are inverting, recession may be coming even with true cost of living rising fast. Thus, fed has to cut, but it wont save RE from a good correction. But it may prevent a bigger loss.Participantcarlisle
At next meetup I’ll get you a cold drink. I’m so glad I have AC, set at 81 with ceiling fan and its great.
ParticipantHe says that give talks to San Diego ass of realtors.
So of course he has to lie to us. One weekend we need to get everyone here to call him with a story about our friend/coworker who is down 50-100K from last year. What is the pig going to oink?ParticipantSD Realtor
Are you sure you a realtor? You make way too much sense!
Shea should have been elected and fixed the mess. But we got another bozo who is pushing for a library downtown that is completely useless except for his vanity. (name on plaque, etc) He should be pushing for more convention centers. Friends went to comic/con last week and waited in 99 degree heat for 4 hours before leaving. Heard that hour later the Fire Marhall shut down the line because max cap exceeded!!! Only in this city!ParticipantCarlisle
Enjoy your posts!!First draft:
You family income puts you more than two standard deviation from the median, over 95% confidence ratio. [hopefully you have been there too, SDREALTOR!] So how exactly would your situation have any relevance to even San Diego avg?Upon further reflection, I mellowed out.
Everyone on television (CNBC, most of Bloomberg) is an elite class that cant relate to the working class. Therefore, they ALWAYS state they we need a tax cut, etc. They are looking out for their self-interest. Of course a dividend cut is good for them, but how is it going to help average joe with credit card debt who is not exactly awash in cash to buy DOW, PFE, etc.
If someone has time (ie, no kids) can they post simple link to actual CPI percentages. Like Carlisle implied, the health care percentage in CPI must be ridiculously understated. The avg inflation in health care in CA is running over 10% for last 5 years straight for large employers. The Fed health plan (biggest in country?), FEHB, has seen premiums rise about 17%, 14, 11, 10, 9 for last 5 years. Check OPM website if you dont belive me.
Nothing to do with malpractice insurance, since CA has 250k cap on malpractice. More likely has to do with illegals and earthquake retrofit reqmt.ParticipantHi Daniel
Yes you have done some research, but the CPI has been modified many times in the last 20 years, usually to lower the count. AND yes, its very convenient for GOV for the number to be low. I’m asked PS several times to tone done her rhertoric, but this time her tone is too mellow for me!! And I am not a wacko, am a subscriber to WSJ, Barrons, Businessweek, Newsweek, etc.
PLEASE see
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2006/07/and_so_it_begin.html#comments(Barry Ritholtz’s great blog. He is just spot on, has one of the BEST economic blogs in the country. And he’s a big Steely Dan fan. Anyone who likes Steely Dan is a genius in my book)
to see why we are so ANGRY. Not only is the CPI adjusted every so often to reduce the number, now economists, stock ANALysts want to completely ignore it!!!
ParticipantHi PerryChase and Daniel
To access the county accessors web site for home sales go to
http://www.sdarcc.com/arcc/services/propsales_search.aspxput in a number in first box and street in second box and submit query.
The data is probably 3 months old. Of course we cant determine options or incentives. But we know last year there were few incentives.
ParticipantOh, hurt me!
down anywhere from 60k+24k(4%)at 600K sale (84K)
or up to 100K +24K at 550K sale (124K). (its 4 bedroom, not 3 like builders listing)Alan Gin and John Karawhocareswoll of DataQrcook(trademark of the Equalizer):
I listened to you guys saying that no recession, no loss in real estate. Real estate is up 1% YOY, but I’m sitting on
on an 80-120K loss. Can you recommend a good bankruptcy attorney or better yet, will you buy my house at my cost since no loss in equity is possible?Sincerely
F***d borrowerPS
Powayseller is not the only one who can whip em…Parcel Number: 305 190 14 34
Property Location: 06132 MYSTRA PT
Purchase Price: $662,383
Living Area: 1,572
No. Bedrooms: 4
No. Bathrooms: 2
Document Number: 1102335
Document Date: 12/23/2005ParticipantDarn
I dont know how I missed the notice. I was just thinking about a meetup when I was posting a bunch yesterday. Although I would have been late since my boy didnt take his nap until nearly 4! Next time can we keep a sticky on the top right for meetup time?
Later
ParticipantJosh
What happended to Gateway? Ted had a house on Mt. Soledad, so thats really why they moved to UTC. Too expensice, so they moved to Poway. Then, things didnt work out and they were bought out by Emachines and move to Orange county.
Participantrankandfile
You havent read enough of my posts to get my sarcasm [zero rate,etc]. You are correct that there is no reason for a house to double in last 4 years with wages up only a few % a year, actually below inflation. Its all because of the ARMs. Dont get me started on health insurance going up 10-15% annually for 5 F’in years.No inflation here, as we watch Mr T wring the necks of NAR and Congress and Fed for LYING. [damn russians must be hacking my computer again]
SD wages are ridiculously low, about the same as most other cities that have a much lower cost of living. The UT has had articles in the last few years about bus drivers and other lower income people moving to vegas. Why are lower income people still living here and renting at ridiculously high prices? Everyone wants to live here?!? OK, no one wants to get kicked out of towm, esp if they grow up here, even if it would be better for their family. If we didnt purchase our first condo (later to a house) in 99, I know I would have been extremely sad (understatement of the year) and would have seriously thought about leaving myself. If one had the misfortune of graduating from college in last 5 years even with a good job one is totally hosed and cant afford jack. All because one is 5-7 years too young!! It would take 20 years of wages to save up the 250K the median went up in last 5+ years.
There, I think that neatly summarizes your frustration. Shouting is not going to help you get your point across. Your posts are generally great. But us bubbleheads have been so wrong for 4 years, that we have to stick to actual facts instead of rhetoric. That’s why I keep asking PS to tone it down. She takes good data and then extraplates it to the point that she is like the NAR in reverse.
ParticipantPS
You really have to cool the rhetoric. Even if know 50-80% drop were going to happen, NO ONE would believe you! So stop the wild exaggerations because they will just turn off most people because it is too extreme.The NAR Survey is a not too subtle threat to Fed that Congress will be bullied to lean on Fed to CUT rates, thats right cut rates, not just leave them alone. As PS as stated the PCE is lower than CPI because it has a lower weight on housing. Most of the economists on WSJ panel excuse the CPI figures by flippantly exclaiming that rents are causing most of the increase and that rents don’t matter since housing prices are coming down!! Look for these SLIMEBALLS to lobby replacing the rent with NAR home prices in the CPI. That way, CPI will be go down and we can get a rate cut. Feds will be happy since it means less money on COLA for SS,etc., NAR will be happy that housing stops dropping hard and ANALysts will be happy that stocks will stop their nosedive. As a homeowner and stockholder, I would be HAPPY to see ZERO percent rate like in Japan!! Then we could see Dow 32K,etc. [we can dream]
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