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SDR – I may seem to do what you do, but based on what you have told us, I don’t believe I do.

I observe, but I rarely give advice based on my observations nor do I predict markets. Again, I believe prediction in dynamic markets such as real estate or stocks is pure folly.

If someone asks me for advice, I offer up what data I have and do my best to keep my opinion out of the discussion so that they can draw their own conclusions, which serves two purposes: One, I get to see what they think and Two, I don’t have the potential to harm them by giving them advice that may prove to be totally wrong. In my view, if I give you bad advice and you act on it and you get hurt, I am responsible for putting you in a damaged state (and you are responsible for damaging yourself).

I also share with others what I am doing (at this point in time, nothing, just observing) and allow them to query me on my action (or lack thereof), but I never recommend that they do what I am doing (or not doing), regardless of the outcomes I produce.

I guess I am forever living life in the question, instead of the answer, thereby constantly in a dance to reduce my risk of an unintended outcome, regardless of what I am doing. So, back to my original inquiry:

I am specifically looking for where you have concluded the market will be in six months, that being mid-December of 2006, and what you plan on doing in anticipation of that point in time, at this point in time. That’s all.

I’m not asking for what you may advise me to do or how you do it, I simply want to know what you are doing / going to do, based on your analysis and subsequent prediction, which I am looking very much forward to reading. Thanks again…

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Die before you die? Please clarify…

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Thank you. I happen to be one of your silent peers who does not make predictions and does prefer the safety of working in the here and now.

I have held a brokers license (albeit I have worked in commercial real estate, not home sales per se) for 30 years and learned early on that acting on my (or others) prognostications was folly and oftentimes cost me money.

So now, I simply do my best to identify trends and then “ride the horse in the direction that it’s going.” That particular philosophy has earned me millions over the last two decades and continues to serve me well in this particular market (in the residential as well as commercial arenas).

However, you have such confidence in your ability to fortell the future for your clients, I would like to know what your prediction is for the status of the San Diego residential real estate market six months from now and more importantly, what action (or non-action) you intend to take based on your current prognostications.

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Priceless two cents. Thanks.

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Whoa, wait.

You have “…accurately predicted just about every step the market has taken over the last four years, six months before it happened”?

PLEASE tell me exactly what you mean by that.

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Ditto. See the attorney FIRST.

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Best advice – See the lawyer first. $ 200 is a small price to pay to find out what your rights are.

My gut tells me, regardless of what the PM says, they are liable in some capacity. Just because they didn’t know the situation doesn’t mean they shouldn’t have known. PM’s are required to be licensed real estate agents (unless they are the property owner themselves) and as such, they fall under the laws regarding real estate transactions.

The owner of the property sounds like he committed fraud in not disclosing the status of the property or his financial situation to you or his PM. He may be liable for your costs of moving as well as other damages, including legal fees.

This oftentimes is a common scam: The owner goes into foreclosure for six months or so and continues to collect rent, knowing all the while the property is going back to the bank. Take six properties and multiply that by six months rent and you have three years of income without a dime invested. A tidy sum for a scumbag.

I would not pay another cent in rent until I talked with the attorney. I would also talk to the bank to see if there is something you could work out on the rent while the property is being processed through foreclosure. Maybe negotiate a new lease with the same term as your current one. Banks don’t like being property managers but it will defray some of their costs if you can cut a new deal with them.

[docteur]

Powayseller – What is there to protect? Some would say “Your good name.”

People like to be anonymous to protect their positions. If you really want to experience the true essence of a person, watch what they say or do (or don’t say or do) when they believe they can’t be held accountable for their actions (or non-actions).

This forum is particularly revealing of its participants characters because “Nothing is more revealing about a person than their anonymity”. Being invisible tells us volumes about the phantom in diguise.

Becaue when someone believes they are safe from reprisal (or even praise), when they believe they are essentially invisible, they will let their true selves out. They will act in ways and say and do things that they wouldn’t say or do under “normal” circumstances.

And knowing a person’s name, seeing a picture of them or even meeting them in the flesh, doesn’t necessarily mean that a person is no longer “anonymous”…they can still hide out.

For to truly reveal ones self, you need to take total responsibility for who you are, and that includes communicating responsibly by owning the response that you get, regardless of what you think you intended to say.

Then and only then will you lose your anonymity and those receiving your communications will come to truly know you and you will then be authentic in your interactions with others. Nothing will be hidden, all will be revealed.

“The meaning of the communication is the response that you get.” In other words, how another responds to what you have said (or not said), reveals your true intent in that particular communication.

Thanks for having the courage to reveal your name. I am glad that you feel free in doing that, yet until you are not, you will always be powayseller to me…and “saying who you are” is revealed far more to me in the words that you write and in the actions that you take, than in the name by which you are called.

By reading your posts, which are honest, straightforward and candid, I already “know who you are”… someone I am honored to be acquainted with and someone who deserves my respect for her willingness and courage to share herself by participating in this forum. You consistently reveal who you are everytime you post and I get that you care deeply about everyone on this forum.

By being willing to participate in this forum, all of us add value to these discussions and we all deserve to be treated with dignity and respect in our communications with one another. Who we are (individually and collectively) is clearly revealed in our responses to one another and more importantly, by the responses we receive from one another.

Remember: “Integrity is what you do when no one is looking.”

[docteur]

I have to agree with Chris on this trade in LEND but for different reasons. I traded options and puts for years using technicals and did quite well at it but as the market got more and more saturated with institutional players, I started to lose my simplistic edge and just stopped trading altogether.

I just looked at LEND and my charts tell me that this stock is heavily oversold and possibly due for a rally soon (on a daily chart) but may continue it’s slide in the long run(on a weekly chart). When I was trading and two different time frames conflicted, I didn’t take the trade.

Secondly, regardless of your experience level, I would always recommend going short using puts as opposed to shorting (selling borrowed stock).

Puts limit your downside (loss) to the amount of your investment, increase your upside (gain) through the use of leverage and you never have to worry about getting caught in a short squeeze (which theoretically, could increase your loss infinitely).

“A stock can only fall to zero but can rise forever.”

Lastly, anyone trading the markets (long or short) should use proper risk management and especially when shorting, make sure you have stops in place and know your exit strategies (profitable or not) well in advance.

From an old trader’s perspective, shorting is a lot more scary than going long. Longs can only lose the value of their investment (if the stock goes to zero) but short sellers have unlimited exposure if the stock continues to rise against their position.

So, if you really believe a stock is going to tank within a reasonable time frame, why not use puts?

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Hi Powayseller – Thank you for your kind words. And special thanks for your boundless energy in digging up new data to share. I really enjoy reading all your posts. And yes, I did read your most gracious comments regarding my son. I sincerely appreciate your support in my realization of that dream. Lastly, I want to acknowledge you for your unwavering committment to your children. I believe the single most important thing a parent can do is be there for their children. When we put the child first, all will be right with the world.

[docteur]

lostkitty –

Namaste.

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Please be clear I am not talking “fault” or blame here. Just total responsibility. If I get in a car wreck I am totally responsible. Whose fault it is will be determined by the courts or my insurance company.

And yes, if I get creamed by a meteorite (that example made me laugh out loud — see it’s already working, we are lightening up here or maybe I should say lighting up), I would be responsible for that event. I’d say I did that.

Taking responsibility has nothing to do with the probability of a certain event taking place. I can guarantee that if I am there, it will happen to me and I will be responsible because I am the one who put myself in that space to make that particular event occur.

Believing is seeing. Yes, belief has power to create physical reality. I have done it many, many times in my life. My favorite “mini-magic” is to create a vacant parking space right up front at a busy event. My wife can’t believe how I can do that on a consistent basis. I believe it will happen, that is my expectation and so it goes.

And, like Little Big Man said “Sometimes the magic works, and sometimes it doesn’t.” So, sometimes I have to park way in the back. And that’s OK too because I like to walk. So, whatever shows up, I’ll own it.

Lastly, no belief makes anyone right or wrong. Some beliefs are just more powerful than others, depending on what you want to create in your life.

My motto is “Whatever works for you, is what you should do.” But watch carefully what you believe because to be human is to have the power of creation and you will manifest that belief in your life, sooner or later.

Conversely, if you ever want to know what your beliefs and intentions are in life, just look at the results you produce. They will tell you right away what your inner most beliefs are.

So, if I believe I create everything in my universe and am responsible for everything that shows up in my life (no exceptions, not even for meteorites), then I believe I am pretty darned powerful. In the deepest sense, that is a good and most graceful place to be and death (our biggest fear) has no power over us because we believe that we have the power to create the start of our life and the end of it to.

Remember, regardless of the belief, the ultimate window to a person’s soul is to look at the results they produce in their lives. None are better or worse than others, only different and they in turn produce happiness or suffering.

Finally, I have one last belief I want to share with you: Music is the language of God and there is no sweeter music than the sound of laughter.

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Thanks Bugs. That’s exactly what I was looking for. Looks to me like we’re close. Do you know if that included condo conversions?

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Did I say it would keep rising? Or is that a general comment not directed at anyone in particular?

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When things get really bad, trucks are in high demand because of their utility (they can haul stuff, like to swap meets). Boats in bad times…not in demand, unless you are in the business of transporting contraband…

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