[docteur]

Thanks for clarifying that.

I have “flipped” properties successfully (never homes though, always land or commercial pieces that were obviously undervalued due to economic mismanagement) but was always prepared to hold the property and operate it profitably if I couldn’t realize my intended profit.

I would never take on a deal entertaining the notion that I might lose money with it, by either selling at a loss or operating it with negative cash flow. The “flip mentality” that surfaced in this last run-up of residential real estate values was very dangerous to the novice real estate “investor” (almost everyone in the market recently), if you can even use that word with a house flipper.

I am simply amazed at how cavalier some people are thinking they can get rich quick, especially in a market that is obviously topping or at best slowing considerably. I guess it’s the greater fool theory gone awry.

Loss is always a consequence of greed. And in real estate, as with any investment, good planning (always with a fall back position) along with precise timing is everything.

[docteur]

Error.

[docteur]

NCJ – Thnaks for your responses.

Please support your statements with data and list it with your post.

I am not an active realtor and use a title service for information. I could find nothing on that address that supports your statement that “La Costa Greens is getting crushed.”

I would really appreciate it if all of us could leave the emotion out of these discussions and simply present our findings. Then each and everyone of us can draw our own conclusions based on what is going on as it pertains to our own particular set of circumstance and locale.

Let’s stop this incessant editorializing and just present the facts. Like Rich states: “In God we Trust. Everyone Else Bring Data.” And I might add, bring enough of it to present a convincing argument that supports your position on any given issue. One or two instances of something happening (or worse, possibly going to happen) does not make it so.

Blanket statements (BS) with no backup are just that, BS.

[docteur]

SDR – I listed 5492 Valerio Trail in my previous post but I am showing that it sold for $ 1,815,000 and that the top sale to date in Santa Barbara was at 5488 Valerio Trail (also listed in my post) at $ 1,825,000.

So, I think that’s where the confusion comes in. Either my data or yours is flawed.

And no, I am not worried at all. I paid off my house and intend on staying here for a long time (or until I find a home on the bay in Point Loma – I love to surf and sail and that’s where I grew up, so I have a lot of friends and family still living in that area).

So far, all I see is a slowing down of sales and prices probably reaching a peak at Santa Barbara. I think a lot of these folks will simply pull their homes off the market if they don’t get their prices (at least the people I know whose homes are for sale will do that).

But only time will tell…

Thanks.

[docteur]

SDR – Thanks for your information. However, I did some research on my own and got a little bit different picture than you did.

I found a total of eight homes for sale: two in Vista Santa Barbara (non-gated, smaller lots) and six in Santa Barbara (gated, larger lots). Below I have listed the asking prices as well as the most recent purchase price and date.

In addition, the home you referred to that sold in Santa Barbara was at 5448 Valerio Trial and it sold for $ 1.8250 recently and as far as I know it is not on the market. The listing you refer to at $ 1.929 is at a different address.

According to my research no one has sold for a loss nor have they listed at a price which would produce a loss. I know most of the sellers (or the agents) on the homes listed for sale in Santa Barbara and to the best of my knowledge, none of them are desperate (but they are trying to push the envelope on pricing in some cases), so I don’t see any sales that could produce a loss, except for possibly the first one listed below (assuming they got desperate, which they are not).

For Sale 05/17/09 — Purchase Price/ Date

5492 VT $ 1.9290 — $ 1.8150 09/05
5472 VT $ 1.6950 — $ .8675 07/02
5487 VT $ 1.5490 — $ 1.0250 09/05
13430 EP $ 1.4500 — $ .7390 07/02
13466 EP $ 1.4950 — $ .7850 04/02
13423 MG $ 1.4990 — $ 1.1000 03/04

Another home on Valerio Trail at Santa Barbara recently sold and was listed value range pricing between $ 1.7490 and $ 1.9490 (I believe) and I think it was listed “Help U Sell” or something like that. It was at 5562 Valerio Trail and was purchased in 04/03 for a total of $ .9130 and rented for two years prior to sale. The owner put in a pool, upgraded landscaping and upgrades (new flooring and carpet) prior to sale to the tune of about $ 150,000.

Vista Santa Barbara had two listings as follows:

For Sale 05/17/09 — Purchase Price/ Date

13295 SP $ 1.6990 — $ .9205 07/04
13283 ESC $ 1.4990 — $ 1.0955 08/05

So again, I think predicting the way these sales might go is an interesting exercise but to gauge the market, we need to look at exactly what is happening right now and as I have stated before, I see no losses on purchase prices nor do I see any desperation.

Lastly, six homes in Santa Barbara for sale out of 109 = 5.5 % of the total housing stock there. Not a huge amount in my estimation.

VT= Valerio Trail
EP = El Presidio Trail
MG = Moreton Glen
SP = Sunset Point
ESC = Evening Sky Ct.

[docteur]

Perfect!

[docteur]

I am on the canyon and thanks. I have a beautiful view of open space, Fairbanks Ranch and Cielo (one of my other developments) to the north as well as all the twinkling ligts to the west and east.

We absolutely love it here. On summer evenings I sit out on our deck with my wife and son and watch the moon rise over the mountains to the northeast. I have seen the most spectacular moon rises of my life here.

Nothing like feeling a warm breezes of summer, sipping a smooth single malt scotch and enjoying a nice Honduran cigar as the light changes across the rolling hills in the distance. This home is the best investment I ever made. 🙂

[docteur]

I remember that sale and thinking they way overpaid at that point. However, one $ 70,000 loss and another possible sale still doesn’t make a trend.

Question: How do you determine what the transaction costs were/are on a sale? Don’t you need to see a closing statement? I have heard of some brokers in this area selling at reduced fees, which may put the net loss closer to zero, depending on how those costs are calculated.

Incidentally, there are two developments with Santa Barbara in the name in PHR/Carmel Valley: Vista Santa Barbara (non-gated) and Santa Barbara (gated). Same homes, same builders, two totally different neighborhoods.

Vista Santa Barbara in general has much smaller lots and not the quality of views that Santa Barbara has on its northern rim.

Lastly, the first sale was a job location and it sounds like the second one may be a special situation sale also. I will see what I can find out about that.

[docteur]

SDR – Have there actually been closings whereby buyers have sold their homes for $ 100,000 less than they paid a year ago and is it a cash/equity loss (as opposed to a 100% financed deal where they are letting the lender take the hit)?

And are these desperation sellers? What would motivate them to take a $ 100,000 loss? I find that incredible.

[docteur]

SDR – In what area of San Diego would that be occuring?

[docteur]

Solman – Thanks for the information. Your data supports what ZK responded with in his post. It will be interesting to see how Pardee does with that particular development.

[docteur]

ZK – Thanks for the information.

To the best of my knowledge Santa Barbara was the first development built by Pardee in Pacific Highlands Ranch.

If you look at a master plan of PHR, Santa Barbara is located within it.

[docteur]

SDR – Thanks for your response.

However, it’s not about the jokes. Clearly, you don’t get it.

It’s about keeping your word and honoring your agreements and not making excuses when you don’t. You blew off your transgression, because you decided it didn’t matter because you felt it was insignificant. To do that shows great disrespect.

This is about the context from which you operate, not the content of your life.

Asking me (and others) to honor a request that you are not willing to honor yourself shows a lack of integrity.

Consciously acknowleding that you were going to break your word by apologizing in advance, shows me that you don’t take your word seriously, and therefore are someone that I find unworthy of my trust.

I know you think that this is unimportant but it is exactly what keeps you stuck in your life. You change the rules when it suits you. The size (content) of the infraction is unimportant. The context is everything. Stealing trust a penny at a time is no different than robbing a bank full of millions.

I want you to know that I support you in being bigger than your considerations about this discussion. I respectully suggest that you start taking your word and your agreements seriously. Keep your word, no matter what and act as if your life depended on it. Because it does.

By keeping my word, I show respect for you. It means you can count on me to always be authentic in my dealing with you. That way you will know who I am and be clear on where I operate from in this life. Nothing will be hidden. If I do what I say, you will always know what to expect of me.

If I break my word, I will always be responsible and clean up my lack of integrity the moment that I recognize that I have not kept my word. I will never break my word consciously unless I receive your permission first to do so. Therefore, by doing that, it puts me back in integrity once again, revealing to you where I operate from in my life.

To that end, I want to acknowledge that I have been off topic during these last few posts and have broken my agreement/commitment to stick with real estate related information only.

I agree to recreate that agreement right now, regardless of whether you are willing to make that same commitment. I think it was a sound suggestion which will further the purpose of this form and weed out those discussions that don’t keep us on purpose. Therefore, you have my word that from this point forward I will only discuss real estate related issues on this forum.

[docteur]

Solman – I live in a gated community in Carmel Valley in Pacific Highlands Ranch in a home recently appraised at $ 2 Million. I bought my house late in 2003 for just over $ 1 Million.

My HOA fee is less than $ 100 per month and my MR is $ 245 per month, a far cry from the $ 600 per month you state exists in PHR for their more expensive homes.

I am curious as to where you are getting your figures (what development provided that data?) Please enlighten me as to where HOA and MR fees combined are $ 600 per month in Pacific Highlands Ranch.

[docteur]

SDR –

Your response to my request to recreate our agreement is very telling and speaks volumes as to your character.

Your words reveal to me exactly who you are and where you operate from in your life.

Time to move on? It is now…

[Author]

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