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Diego Mamani
ParticipantPerry, it’s true that people make predictions all the time. I worked as an economist and a statistician in different lives, so I can easily smell a rat when people start throwing around exact dates or numbers. I guess it’s just human nature to attach a number to our beliefs, so that we sound as if we know what we’re talking about. But someone with data experience will just roll his eyes and laugh later.
Your comment about rejecting bad news has more to do with political issues. I’m not saying that the RE debacle doesn’t have political implications!
ParticipantPerry, it’s true that people make predictions all the time. I worked as an economist and a statistician in different lives, so I can easily smell a rat when people start throwing around exact dates or numbers. I guess it’s just human nature to attach a number to our beliefs, so that we sound as if we know what we’re talking about. But someone with data experience will just roll his eyes and laugh later.
Your comment about rejecting bad news has more to do with political issues. I’m not saying that the RE debacle doesn’t have political implications!
August 16, 2007 at 5:04 PM in reply to: Can we have bigger font on the site ? Or maybe add the option to adjust the font ? #76681ParticipantI agree with Perry. Colors, fonts, etc., are all very sober and tasteful. I wouldn’t read this blog if it had the loud colors or fonts you see in so many sites.
August 16, 2007 at 5:04 PM in reply to: Can we have bigger font on the site ? Or maybe add the option to adjust the font ? #76801ParticipantI agree with Perry. Colors, fonts, etc., are all very sober and tasteful. I wouldn’t read this blog if it had the loud colors or fonts you see in so many sites.
August 16, 2007 at 5:04 PM in reply to: Can we have bigger font on the site ? Or maybe add the option to adjust the font ? #76830ParticipantI agree with Perry. Colors, fonts, etc., are all very sober and tasteful. I wouldn’t read this blog if it had the loud colors or fonts you see in so many sites.
ParticipantIn think that Alex makes a good point regarding predictions: It is really silly to say that the market will bottom in 2012 – why not 2011? Or 2014? No one really knows. And the same is true for the % drop in inflation-adjusted prices from peak to trough: will it be 20% or 60%? How fast will prices drop over this period? Most of it up front in 2007-08? Or evenly over the long downturn period?
We know where the market is headed, but we just don’t know the details regarding years or exact % price drops.
That said, however, I think that Alex’s true colors come through when he made this fallacious argument that we often hear from RE industry shills:
What is someone with the money and large family going to do? Rent for 5 years until 2012? Hell no. people need to live life today and not wait for something they have no idea will ever happen.
Once I read that, I stopped taking him seriously.
ParticipantIn think that Alex makes a good point regarding predictions: It is really silly to say that the market will bottom in 2012 – why not 2011? Or 2014? No one really knows. And the same is true for the % drop in inflation-adjusted prices from peak to trough: will it be 20% or 60%? How fast will prices drop over this period? Most of it up front in 2007-08? Or evenly over the long downturn period?
We know where the market is headed, but we just don’t know the details regarding years or exact % price drops.
That said, however, I think that Alex’s true colors come through when he made this fallacious argument that we often hear from RE industry shills:
What is someone with the money and large family going to do? Rent for 5 years until 2012? Hell no. people need to live life today and not wait for something they have no idea will ever happen.
Once I read that, I stopped taking him seriously.
ParticipantIn think that Alex makes a good point regarding predictions: It is really silly to say that the market will bottom in 2012 – why not 2011? Or 2014? No one really knows. And the same is true for the % drop in inflation-adjusted prices from peak to trough: will it be 20% or 60%? How fast will prices drop over this period? Most of it up front in 2007-08? Or evenly over the long downturn period?
We know where the market is headed, but we just don’t know the details regarding years or exact % price drops.
That said, however, I think that Alex’s true colors come through when he made this fallacious argument that we often hear from RE industry shills:
What is someone with the money and large family going to do? Rent for 5 years until 2012? Hell no. people need to live life today and not wait for something they have no idea will ever happen.
Once I read that, I stopped taking him seriously.
ParticipantI think that if you are in Tax free Muni's you should be OK, Anyone know more ???
As long as the municipalities paying the interest are solvent, yes.
ParticipantI think that if you are in Tax free Muni's you should be OK, Anyone know more ???
As long as the municipalities paying the interest are solvent, yes.
ParticipantI think that if you are in Tax free Muni's you should be OK, Anyone know more ???
As long as the municipalities paying the interest are solvent, yes.
Participant…a money market fund for "the big boys," e.g. commodities traders and funds, and not for Joe Zinfandel.
Joe Z.
LOLROTFSTC!
Participant…a money market fund for "the big boys," e.g. commodities traders and funds, and not for Joe Zinfandel.
Joe Z.
LOLROTFSTC!
Participant…a money market fund for "the big boys," e.g. commodities traders and funds, and not for Joe Zinfandel.
Joe Z.
LOLROTFSTC!
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