[davelj]

I’m not short financials, nor long gold or commodities.

Here’s a couple of things I know, however:

1. Stocks are volatile.
2. This market, specifically, has “no memory” – that is, what happened yesterday is irrelevant. It’s all about what’s happening today. That’s not healthy long term.
3. It’s hard to believe that either the January or Bear Stearns bottoms were the last bottoms in this cycle seeing as we never even actually entered bear market territory (20% down from the peak) and we’re in the midst of the biggest credit crisis since the Great Depression. The average bear market decline is 30% from the prior peak.
4. Market action implies clearly that participants are STILL more worried about “missing the rally” than about protecting capital during an economic downturn.
5. Earnings estimates are still way too high for 2008. As we get deeper into the recession they’ll be scaled back significantly. Non-financial earnings fall by an average of 15%-20% during recessions. 2008 estimates still reflect 10%+ growth over 2007 (and extraordinarily high profit margins, which generally mean revert during recessions). Possible? Yes. Likely? Hardly.
6. This is one of those moments when bad news is deemed company specific (GE, Fed Ex, UPS, Seagate, AMD) but good news (Intel, IBM, Google) is deemed good for the whole planet. This reflects extreme bullishness.
7. Most of the biggest up days (in percentage terms) in the history of the stock market have been in the midst of bear market rallies that later failed.
8. See 1 again: Stocks are volatile.

I don’t know how low we’ll go (1000-1100 perhaps on the S&P?), but I think we’ll blow through the prior lows sometime during 2008. The current rally notwithstanding.

[davelj]

I’m not short financials, nor long gold or commodities.

Here’s a couple of things I know, however:

1. Stocks are volatile.
2. This market, specifically, has “no memory” – that is, what happened yesterday is irrelevant. It’s all about what’s happening today. That’s not healthy long term.
3. It’s hard to believe that either the January or Bear Stearns bottoms were the last bottoms in this cycle seeing as we never even actually entered bear market territory (20% down from the peak) and we’re in the midst of the biggest credit crisis since the Great Depression. The average bear market decline is 30% from the prior peak.
4. Market action implies clearly that participants are STILL more worried about “missing the rally” than about protecting capital during an economic downturn.
5. Earnings estimates are still way too high for 2008. As we get deeper into the recession they’ll be scaled back significantly. Non-financial earnings fall by an average of 15%-20% during recessions. 2008 estimates still reflect 10%+ growth over 2007 (and extraordinarily high profit margins, which generally mean revert during recessions). Possible? Yes. Likely? Hardly.
6. This is one of those moments when bad news is deemed company specific (GE, Fed Ex, UPS, Seagate, AMD) but good news (Intel, IBM, Google) is deemed good for the whole planet. This reflects extreme bullishness.
7. Most of the biggest up days (in percentage terms) in the history of the stock market have been in the midst of bear market rallies that later failed.
8. See 1 again: Stocks are volatile.

I don’t know how low we’ll go (1000-1100 perhaps on the S&P?), but I think we’ll blow through the prior lows sometime during 2008. The current rally notwithstanding.

[davelj]

I’m not short financials, nor long gold or commodities.

Here’s a couple of things I know, however:

1. Stocks are volatile.
2. This market, specifically, has “no memory” – that is, what happened yesterday is irrelevant. It’s all about what’s happening today. That’s not healthy long term.
3. It’s hard to believe that either the January or Bear Stearns bottoms were the last bottoms in this cycle seeing as we never even actually entered bear market territory (20% down from the peak) and we’re in the midst of the biggest credit crisis since the Great Depression. The average bear market decline is 30% from the prior peak.
4. Market action implies clearly that participants are STILL more worried about “missing the rally” than about protecting capital during an economic downturn.
5. Earnings estimates are still way too high for 2008. As we get deeper into the recession they’ll be scaled back significantly. Non-financial earnings fall by an average of 15%-20% during recessions. 2008 estimates still reflect 10%+ growth over 2007 (and extraordinarily high profit margins, which generally mean revert during recessions). Possible? Yes. Likely? Hardly.
6. This is one of those moments when bad news is deemed company specific (GE, Fed Ex, UPS, Seagate, AMD) but good news (Intel, IBM, Google) is deemed good for the whole planet. This reflects extreme bullishness.
7. Most of the biggest up days (in percentage terms) in the history of the stock market have been in the midst of bear market rallies that later failed.
8. See 1 again: Stocks are volatile.

I don’t know how low we’ll go (1000-1100 perhaps on the S&P?), but I think we’ll blow through the prior lows sometime during 2008. The current rally notwithstanding.

[davelj]

I’m not short financials, nor long gold or commodities.

Here’s a couple of things I know, however:

1. Stocks are volatile.
2. This market, specifically, has “no memory” – that is, what happened yesterday is irrelevant. It’s all about what’s happening today. That’s not healthy long term.
3. It’s hard to believe that either the January or Bear Stearns bottoms were the last bottoms in this cycle seeing as we never even actually entered bear market territory (20% down from the peak) and we’re in the midst of the biggest credit crisis since the Great Depression. The average bear market decline is 30% from the prior peak.
4. Market action implies clearly that participants are STILL more worried about “missing the rally” than about protecting capital during an economic downturn.
5. Earnings estimates are still way too high for 2008. As we get deeper into the recession they’ll be scaled back significantly. Non-financial earnings fall by an average of 15%-20% during recessions. 2008 estimates still reflect 10%+ growth over 2007 (and extraordinarily high profit margins, which generally mean revert during recessions). Possible? Yes. Likely? Hardly.
6. This is one of those moments when bad news is deemed company specific (GE, Fed Ex, UPS, Seagate, AMD) but good news (Intel, IBM, Google) is deemed good for the whole planet. This reflects extreme bullishness.
7. Most of the biggest up days (in percentage terms) in the history of the stock market have been in the midst of bear market rallies that later failed.
8. See 1 again: Stocks are volatile.

I don’t know how low we’ll go (1000-1100 perhaps on the S&P?), but I think we’ll blow through the prior lows sometime during 2008. The current rally notwithstanding.

[davelj]

Credit Unions tend to offer slightly lower rates on loans than banks because, unlike banks, they don’t pay corporate income taxes. One day large credit unions like San Diego County Credit Union will cease to exist. They should be paying taxes like everyone else. If their money is cheap, there’s no reason you shouldn’t avail yourself of it.

[davelj]

Credit Unions tend to offer slightly lower rates on loans than banks because, unlike banks, they don’t pay corporate income taxes. One day large credit unions like San Diego County Credit Union will cease to exist. They should be paying taxes like everyone else. If their money is cheap, there’s no reason you shouldn’t avail yourself of it.

[davelj]

Credit Unions tend to offer slightly lower rates on loans than banks because, unlike banks, they don’t pay corporate income taxes. One day large credit unions like San Diego County Credit Union will cease to exist. They should be paying taxes like everyone else. If their money is cheap, there’s no reason you shouldn’t avail yourself of it.

[davelj]

Credit Unions tend to offer slightly lower rates on loans than banks because, unlike banks, they don’t pay corporate income taxes. One day large credit unions like San Diego County Credit Union will cease to exist. They should be paying taxes like everyone else. If their money is cheap, there’s no reason you shouldn’t avail yourself of it.

[davelj]

Credit Unions tend to offer slightly lower rates on loans than banks because, unlike banks, they don’t pay corporate income taxes. One day large credit unions like San Diego County Credit Union will cease to exist. They should be paying taxes like everyone else. If their money is cheap, there’s no reason you shouldn’t avail yourself of it.

[davelj]

Marion:

…he liked dating women with luscious asses, which was part of his attraction to me.

The competition may be fierce, but I’m not even aware of the competition. And there is no arrogance in that viewpoint.

However, the younger guys continually seek me out… they want to know if they “can keep up”.

…thankfully I look a lot younger due in part to my ethnicity and my genes. I’m thankful for that. That’s another reason why I get approached from that group.

Ok… someone hasn’t been taking their meds. Professional help can’t be far behind. In the meantime, my Unintentional Hilarity Meter just broke.

Whoa Daddy. Just… Whoa. The hits just keep on coming.

[davelj]

Marion:

…he liked dating women with luscious asses, which was part of his attraction to me.

The competition may be fierce, but I’m not even aware of the competition. And there is no arrogance in that viewpoint.

However, the younger guys continually seek me out… they want to know if they “can keep up”.

…thankfully I look a lot younger due in part to my ethnicity and my genes. I’m thankful for that. That’s another reason why I get approached from that group.

Ok… someone hasn’t been taking their meds. Professional help can’t be far behind. In the meantime, my Unintentional Hilarity Meter just broke.

Whoa Daddy. Just… Whoa. The hits just keep on coming.

[davelj]

Marion:

…he liked dating women with luscious asses, which was part of his attraction to me.

The competition may be fierce, but I’m not even aware of the competition. And there is no arrogance in that viewpoint.

However, the younger guys continually seek me out… they want to know if they “can keep up”.

…thankfully I look a lot younger due in part to my ethnicity and my genes. I’m thankful for that. That’s another reason why I get approached from that group.

Ok… someone hasn’t been taking their meds. Professional help can’t be far behind. In the meantime, my Unintentional Hilarity Meter just broke.

Whoa Daddy. Just… Whoa. The hits just keep on coming.

[davelj]

Marion:

…he liked dating women with luscious asses, which was part of his attraction to me.

The competition may be fierce, but I’m not even aware of the competition. And there is no arrogance in that viewpoint.

However, the younger guys continually seek me out… they want to know if they “can keep up”.

…thankfully I look a lot younger due in part to my ethnicity and my genes. I’m thankful for that. That’s another reason why I get approached from that group.

Ok… someone hasn’t been taking their meds. Professional help can’t be far behind. In the meantime, my Unintentional Hilarity Meter just broke.

Whoa Daddy. Just… Whoa. The hits just keep on coming.

[davelj]

Marion:

…he liked dating women with luscious asses, which was part of his attraction to me.

The competition may be fierce, but I’m not even aware of the competition. And there is no arrogance in that viewpoint.

However, the younger guys continually seek me out… they want to know if they “can keep up”.

…thankfully I look a lot younger due in part to my ethnicity and my genes. I’m thankful for that. That’s another reason why I get approached from that group.

Ok… someone hasn’t been taking their meds. Professional help can’t be far behind. In the meantime, my Unintentional Hilarity Meter just broke.

Whoa Daddy. Just… Whoa. The hits just keep on coming.

[davelj]

Just an observation that’s related to this topic.

I have a friend who’s now 40-ish who lived in San Diego for about a decade. She was married, had a kid and got divorced when she was maybe 32. Two years ago she left San Diego and moved to Savannah, Georgia. She had reasons besides relationship (or lack thereof) issues for moving, but I’ll paraphrase her thoughts on dating in Southern California as a single mom in her late-30s, which she shared with me. For a little context, this woman is fairly attractive, takes care of herself and had invested in some surgical “enhancements.” She turned heads.

Anyhow, paraphrasing: “The problem with dating here [San Diego] is that most of the guys that I want to have a relationship with have too many options. For example, I really like [Name Withheld]. He’s 46 but he can date some hot 28-year old that doesn’t have a kid or a care in the world. So I have to compete with a lot of younger women with no kids AND all of the women who are in a similar situation to myself. My potential dating pool just gets older. [Name Withheld]’s dating pool just gets bigger because he can still date younger women if he wants to. It’s not fair.”

She was generalizing, of course. But there’s more than a grain of truth in her observation. Anyhow, she moved to Savannah, married a cop and I assume they’re both happy campers.

The point is that Southern California is a very difficult dating market, and particularly for women as they pass 40. The competition is fierce.

[Author]

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