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Daniel
ParticipantJosh,
I also take sdrealtor’s side on this. First off, most people at those price levels are not first-time buyers, so down payments are not necessarily a huge hurdle (think middle age professionals who have substantial equity in their present house). Getting rid of the present house may actually be more of an issue.
Second, I would think many prospective buyers waiting to take a 600K loan in the past few months have decided to wait for the new jumbo conforming limit to take effect. Why rush into a higher interest rate loan when you know chances are it will be half a percent to one percent lower in a few months? To be honest, I was surprised that there were ANY of these loans made at all in the past few months, once it became obvious the limit would be raised. So I think there will certainly be an immediate impact on the transaction volume in the 700K-1M market.
ParticipantJosh,
I also take sdrealtor’s side on this. First off, most people at those price levels are not first-time buyers, so down payments are not necessarily a huge hurdle (think middle age professionals who have substantial equity in their present house). Getting rid of the present house may actually be more of an issue.
Second, I would think many prospective buyers waiting to take a 600K loan in the past few months have decided to wait for the new jumbo conforming limit to take effect. Why rush into a higher interest rate loan when you know chances are it will be half a percent to one percent lower in a few months? To be honest, I was surprised that there were ANY of these loans made at all in the past few months, once it became obvious the limit would be raised. So I think there will certainly be an immediate impact on the transaction volume in the 700K-1M market.
ParticipantJosh,
I also take sdrealtor’s side on this. First off, most people at those price levels are not first-time buyers, so down payments are not necessarily a huge hurdle (think middle age professionals who have substantial equity in their present house). Getting rid of the present house may actually be more of an issue.
Second, I would think many prospective buyers waiting to take a 600K loan in the past few months have decided to wait for the new jumbo conforming limit to take effect. Why rush into a higher interest rate loan when you know chances are it will be half a percent to one percent lower in a few months? To be honest, I was surprised that there were ANY of these loans made at all in the past few months, once it became obvious the limit would be raised. So I think there will certainly be an immediate impact on the transaction volume in the 700K-1M market.
ParticipantVery nice link. That example is in perfect agreement with what I have witnessed in my neighborhood (see a few posts above). Precisely the same problem. Two houses that are identical, were valued nearly the same a year or two ago, and are apart by more than $200K now.
I offered an explanation for the discrepancy (maybe Zillow 2.0 gives too much weight to prices of nearby houses). That’s really the only way I can wrap my mind around this. Everything else (lot sizes, year built, etc) is the same and can’t account for the difference.
Yes, Zillow’s got a bit of a problem. To be fair to them, what they want to do (produce an accurate estimate on each and every house) is very hard work. Close to impossible. In contrast, the Case-Shiller algorithm is a piece of cake. They average over an entire metropolitan area, kinda hard to get that wrong.
ParticipantVery nice link. That example is in perfect agreement with what I have witnessed in my neighborhood (see a few posts above). Precisely the same problem. Two houses that are identical, were valued nearly the same a year or two ago, and are apart by more than $200K now.
I offered an explanation for the discrepancy (maybe Zillow 2.0 gives too much weight to prices of nearby houses). That’s really the only way I can wrap my mind around this. Everything else (lot sizes, year built, etc) is the same and can’t account for the difference.
Yes, Zillow’s got a bit of a problem. To be fair to them, what they want to do (produce an accurate estimate on each and every house) is very hard work. Close to impossible. In contrast, the Case-Shiller algorithm is a piece of cake. They average over an entire metropolitan area, kinda hard to get that wrong.
ParticipantVery nice link. That example is in perfect agreement with what I have witnessed in my neighborhood (see a few posts above). Precisely the same problem. Two houses that are identical, were valued nearly the same a year or two ago, and are apart by more than $200K now.
I offered an explanation for the discrepancy (maybe Zillow 2.0 gives too much weight to prices of nearby houses). That’s really the only way I can wrap my mind around this. Everything else (lot sizes, year built, etc) is the same and can’t account for the difference.
Yes, Zillow’s got a bit of a problem. To be fair to them, what they want to do (produce an accurate estimate on each and every house) is very hard work. Close to impossible. In contrast, the Case-Shiller algorithm is a piece of cake. They average over an entire metropolitan area, kinda hard to get that wrong.
ParticipantVery nice link. That example is in perfect agreement with what I have witnessed in my neighborhood (see a few posts above). Precisely the same problem. Two houses that are identical, were valued nearly the same a year or two ago, and are apart by more than $200K now.
I offered an explanation for the discrepancy (maybe Zillow 2.0 gives too much weight to prices of nearby houses). That’s really the only way I can wrap my mind around this. Everything else (lot sizes, year built, etc) is the same and can’t account for the difference.
Yes, Zillow’s got a bit of a problem. To be fair to them, what they want to do (produce an accurate estimate on each and every house) is very hard work. Close to impossible. In contrast, the Case-Shiller algorithm is a piece of cake. They average over an entire metropolitan area, kinda hard to get that wrong.
ParticipantVery nice link. That example is in perfect agreement with what I have witnessed in my neighborhood (see a few posts above). Precisely the same problem. Two houses that are identical, were valued nearly the same a year or two ago, and are apart by more than $200K now.
I offered an explanation for the discrepancy (maybe Zillow 2.0 gives too much weight to prices of nearby houses). That’s really the only way I can wrap my mind around this. Everything else (lot sizes, year built, etc) is the same and can’t account for the difference.
Yes, Zillow’s got a bit of a problem. To be fair to them, what they want to do (produce an accurate estimate on each and every house) is very hard work. Close to impossible. In contrast, the Case-Shiller algorithm is a piece of cake. They average over an entire metropolitan area, kinda hard to get that wrong.
Participant“I must be missing something about CV.”
It’s simple, really: very, very close to major employment centers. Several business parks, from Del Mar Heights down on El Camino Real and High Bluff, all the way to Carmel Mountain Road south of 56, then the huge health care and biotech hub on Torrey Pines, then the huge computer and communication hub around Sorrento Valley. Many good paying jobs up there, and CV is the most convenient nearby bedroom community for all of them (quiet, safe, good schools, etc). There’s really nothing more than that.
Participant“I must be missing something about CV.”
It’s simple, really: very, very close to major employment centers. Several business parks, from Del Mar Heights down on El Camino Real and High Bluff, all the way to Carmel Mountain Road south of 56, then the huge health care and biotech hub on Torrey Pines, then the huge computer and communication hub around Sorrento Valley. Many good paying jobs up there, and CV is the most convenient nearby bedroom community for all of them (quiet, safe, good schools, etc). There’s really nothing more than that.
Participant“I must be missing something about CV.”
It’s simple, really: very, very close to major employment centers. Several business parks, from Del Mar Heights down on El Camino Real and High Bluff, all the way to Carmel Mountain Road south of 56, then the huge health care and biotech hub on Torrey Pines, then the huge computer and communication hub around Sorrento Valley. Many good paying jobs up there, and CV is the most convenient nearby bedroom community for all of them (quiet, safe, good schools, etc). There’s really nothing more than that.
Participant“I must be missing something about CV.”
It’s simple, really: very, very close to major employment centers. Several business parks, from Del Mar Heights down on El Camino Real and High Bluff, all the way to Carmel Mountain Road south of 56, then the huge health care and biotech hub on Torrey Pines, then the huge computer and communication hub around Sorrento Valley. Many good paying jobs up there, and CV is the most convenient nearby bedroom community for all of them (quiet, safe, good schools, etc). There’s really nothing more than that.
Participant“I must be missing something about CV.”
It’s simple, really: very, very close to major employment centers. Several business parks, from Del Mar Heights down on El Camino Real and High Bluff, all the way to Carmel Mountain Road south of 56, then the huge health care and biotech hub on Torrey Pines, then the huge computer and communication hub around Sorrento Valley. Many good paying jobs up there, and CV is the most convenient nearby bedroom community for all of them (quiet, safe, good schools, etc). There’s really nothing more than that.
Participant“The Fed’s recent activities are blatant examples of the PPT in action.”
Absolutely. Whether we agree with those actions or not, that’s another story. But this IS it. What we just saw. Not buying stocks to support the market, this idea is plain silly.
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