[cyphire]

Alex_angel…. I not sure that your reality fits where the market is going.

We bought a house in Carmel Valley in 2001 for 810K. Sold it in 2004 for 1.4M. My neighbors paid 300K in 1992. My broker told me to get a 1.16% mortgage floating with the LIBOR. I got a 10 year arm at about 5% instead. When I bought my last house got a 1.5M mortgage at 5.5% for 10 years (interest only). Now a 30 year is 7.5% or more (if you can qualify and get it).

Pardee does own all that land (for 20 years or more). They might sit on it. But all those lovely CV houses at 1.5M need to be financed somehow. And a lot of those people worked as Realtors, Mortgage brokers, etc. There was NO reason for the prices to go up like they did. There are lots of lots still for sale, lots being sat on, Pardee only has 1 derby hill home for sale (that I could see)… They will wait till someone buys it and then put up the next one. This could happen all while prices fall and fall and fall.

Wait till all the people in CV start losing all their equity. Wonder what will happen?!!! Every single neighbor in our street in CV redid their entire home with new kitchens, pools, baths, extensions, landscaping. They didn’t save up for it, they refinanced. They also bought a crapload of vacation homes, 3rd cars, timeshares, vacations, boats, and toys. They didn’t intend to sell, they have watched their equity go up, so did their mortgages. As the equity shrinks, the spending will go down, as the houses on the market get hammered, the sentiment will change.

Oh the arrogance to think that prices can only go up! How much are these houses worth jammed 6 feet away from each other, crappy pipes, crap construction, 6000-9000 foot lots, when interest rates are 8%…

[cyphire]

probably true…

[cyphire]

probably true…

[cyphire]

probably true…

[cyphire]

I agree…. I’m already seeing it.

Costco was somewhat empty compared to usual.

I went into Home Depot (to buy an air conditioner)… They were sold out… And the place was a ghost town.

Last week I went into a Home Depot Expo…. COMPLETELY EMPTY. There were about 7 cars in the parking lot.

I went to WalMart for the first time in my life. Also no Air Conditioners. Few people – and no one in the cafe area.

The spigot is still on – but people are maxing out their cards. The cards are going up in interest rates. As the job creation falls off and more and more layoffs occur it’s going to get ugly.

[cyphire]

I agree…. I’m already seeing it.

Costco was somewhat empty compared to usual.

I went into Home Depot (to buy an air conditioner)… They were sold out… And the place was a ghost town.

Last week I went into a Home Depot Expo…. COMPLETELY EMPTY. There were about 7 cars in the parking lot.

I went to WalMart for the first time in my life. Also no Air Conditioners. Few people – and no one in the cafe area.

The spigot is still on – but people are maxing out their cards. The cards are going up in interest rates. As the job creation falls off and more and more layoffs occur it’s going to get ugly.

[cyphire]

I agree…. I’m already seeing it.

Costco was somewhat empty compared to usual.

I went into Home Depot (to buy an air conditioner)… They were sold out… And the place was a ghost town.

Last week I went into a Home Depot Expo…. COMPLETELY EMPTY. There were about 7 cars in the parking lot.

I went to WalMart for the first time in my life. Also no Air Conditioners. Few people – and no one in the cafe area.

The spigot is still on – but people are maxing out their cards. The cards are going up in interest rates. As the job creation falls off and more and more layoffs occur it’s going to get ugly.

[cyphire]

People don’t look at the long term – we aren’t wired that way. The house I am in has gone from 900K to 2.5M since Jun ’03. I am renting at 33% of the cost of owning (ignoring tax savings). Thats right, in 4 years it has almost tripled. The free and easy credit and the constantly increasing home values made this a ride up outside of reality. Now we have reality. You need excellent credit and a substantial down payment to buy a home today.

The job losses in real estate, mortgage brokers, banks, construction, and all the companies which provided their services (secondary impact) have yet to be felt by the economy. The tremors have been happening for months, but the first explosion didn’t hit till this month. With the explosion, lava is coming down. But the villages are still a bit down away from the lava, but it is coming.

You can’t build a huge helicopter to take the village away to safety, you have to ride it out. In your smoldering village!

The main aspect of real estate is that it’s severely illiquid. As the loans reset, and the new folks can’t afford or have the credit for the current loans, it will put constant downward pressure on the market. We are truly living in a house of cards. Housing is not affordable, and it is especially not affordable for the large number of people who see their equity erode, their liabilities grow (and the interest rate), and their job prospects diminish as the fallout comes over the next few years (or more).

The suckers haven’t left the market, but I don’t think that there are enough of them to keep the prices stable. I think that while we have had an explosion in credit stability, the long term prospects are much more severe and as previously stated, there must be a return to quasi-affordability. The only reason that affordability didn’t matter previously was the manipulation of interest rates both by the government, and the policy of adjustable rates. Well guess what… Rates have adjusted! I think that the possibility exists that rates will not go up any more, but will go down slightly… I don’t see any easier answer.. I don’t know… What do you think?

[cyphire]

People don’t look at the long term – we aren’t wired that way. The house I am in has gone from 900K to 2.5M since Jun ’03. I am renting at 33% of the cost of owning (ignoring tax savings). Thats right, in 4 years it has almost tripled. The free and easy credit and the constantly increasing home values made this a ride up outside of reality. Now we have reality. You need excellent credit and a substantial down payment to buy a home today.

The job losses in real estate, mortgage brokers, banks, construction, and all the companies which provided their services (secondary impact) have yet to be felt by the economy. The tremors have been happening for months, but the first explosion didn’t hit till this month. With the explosion, lava is coming down. But the villages are still a bit down away from the lava, but it is coming.

You can’t build a huge helicopter to take the village away to safety, you have to ride it out. In your smoldering village!

The main aspect of real estate is that it’s severely illiquid. As the loans reset, and the new folks can’t afford or have the credit for the current loans, it will put constant downward pressure on the market. We are truly living in a house of cards. Housing is not affordable, and it is especially not affordable for the large number of people who see their equity erode, their liabilities grow (and the interest rate), and their job prospects diminish as the fallout comes over the next few years (or more).

The suckers haven’t left the market, but I don’t think that there are enough of them to keep the prices stable. I think that while we have had an explosion in credit stability, the long term prospects are much more severe and as previously stated, there must be a return to quasi-affordability. The only reason that affordability didn’t matter previously was the manipulation of interest rates both by the government, and the policy of adjustable rates. Well guess what… Rates have adjusted! I think that the possibility exists that rates will not go up any more, but will go down slightly… I don’t see any easier answer.. I don’t know… What do you think?

[cyphire]

People don’t look at the long term – we aren’t wired that way. The house I am in has gone from 900K to 2.5M since Jun ’03. I am renting at 33% of the cost of owning (ignoring tax savings). Thats right, in 4 years it has almost tripled. The free and easy credit and the constantly increasing home values made this a ride up outside of reality. Now we have reality. You need excellent credit and a substantial down payment to buy a home today.

The job losses in real estate, mortgage brokers, banks, construction, and all the companies which provided their services (secondary impact) have yet to be felt by the economy. The tremors have been happening for months, but the first explosion didn’t hit till this month. With the explosion, lava is coming down. But the villages are still a bit down away from the lava, but it is coming.

You can’t build a huge helicopter to take the village away to safety, you have to ride it out. In your smoldering village!

The main aspect of real estate is that it’s severely illiquid. As the loans reset, and the new folks can’t afford or have the credit for the current loans, it will put constant downward pressure on the market. We are truly living in a house of cards. Housing is not affordable, and it is especially not affordable for the large number of people who see their equity erode, their liabilities grow (and the interest rate), and their job prospects diminish as the fallout comes over the next few years (or more).

The suckers haven’t left the market, but I don’t think that there are enough of them to keep the prices stable. I think that while we have had an explosion in credit stability, the long term prospects are much more severe and as previously stated, there must be a return to quasi-affordability. The only reason that affordability didn’t matter previously was the manipulation of interest rates both by the government, and the policy of adjustable rates. Well guess what… Rates have adjusted! I think that the possibility exists that rates will not go up any more, but will go down slightly… I don’t see any easier answer.. I don’t know… What do you think?

[cyphire]

It’s a tough call – but I think the basic problem is that we are the only first world country to not actually provide healthcare to it’s citizens. We have been programmed to believe that if its the government it’s bad. Problem is that the free market system, which also controls our political will (the people are sheep – the lobbyists win) – doesn’t really efficiently handle social issues like health care.

You are correct – the supply problem in the ER is that the uninsured must be taken whether or not they can pay. If they added more ER’s and more doctors, the wait wouldn’t go down, it would just get more volume. This is the fundamental breakdown in the system. If even illegals had access to health care (I’m not advocating it one way or another, just a point) then the ER’s wouldn’t be so crowded. If doctors offices operated like any other business, they wouldn’t have bankers hours (funny – but even banks are open till 7pm and on Sat and Sun – Dr’s shut down at 4pm on Fridays.

We need a socialized health care system. We need to start removing the private element from health care. They are delivering a crap product at the highest price on the planet. And the quality of care sucks. We are ranked 34th in health care for a reason….

To me the biggest crime (I just sold my company in pharma) is that our drug companies hide their profits, go offshore, take illegal tax breaks, lie about their cost and profit percentages as a relation to geography, and give huge discounts to all the other countries except ours (they are the best at paying off our corrupt thieving politicians.)

As long as Canada gets our drugs at 1/2 price and we are paying full we have a lot to be ashamed about.

[cyphire]

It’s a tough call – but I think the basic problem is that we are the only first world country to not actually provide healthcare to it’s citizens. We have been programmed to believe that if its the government it’s bad. Problem is that the free market system, which also controls our political will (the people are sheep – the lobbyists win) – doesn’t really efficiently handle social issues like health care.

You are correct – the supply problem in the ER is that the uninsured must be taken whether or not they can pay. If they added more ER’s and more doctors, the wait wouldn’t go down, it would just get more volume. This is the fundamental breakdown in the system. If even illegals had access to health care (I’m not advocating it one way or another, just a point) then the ER’s wouldn’t be so crowded. If doctors offices operated like any other business, they wouldn’t have bankers hours (funny – but even banks are open till 7pm and on Sat and Sun – Dr’s shut down at 4pm on Fridays.

We need a socialized health care system. We need to start removing the private element from health care. They are delivering a crap product at the highest price on the planet. And the quality of care sucks. We are ranked 34th in health care for a reason….

To me the biggest crime (I just sold my company in pharma) is that our drug companies hide their profits, go offshore, take illegal tax breaks, lie about their cost and profit percentages as a relation to geography, and give huge discounts to all the other countries except ours (they are the best at paying off our corrupt thieving politicians.)

As long as Canada gets our drugs at 1/2 price and we are paying full we have a lot to be ashamed about.

[cyphire]

It’s a tough call – but I think the basic problem is that we are the only first world country to not actually provide healthcare to it’s citizens. We have been programmed to believe that if its the government it’s bad. Problem is that the free market system, which also controls our political will (the people are sheep – the lobbyists win) – doesn’t really efficiently handle social issues like health care.

You are correct – the supply problem in the ER is that the uninsured must be taken whether or not they can pay. If they added more ER’s and more doctors, the wait wouldn’t go down, it would just get more volume. This is the fundamental breakdown in the system. If even illegals had access to health care (I’m not advocating it one way or another, just a point) then the ER’s wouldn’t be so crowded. If doctors offices operated like any other business, they wouldn’t have bankers hours (funny – but even banks are open till 7pm and on Sat and Sun – Dr’s shut down at 4pm on Fridays.

We need a socialized health care system. We need to start removing the private element from health care. They are delivering a crap product at the highest price on the planet. And the quality of care sucks. We are ranked 34th in health care for a reason….

To me the biggest crime (I just sold my company in pharma) is that our drug companies hide their profits, go offshore, take illegal tax breaks, lie about their cost and profit percentages as a relation to geography, and give huge discounts to all the other countries except ours (they are the best at paying off our corrupt thieving politicians.)

As long as Canada gets our drugs at 1/2 price and we are paying full we have a lot to be ashamed about.

[cyphire]

Lol…. But I think it was sincere – also whats the angle on trying to get someone to take over the mortgage… The response I got was:

“thank for corect my writing”

and the first name was Dung (last name omitted but was Vietminh, or Laotian)

[cyphire]

Lol…. But I think it was sincere – also whats the angle on trying to get someone to take over the mortgage… The response I got was:

“thank for corect my writing”

and the first name was Dung (last name omitted but was Vietminh, or Laotian)

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