Forum Replies Created
-
AuthorPosts
-
carlsbadworker
Participantpeterb, I find your viewpoint interesting. So far, the FED and the government are worrying that the lenders will not lend the money because the risk is too high. But you are instead implying that the general American public borrowers don’t want to borrow as well. Goldman Sachs is already predicting that the saving rate will go up to 10% this year. So in your scenario, the US will actually become a nation of savers in spite of government reported CPI (which doesn’t count housing costs, but does count rental cost) has started increasing?
So I guess, it will be in fact perfectly safe to take risks at that time when the others are in fear? Because the economy will have strong footing from then on because the saving glut will provide adequate support for the economy going forward?Participantpeterb, I find your viewpoint interesting. So far, the FED and the government are worrying that the lenders will not lend the money because the risk is too high. But you are instead implying that the general American public borrowers don’t want to borrow as well. Goldman Sachs is already predicting that the saving rate will go up to 10% this year. So in your scenario, the US will actually become a nation of savers in spite of government reported CPI (which doesn’t count housing costs, but does count rental cost) has started increasing?
So I guess, it will be in fact perfectly safe to take risks at that time when the others are in fear? Because the economy will have strong footing from then on because the saving glut will provide adequate support for the economy going forward?Participantpeterb, I find your viewpoint interesting. So far, the FED and the government are worrying that the lenders will not lend the money because the risk is too high. But you are instead implying that the general American public borrowers don’t want to borrow as well. Goldman Sachs is already predicting that the saving rate will go up to 10% this year. So in your scenario, the US will actually become a nation of savers in spite of government reported CPI (which doesn’t count housing costs, but does count rental cost) has started increasing?
So I guess, it will be in fact perfectly safe to take risks at that time when the others are in fear? Because the economy will have strong footing from then on because the saving glut will provide adequate support for the economy going forward?Participantpeterb, I find your viewpoint interesting. So far, the FED and the government are worrying that the lenders will not lend the money because the risk is too high. But you are instead implying that the general American public borrowers don’t want to borrow as well. Goldman Sachs is already predicting that the saving rate will go up to 10% this year. So in your scenario, the US will actually become a nation of savers in spite of government reported CPI (which doesn’t count housing costs, but does count rental cost) has started increasing?
So I guess, it will be in fact perfectly safe to take risks at that time when the others are in fear? Because the economy will have strong footing from then on because the saving glut will provide adequate support for the economy going forward?Participant[quote=peterb]I have no problem seeing 1997 prices in the next couple of years….and the reason will be that no one has money to buy a house. Careful what you wish for. I’ve said it before on this site many times….when prices get to where everyone wants them, it will be because the economy is on life support. Will you have a job and the desire to take on a big debt in this situation??
I think fear will rule the day, not greed.[/quote]By the way, just want to emphasize that this is a much worse scenario than what is predicted by OP. Others are still predicting 1997 inflation-adjusted price but I think you are predicting 1997 nominal price. The economy is deteriorating fast from the beginning of this year, so I don’t want to rule out your scenario. I am just wondering what is the optimal plan to manage such risk?
Participant[quote=peterb]I have no problem seeing 1997 prices in the next couple of years….and the reason will be that no one has money to buy a house. Careful what you wish for. I’ve said it before on this site many times….when prices get to where everyone wants them, it will be because the economy is on life support. Will you have a job and the desire to take on a big debt in this situation??
I think fear will rule the day, not greed.[/quote]By the way, just want to emphasize that this is a much worse scenario than what is predicted by OP. Others are still predicting 1997 inflation-adjusted price but I think you are predicting 1997 nominal price. The economy is deteriorating fast from the beginning of this year, so I don’t want to rule out your scenario. I am just wondering what is the optimal plan to manage such risk?
Participant[quote=peterb]I have no problem seeing 1997 prices in the next couple of years….and the reason will be that no one has money to buy a house. Careful what you wish for. I’ve said it before on this site many times….when prices get to where everyone wants them, it will be because the economy is on life support. Will you have a job and the desire to take on a big debt in this situation??
I think fear will rule the day, not greed.[/quote]By the way, just want to emphasize that this is a much worse scenario than what is predicted by OP. Others are still predicting 1997 inflation-adjusted price but I think you are predicting 1997 nominal price. The economy is deteriorating fast from the beginning of this year, so I don’t want to rule out your scenario. I am just wondering what is the optimal plan to manage such risk?
Participant[quote=peterb]I have no problem seeing 1997 prices in the next couple of years….and the reason will be that no one has money to buy a house. Careful what you wish for. I’ve said it before on this site many times….when prices get to where everyone wants them, it will be because the economy is on life support. Will you have a job and the desire to take on a big debt in this situation??
I think fear will rule the day, not greed.[/quote]By the way, just want to emphasize that this is a much worse scenario than what is predicted by OP. Others are still predicting 1997 inflation-adjusted price but I think you are predicting 1997 nominal price. The economy is deteriorating fast from the beginning of this year, so I don’t want to rule out your scenario. I am just wondering what is the optimal plan to manage such risk?
Participant[quote=peterb]I have no problem seeing 1997 prices in the next couple of years….and the reason will be that no one has money to buy a house. Careful what you wish for. I’ve said it before on this site many times….when prices get to where everyone wants them, it will be because the economy is on life support. Will you have a job and the desire to take on a big debt in this situation??
I think fear will rule the day, not greed.[/quote]By the way, just want to emphasize that this is a much worse scenario than what is predicted by OP. Others are still predicting 1997 inflation-adjusted price but I think you are predicting 1997 nominal price. The economy is deteriorating fast from the beginning of this year, so I don’t want to rule out your scenario. I am just wondering what is the optimal plan to manage such risk?
Participant[quote=peterb]I have no problem seeing 1997 prices in the next couple of years….and the reason will be that no one has money to buy a house. Careful what you wish for. I’ve said it before on this site many times….when prices get to where everyone wants them, it will be because the economy is on life support. Will you have a job and the desire to take on a big debt in this situation??
I think fear will rule the day, not greed.[/quote]OK. I agree that’s one possible scenario. But Warren Buffett said, “Predicting rain doesn’t count, building arks does.” So what do you suggest us to do now to prepare for that? Starting to hoard cash so that one can pick up a property with 100% cash at low-priced area at that time? But if things are that bad, shouldn’t people really start to worry about the low-priced neighborhood turning into ghetto?
How can we likely profit from the above scenario or you think we are doomed regardlessly?Participant[quote=peterb]I have no problem seeing 1997 prices in the next couple of years….and the reason will be that no one has money to buy a house. Careful what you wish for. I’ve said it before on this site many times….when prices get to where everyone wants them, it will be because the economy is on life support. Will you have a job and the desire to take on a big debt in this situation??
I think fear will rule the day, not greed.[/quote]OK. I agree that’s one possible scenario. But Warren Buffett said, “Predicting rain doesn’t count, building arks does.” So what do you suggest us to do now to prepare for that? Starting to hoard cash so that one can pick up a property with 100% cash at low-priced area at that time? But if things are that bad, shouldn’t people really start to worry about the low-priced neighborhood turning into ghetto?
How can we likely profit from the above scenario or you think we are doomed regardlessly?Participant[quote=peterb]I have no problem seeing 1997 prices in the next couple of years….and the reason will be that no one has money to buy a house. Careful what you wish for. I’ve said it before on this site many times….when prices get to where everyone wants them, it will be because the economy is on life support. Will you have a job and the desire to take on a big debt in this situation??
I think fear will rule the day, not greed.[/quote]OK. I agree that’s one possible scenario. But Warren Buffett said, “Predicting rain doesn’t count, building arks does.” So what do you suggest us to do now to prepare for that? Starting to hoard cash so that one can pick up a property with 100% cash at low-priced area at that time? But if things are that bad, shouldn’t people really start to worry about the low-priced neighborhood turning into ghetto?
How can we likely profit from the above scenario or you think we are doomed regardlessly?Participant[quote=peterb]I have no problem seeing 1997 prices in the next couple of years….and the reason will be that no one has money to buy a house. Careful what you wish for. I’ve said it before on this site many times….when prices get to where everyone wants them, it will be because the economy is on life support. Will you have a job and the desire to take on a big debt in this situation??
I think fear will rule the day, not greed.[/quote]OK. I agree that’s one possible scenario. But Warren Buffett said, “Predicting rain doesn’t count, building arks does.” So what do you suggest us to do now to prepare for that? Starting to hoard cash so that one can pick up a property with 100% cash at low-priced area at that time? But if things are that bad, shouldn’t people really start to worry about the low-priced neighborhood turning into ghetto?
How can we likely profit from the above scenario or you think we are doomed regardlessly?Participant[quote=peterb]I have no problem seeing 1997 prices in the next couple of years….and the reason will be that no one has money to buy a house. Careful what you wish for. I’ve said it before on this site many times….when prices get to where everyone wants them, it will be because the economy is on life support. Will you have a job and the desire to take on a big debt in this situation??
I think fear will rule the day, not greed.[/quote]OK. I agree that’s one possible scenario. But Warren Buffett said, “Predicting rain doesn’t count, building arks does.” So what do you suggest us to do now to prepare for that? Starting to hoard cash so that one can pick up a property with 100% cash at low-priced area at that time? But if things are that bad, shouldn’t people really start to worry about the low-priced neighborhood turning into ghetto?
How can we likely profit from the above scenario or you think we are doomed regardlessly? -
AuthorPosts
