[carlsbadworker]

I actually think people shouldn’t trust experts too much, period. Philip Tetlock, a professor at Berkeley’s Haas School of Business once did a study. The result is that experts are normally even not as good as non-experts. That’s because they don’t modify their forecasts in the light of new information, as they felt that they knew all the relevant facts. Such kind of over-confidence will blind them from making accurate prediction about the future.
It’s a dangerous path that I see many very smart piggie are going down with.

[carlsbadworker]

I actually think people shouldn’t trust experts too much, period. Philip Tetlock, a professor at Berkeley’s Haas School of Business once did a study. The result is that experts are normally even not as good as non-experts. That’s because they don’t modify their forecasts in the light of new information, as they felt that they knew all the relevant facts. Such kind of over-confidence will blind them from making accurate prediction about the future.
It’s a dangerous path that I see many very smart piggie are going down with.

[carlsbadworker]

I actually think people shouldn’t trust experts too much, period. Philip Tetlock, a professor at Berkeley’s Haas School of Business once did a study. The result is that experts are normally even not as good as non-experts. That’s because they don’t modify their forecasts in the light of new information, as they felt that they knew all the relevant facts. Such kind of over-confidence will blind them from making accurate prediction about the future.
It’s a dangerous path that I see many very smart piggie are going down with.

[carlsbadworker]

I actually think people shouldn’t trust experts too much, period. Philip Tetlock, a professor at Berkeley’s Haas School of Business once did a study. The result is that experts are normally even not as good as non-experts. That’s because they don’t modify their forecasts in the light of new information, as they felt that they knew all the relevant facts. Such kind of over-confidence will blind them from making accurate prediction about the future.
It’s a dangerous path that I see many very smart piggie are going down with.

[carlsbadworker]

I actually think people shouldn’t trust experts too much, period. Philip Tetlock, a professor at Berkeley’s Haas School of Business once did a study. The result is that experts are normally even not as good as non-experts. That’s because they don’t modify their forecasts in the light of new information, as they felt that they knew all the relevant facts. Such kind of over-confidence will blind them from making accurate prediction about the future.
It’s a dangerous path that I see many very smart piggie are going down with.

[carlsbadworker]

Cabal, good observation. I agree that confidence is the key and interest rate and employment is secondary, but that only applies to affordable regions. For coastal areas with bubble price, no matter how confident the borrowers are, it will be increasingly harder to borrow money if the leverage ratio is high. By the way, I am not under-estimating the amount of the sideline money. But my theory is that those mainly are savings that will run out some day. With high unemployment and a relatively less frenzy stock market, saving will eventually deplete.

[carlsbadworker]

Cabal, good observation. I agree that confidence is the key and interest rate and employment is secondary, but that only applies to affordable regions. For coastal areas with bubble price, no matter how confident the borrowers are, it will be increasingly harder to borrow money if the leverage ratio is high. By the way, I am not under-estimating the amount of the sideline money. But my theory is that those mainly are savings that will run out some day. With high unemployment and a relatively less frenzy stock market, saving will eventually deplete.

[carlsbadworker]

Cabal, good observation. I agree that confidence is the key and interest rate and employment is secondary, but that only applies to affordable regions. For coastal areas with bubble price, no matter how confident the borrowers are, it will be increasingly harder to borrow money if the leverage ratio is high. By the way, I am not under-estimating the amount of the sideline money. But my theory is that those mainly are savings that will run out some day. With high unemployment and a relatively less frenzy stock market, saving will eventually deplete.

[carlsbadworker]

Cabal, good observation. I agree that confidence is the key and interest rate and employment is secondary, but that only applies to affordable regions. For coastal areas with bubble price, no matter how confident the borrowers are, it will be increasingly harder to borrow money if the leverage ratio is high. By the way, I am not under-estimating the amount of the sideline money. But my theory is that those mainly are savings that will run out some day. With high unemployment and a relatively less frenzy stock market, saving will eventually deplete.

[carlsbadworker]

Cabal, good observation. I agree that confidence is the key and interest rate and employment is secondary, but that only applies to affordable regions. For coastal areas with bubble price, no matter how confident the borrowers are, it will be increasingly harder to borrow money if the leverage ratio is high. By the way, I am not under-estimating the amount of the sideline money. But my theory is that those mainly are savings that will run out some day. With high unemployment and a relatively less frenzy stock market, saving will eventually deplete.

[carlsbadworker]

Forgive me to say this, but this isn’t the best place to ask this kind of question. Piggington is known for its analytical and data mining skills, it has no skills in sorcery and witchcraft that can be applied to perfect market timing. By asking this kind of question, you are feeding the delusional ego of some posters here who think they can perfectly time the market.
Although James Surowiecki did show that there is a thing called the wisdom of the crowd, but this community is constantly exposed to the same set of the data that it is undoubtably biased because of such kind of exposure.
I myself am biased on the upside because I don’t have many friends that got laid off and my salary is 80% higher than it was in 2001 so I will certainly consider Temecula’s 2001 price a steal, but that is not necessarily true for others. Some pessimists maybe are waiting for price in the 80s. In an independent crowd, you can even out such bias impacts and get a better estimate. But I just don’t think piggington is the place, although it is very knowledgable about real estate.

[carlsbadworker]

Forgive me to say this, but this isn’t the best place to ask this kind of question. Piggington is known for its analytical and data mining skills, it has no skills in sorcery and witchcraft that can be applied to perfect market timing. By asking this kind of question, you are feeding the delusional ego of some posters here who think they can perfectly time the market.
Although James Surowiecki did show that there is a thing called the wisdom of the crowd, but this community is constantly exposed to the same set of the data that it is undoubtably biased because of such kind of exposure.
I myself am biased on the upside because I don’t have many friends that got laid off and my salary is 80% higher than it was in 2001 so I will certainly consider Temecula’s 2001 price a steal, but that is not necessarily true for others. Some pessimists maybe are waiting for price in the 80s. In an independent crowd, you can even out such bias impacts and get a better estimate. But I just don’t think piggington is the place, although it is very knowledgable about real estate.

[carlsbadworker]

Forgive me to say this, but this isn’t the best place to ask this kind of question. Piggington is known for its analytical and data mining skills, it has no skills in sorcery and witchcraft that can be applied to perfect market timing. By asking this kind of question, you are feeding the delusional ego of some posters here who think they can perfectly time the market.
Although James Surowiecki did show that there is a thing called the wisdom of the crowd, but this community is constantly exposed to the same set of the data that it is undoubtably biased because of such kind of exposure.
I myself am biased on the upside because I don’t have many friends that got laid off and my salary is 80% higher than it was in 2001 so I will certainly consider Temecula’s 2001 price a steal, but that is not necessarily true for others. Some pessimists maybe are waiting for price in the 80s. In an independent crowd, you can even out such bias impacts and get a better estimate. But I just don’t think piggington is the place, although it is very knowledgable about real estate.

[carlsbadworker]

Forgive me to say this, but this isn’t the best place to ask this kind of question. Piggington is known for its analytical and data mining skills, it has no skills in sorcery and witchcraft that can be applied to perfect market timing. By asking this kind of question, you are feeding the delusional ego of some posters here who think they can perfectly time the market.
Although James Surowiecki did show that there is a thing called the wisdom of the crowd, but this community is constantly exposed to the same set of the data that it is undoubtably biased because of such kind of exposure.
I myself am biased on the upside because I don’t have many friends that got laid off and my salary is 80% higher than it was in 2001 so I will certainly consider Temecula’s 2001 price a steal, but that is not necessarily true for others. Some pessimists maybe are waiting for price in the 80s. In an independent crowd, you can even out such bias impacts and get a better estimate. But I just don’t think piggington is the place, although it is very knowledgable about real estate.

[carlsbadworker]

Forgive me to say this, but this isn’t the best place to ask this kind of question. Piggington is known for its analytical and data mining skills, it has no skills in sorcery and witchcraft that can be applied to perfect market timing. By asking this kind of question, you are feeding the delusional ego of some posters here who think they can perfectly time the market.
Although James Surowiecki did show that there is a thing called the wisdom of the crowd, but this community is constantly exposed to the same set of the data that it is undoubtably biased because of such kind of exposure.
I myself am biased on the upside because I don’t have many friends that got laid off and my salary is 80% higher than it was in 2001 so I will certainly consider Temecula’s 2001 price a steal, but that is not necessarily true for others. Some pessimists maybe are waiting for price in the 80s. In an independent crowd, you can even out such bias impacts and get a better estimate. But I just don’t think piggington is the place, although it is very knowledgable about real estate.

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