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carlsbadworker
Participant[quote=moneymaker]It will definitely get crazy if nobody wins this time! With around 188M tickets purchased last time I’m sure it will be more this time.[/quote]
I read that 400M tickets are already sold in the first 48 hours. My first impression is: damn, the American poor are rich!
Participant[quote=no_such_reality]Expected value isn’t useful when the probabilities are very small or the payoffs extreme.[/quote]
Yes, I don’t understand the frenzy about the $600M jackpot. Normal jackpot at $12M is enough for me. And the odds is the same for every drawing.
Participant[quote=moneymaker]Wait til 3.14.15 9:36PM[/quote]
9:36pm??
Participant[quote=Effective Demand]
Curious, What makes handymen so special that they get to cheat on their taxes and not be criminals?I do an honest days work too, can I cheat on my taxes?[/quote]
What makes lemonade stand so special that kids in the neighborhood kids can just set them up without license and cheat on taxes? If they instead babysit, I think they are required to get 1099 based on recent regulations. America is simply over-regulated, give us some breaks!
Participant[quote=CDMA ENG]You don’t need power steering if you are power lifting… Wuss! 😛
Also my friend from Denver has a comment about SoCal and ppl driving BMWs/Nice Cars. One. A nice car cost less than a nice house. Two since ppl who commute in SoCal spend more time in the car than they do the house why not buy a nice car. Some truth in that…
But for my two cents I think any uptick is just another tech bubble. I read Mish. I read the economist. Neither have anything rosy to report. Europe is imploding… Orders for durable goods are down… So what is the bright side? Maybe the dollar will get stronger against other currencies but that is the only rallying point.
The only other upside is unemployment is down and that is just a number game anyway!
So there is a lot of people reporting this and ppl reporting that which is some good news on the local level but it is still anetodetal…
As SDDuuuude says “In God we trust. Everyone else bring data.”
CE
My Vote is no. Economy is not getting better. Its just getting sunny outside so you all are not as depressing as normal for the last 4 months! :p[/quote]
OK. I am bringing some data. Chrysler, now part of Italy’s Fiat, just reported its best January sales since 2008, up 44% from a year earlier. And it announced it would hire 1,800 people at a plant in Belvidere, Illinois, to build its new Dodge Dart. And the good news is hardly confined to Chrysler. The auto industry as a whole sold 1.2m vehicles in January, many more than expected, and a 4% increase from December.
Where is your data?
Participant[quote=paramount]Check Zillow for 92592…[/quote]
I don’t need to check sites like Zillow or Redfin. I am actually out bidding for houses right now. Let me tell you it is tough for buyers right now…much tougher than end of 2008 (it wasn’t easy at that time either). The price is higher and you still won’t get it at listing for reasonably priced homes.
Participant[quote=paramount]As much as I want to be; I’m not convinced yet the economy is actually improving (significantly) – at least in my time frame..
What I see is continuing falling home prices, still brutal numbers of foreclosures and short sales – which are killing home prices at least in Temecula.
Is it better than 2008/2009? Maybe; prices of homes aren’t falling as fast, but they’re still falling.
The layoff situation has improved.
But year over year (2011->2012), I’m not really seeing it.[/quote]
paramount, you must be living in a different town than I am. The home price is still higher than 2008-2009 although it starts to have some competitive pricing. But there are lots of traffic for any home that is competitively priced. Inventory for investment-grade home is almost non-existent. Multiple offers above the list price is common for other homes.
New homes are also selling but I don’t know how it compared to before because I am never interested in that category. But construction is happening. At Home Depot and Lowes, however, I have yet to see any significant traffic increase.
The steakhouses in Temecula now has very long lines over the weekend. The line used to be non-existent in the last few years (the long lines were common in bubble years as well). I don’t know what caused it, but it seems that people just become very bullish about the economy in the last few months. My neighbor (who I suspect is not paying their mortgage) just bought a new car. And dealership would not negotiate or price-match on price anymore (2 years ago, when I bought my last car, they are very cooperative in pricing). 3 years ago, they were making insane price cuts to get off their inventory.
Participant[quote=markmax33]Any increase in the economy is directly tied to the cheap money lending by the federal reserve and has next to nothing to do with the what the federal government has done to stimulate the economy.[/quote]
I agree this overall. I think the stimulus that the economy got is mostly from increased lending that the household has got in the last few months. People who use to work for 35 hours, now work for 40 hours. And people who used to have a bad job now got a better job. So the banks are now more willing to lend to them given their alternative option is almost-no-yield treasury.
However, this may be sustainable because animal spirit has its own way of growth. The corporate margin is finally declining though and EU/China still pose risks. So it might be a mini-bubble as well. I can’t predict the future.
December 28, 2011 at 11:21 AM in reply to: Paying extra to your mortgage, why balance went down only by $544.75 when I paid $2,131.96? #735090Participant[quote=ninaprincess]Some people advised us against this because we would lose the tax advantage but I think we are not discipline enough to not spend the money if it is sitting in the bank. I rather have my money in the house or 401k.[/quote]
I don’t understand the tax advantage statement because you have to pay extra interest to get a partial tax return. But it is mathematically proven that having some kind of debt can increase your overall financial returns. However, the key is the debt level has to be “optimal” such that you can repay them safely. And any income is not passive is probably not very safe.
December 27, 2011 at 10:25 AM in reply to: Paying extra to your mortgage, why balance went down only by $544.75 when I paid $2,131.96? #735014ParticipantWhen making payments, you will need to specify whether it goes to extra principle or it is a pre-payment for next month. The default is the latter for most mortgage. But you can call them to make sure that $40K goes into principle when you make that extra payment.
ParticipantZillow is actually pretty accurate when the market price is moving slowly.
The time when it is fairly inaccurate is when prices are moving very quickly…like year 2008.
December 15, 2011 at 9:21 PM in reply to: Overcounting Housing Data for 4 years??? GREAT JOB NAR #734719ParticipantThey have done the nation a great service with their forecast: all idiot realtors who listens to them have been put out of business. So we are left with the qualified realtors such as sdr, SDR and JtR.
Participant[quote=pri_dk]
I’m surprised that people make these arguments so often without thinking it through.Capital (savings) goes to a company, the company is in the business of selling stuff.
Somebody has gotta buy that stuff for the cycle to work.
Lots of companies have plenty of cash right now. The economy needs capital, but it also needs demand.
I’d buy something but there’s really nothing that interests me. Flu’s camera suggestion was good, but I’m gonna pass. Too much money for just an upgrade.[/quote]
You are making comments against your own arguments. The blank Keynesian argument that demand needs to be stimulated in recession is not entirely valid. I believe demand needs to be stimulated only when there is panic in the market. It does not need to be stimulated if the product mix is out of whack comparing to a sustainable consumption need. Take housing for example, we need to stimulate demand when there is panic against owning a house. But we don’t need to stimulate demand for 2006-2007 era pricing because it is not what people need.
I would argue that at the moment we don’t need to stimulate the short-term demand because consumer is not in panic mood and the companies who got the capital with demand stimulus are in China, and the capital is recycled back in the US treasury. We need to stimulate the long-term demand which means less debts for the consumer and more savings. But Bernanke are punishing savers and encouraging debts right now to have shorter gains at the cost of long term pains.
Participant[quote=walterwhite]
Ultimately my biggest asset is my health and ability to work.Invest in barbells, mattresses, massages, psychotherapy, and good food.[/quote]
Agree with walter completely.
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