[carlsbadworker]

I am pretty sure that US stock future opens at Sunday night. The New York market maybe is closed but people can trade US future from Asian or European market.
Next time, check here on Sunday night: http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures/

[carlsbadworker]

I don’t know. People suggest hard-assets on this board.

[carlsbadworker]

Future is up a lot. Maybe I will get a chance to cash some stock to remodel my new house this month.

[carlsbadworker]

[quote=squat300]Documentary. It’s about research on what makes people happy. Also lots of interviews with happy people …

Made me think.[/quote]

I saw the same video last night. Surprised to see Professor Sonja because I met her before. The research result quoted by her was pretty shocking. 50% of the happiness was determined by genetics, the stuffs that the society emphasize (money, social status, etc) only account for 10%.

Make me wonder if scaredy ever get a shot with his genetics tendency to over-think… 😛

Happy New Year!

[carlsbadworker]

[quote=flu]It will get extended.[/quote]

I believe so as well…but the seller doesn’t. I don’t know that there is anything they can do now though except not giving me the mail key if the house closes on Jan 2nd.

[carlsbadworker]

I am under-performing comparing to the market because I was very conservative in asset allocation last year. Part of it was forced because I have cash sitting in my account earning nothing (well, to say fairly, it earned some miles for me sitting there) because I have a pending short sale for 7+ months. But part of it was voluntary because I was worried about China slow down, emerging market as well Europe.
That said, in overall asset allocation, if I can close on the house on Dec 31st, I might slightly come ahead of the S&P benchmark because I believe the value of the property has increased in the past few months by looking at the very recent comps nearby. But now it all depends on when the bank would table the fund. Escrow office is also super busy because they have more than 10 sellers who want to close today or next Monday to avoid the tax relief act expiration. So we will see…

[carlsbadworker]

[quote=moneymaker]My wife got returns like that with the BAC stock I recommended to her.[/quote]

Single stock doesn’t matter unless you invest all your money in that single stock. I have stock picks myself that appreciate in that range but it doesn’t mean anything. You have to use the entire asset.

I didn’t expect 2012 to be a good year for investment but it actually was. There are very few asset class that didn’t appreciate over 10% last year, which include:
1. Precious metal
2. Safe bonds (e.g. German/US bonds)
3. Hedge funds (who would guess that?)
4. Commodity actually suffered a loss in 2012

[carlsbadworker]

[quote=sdduuuude]The good news is – the inventory flow isn’t really all that bad, though the months of inventory is still low.[/quote]

I agree. In the area that I am familiar with (Temecula), the inventory has stayed flat at very low level for almost a year but the price appreciation is not that dramatic until recent months.

Real Estate price is sticky because you have appraisers that come in with a value that reflects past/recent purchase. I think to make the price change, you not only need limited inventory and good demand, but also a sentiment in the right direction. If the sentiment is bullish, appraisal no longer determines your purchase price but your loan amount.

On the demand side, the FHA/VA buyers are probably the ones who made 20-30 offers and not getting a single one accepted so they created an illusion of higher demand. Some of these buyer learnt and adjusted their strategy by bidding higher recently in my valley. But the banks also have learnt such that they now request these buyers to have proof of funds to go beyond the FHA limit in case the appraisal would come in lower (which happens quite often).

The sentiment has changed such that it is now very hard for the seller to make price concession with lower appraisal because they think they can wait for a higher price later on. That will gradually drive up the comps and the price will then eventually rise.

[carlsbadworker]

Happy Holiday! Part of the fiscal cliff impact would be the tax relief act expiration. I am surprised that no one mentioned this yet. That is, the short sale seller will be charged for full amount of debt forgiveness as their “gift” income for tax purpose.

It is utter madness right now as everyone is rushing to close before Jan 1st 2013 (so am I).

It is interesting to see its impact on the inventory. Because short sales are now bulk of the inventories that come to market at reasonable price range. If the tax relief act is not extended, it would be the (short) sellers’ interest to just wait for foreclosure. And we will be wishing for the days that there is still a month of inventory.

[carlsbadworker]

[quote=ctr70]It’s disappointing they have to blow another bubble of CA prices once again with these rates instead of just letting the market correct once and for all to it’s natural level with normal rates.[/quote]

Technically, RE is not a bubble when the mortgage payment to rent ratio is in multi-years low.
Bond however is a different story and it may be the most damaging bubble that we ever see.

[carlsbadworker]

[quote=FormerSanDiegan]The notion that interest rate increases lead directly to home price declines is derived from the mis-application of a microeconomic concept (How much less house can I afford if interest rates go up) to a macroeconomic measure (Home prices).

Interest rate changes do not live in a bubble, they impact and are impacted by other factors in the economy. Higher interest rates typically accompany higher inflation. Higher inflation is the result of increases in the price of goods and services. This typically includes labor and housing.[/quote]

You are again using historical examples to predict future. Interest rate could rise not because of inflation, but because no one is willing to lend us money. I don’t believe Greek inflation ever topped 3% in recent years.

[carlsbadworker]

[quote=flu]Rates are gonna stay low per fed action[/quote]

That said, if there is a black swan event that bring down the entire economy, it will be the interest rate. I don’t know how it is possible yet with FED’s printing machine. But the government is overloaded with the debt. Corporate America and investors are lured into debt by low interest rates these days. If the interest rate somehow did rise, it has more impact on your “investments”.

[carlsbadworker]

[quote=livinincali]
Teachers are a pretty decent place to look. The NCTAF says that about 50% of teacher turn over in the first 5 years, but the total turn over is only 16.8%. So once you get past that first 5 years the turnout must get really low to balance out the stats. Here’s an article that talks about public school vs charter school turnover http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/lanow/2011/07/los-angeles-charter-schools-have-high-teacher-turnover.html
[/quote]

OK. A math lesson here: if you have 13% of people who turn over year over year. In 5 years, you will have 1-(1-13%)^5=50% of the 1st year teacher left the position (assume each year, new teacher and old teacher has the same turn over ratio).

[carlsbadworker]

[quote=paramount]Honestly, if schools are of the utmost importance look at Temecula.[/quote]

Temecula HS wasn’t that good if you look at GreatSchools.org scores.

[carlsbadworker]

[quote=SD Realtor]AN I also dream about the days of high rates to buy bonds. However with those days we saw inflation and mortgage rates that would make you cry. Not to mention credit for business loans. Not fun times man.[/quote]

Why there is no fun? Higher rates will force people to make more prudent financial decisions. And bubbles/bursts are the results of reckless financial decision in the past. With low rates, we are becoming a nation of gamblers, how is that any fun for the next generation?

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