[CA renter]

lbjames,

I think what Rustico is trying to say (and it is what I’m saying), is that you can buy a house TODAY that will break-even as a rental.

We sold a house in Oceanside in Q2, 2004 for $400K, and did it in a hour. Right now, you can get a comparable house for under $200K. You could probably rent it out for $1,200-$1,600, depending on how much work you want to put into it and exactly where it is and what you want to deal with for tennants (multiple families can pay more, but do you want that in your rental?). If you put 20% down and have excellent credit, you could break even if you can find something that just needs a little cosmetic work.

Even I (a long-time uber-bear) am being tempted by a few things in O’side and Escondido (for rentals). After waiting for so many years, it’s very difficult to sit on one’s hands and wait when we see stuff that just might make sense — even though it will very likely get worse.

If you aren’t picky about where you live, you can buy today with fairly mild downside potential. This is why you’re seeing the sales volume pick up. I think the downside for **sales volume** is pretty limited from here on out. What’s left is the price drops. 🙂

[CA renter]

Like SD Realtor said, the lower end has already shaved off 40-50%+ in many areas, and is very close to breaking even for investment purposes — if we could be sure that rents won’t go down in the near future.

The higher-end areas were pushed up by loose lending in the lower end — a number of people could sell their starter homes for a $300K++ profit and buy a house in CV with another neg-am liar loan, etc. They have an equity cushion (the down payments from sales of the starter homes) that the starter market didn’t have because the starter homes were purchased with 100% LTV loans, for the most part.

IMHO, the huge declines are pretty much over for the lower end (still expecting some drops for awhile, though) and now we will begin to see the drops in the higher end. I think 2008-2010 will bring dramatic drops in the higher-end areas, because fewer people will be able to bring those huge down payments from the starter homes. We have to wait out the resets, “above-water” sales, and refis enabled by the equity cushion they have.

[CA renter]

Like SD Realtor said, the lower end has already shaved off 40-50%+ in many areas, and is very close to breaking even for investment purposes — if we could be sure that rents won’t go down in the near future.

The higher-end areas were pushed up by loose lending in the lower end — a number of people could sell their starter homes for a $300K++ profit and buy a house in CV with another neg-am liar loan, etc. They have an equity cushion (the down payments from sales of the starter homes) that the starter market didn’t have because the starter homes were purchased with 100% LTV loans, for the most part.

IMHO, the huge declines are pretty much over for the lower end (still expecting some drops for awhile, though) and now we will begin to see the drops in the higher end. I think 2008-2010 will bring dramatic drops in the higher-end areas, because fewer people will be able to bring those huge down payments from the starter homes. We have to wait out the resets, “above-water” sales, and refis enabled by the equity cushion they have.

[CA renter]

Like SD Realtor said, the lower end has already shaved off 40-50%+ in many areas, and is very close to breaking even for investment purposes — if we could be sure that rents won’t go down in the near future.

The higher-end areas were pushed up by loose lending in the lower end — a number of people could sell their starter homes for a $300K++ profit and buy a house in CV with another neg-am liar loan, etc. They have an equity cushion (the down payments from sales of the starter homes) that the starter market didn’t have because the starter homes were purchased with 100% LTV loans, for the most part.

IMHO, the huge declines are pretty much over for the lower end (still expecting some drops for awhile, though) and now we will begin to see the drops in the higher end. I think 2008-2010 will bring dramatic drops in the higher-end areas, because fewer people will be able to bring those huge down payments from the starter homes. We have to wait out the resets, “above-water” sales, and refis enabled by the equity cushion they have.

[CA renter]

Like SD Realtor said, the lower end has already shaved off 40-50%+ in many areas, and is very close to breaking even for investment purposes — if we could be sure that rents won’t go down in the near future.

The higher-end areas were pushed up by loose lending in the lower end — a number of people could sell their starter homes for a $300K++ profit and buy a house in CV with another neg-am liar loan, etc. They have an equity cushion (the down payments from sales of the starter homes) that the starter market didn’t have because the starter homes were purchased with 100% LTV loans, for the most part.

IMHO, the huge declines are pretty much over for the lower end (still expecting some drops for awhile, though) and now we will begin to see the drops in the higher end. I think 2008-2010 will bring dramatic drops in the higher-end areas, because fewer people will be able to bring those huge down payments from the starter homes. We have to wait out the resets, “above-water” sales, and refis enabled by the equity cushion they have.

[CA renter]

Like SD Realtor said, the lower end has already shaved off 40-50%+ in many areas, and is very close to breaking even for investment purposes — if we could be sure that rents won’t go down in the near future.

The higher-end areas were pushed up by loose lending in the lower end — a number of people could sell their starter homes for a $300K++ profit and buy a house in CV with another neg-am liar loan, etc. They have an equity cushion (the down payments from sales of the starter homes) that the starter market didn’t have because the starter homes were purchased with 100% LTV loans, for the most part.

IMHO, the huge declines are pretty much over for the lower end (still expecting some drops for awhile, though) and now we will begin to see the drops in the higher end. I think 2008-2010 will bring dramatic drops in the higher-end areas, because fewer people will be able to bring those huge down payments from the starter homes. We have to wait out the resets, “above-water” sales, and refis enabled by the equity cushion they have.

[CA renter]

Waiting,

There was a house at 304 Trailview Road in Encinitas which was listed for $540K.

It was a 4/2, 1980 sf.

It’s pending now, but I am seeing a few “good deals” every now and again (“good deal” meaning relative to the current and peak market prices). This one might be under contract for a higher price — there are bidding wars for the better priced homes.

They are out there, and they’re coming on more frequently. This one probably would have listed in the $700K+ range at peak.

[CA renter]

Waiting,

There was a house at 304 Trailview Road in Encinitas which was listed for $540K.

It was a 4/2, 1980 sf.

It’s pending now, but I am seeing a few “good deals” every now and again (“good deal” meaning relative to the current and peak market prices). This one might be under contract for a higher price — there are bidding wars for the better priced homes.

They are out there, and they’re coming on more frequently. This one probably would have listed in the $700K+ range at peak.

[CA renter]

Waiting,

There was a house at 304 Trailview Road in Encinitas which was listed for $540K.

It was a 4/2, 1980 sf.

It’s pending now, but I am seeing a few “good deals” every now and again (“good deal” meaning relative to the current and peak market prices). This one might be under contract for a higher price — there are bidding wars for the better priced homes.

They are out there, and they’re coming on more frequently. This one probably would have listed in the $700K+ range at peak.

[CA renter]

Waiting,

There was a house at 304 Trailview Road in Encinitas which was listed for $540K.

It was a 4/2, 1980 sf.

It’s pending now, but I am seeing a few “good deals” every now and again (“good deal” meaning relative to the current and peak market prices). This one might be under contract for a higher price — there are bidding wars for the better priced homes.

They are out there, and they’re coming on more frequently. This one probably would have listed in the $700K+ range at peak.

[CA renter]

Waiting,

There was a house at 304 Trailview Road in Encinitas which was listed for $540K.

It was a 4/2, 1980 sf.

It’s pending now, but I am seeing a few “good deals” every now and again (“good deal” meaning relative to the current and peak market prices). This one might be under contract for a higher price — there are bidding wars for the better priced homes.

They are out there, and they’re coming on more frequently. This one probably would have listed in the $700K+ range at peak.

[CA renter]

IMHO, that area of Encinitas is one of the most overpriced areas because most of the residents there are “regular people” who probably earn between $50K and $100K per household. This location has experienced some of the more dramatic price drops in Encinitas because it was the most unsustainable and is the “entry” market in Enc.

I think prices in the NE area (relative to ECR/Enc Blvd intersection) will drop to around $230K-$300K and prices in the SE area will be slightly above this (because the houses and lots are generally larger).

There have been a few better-looking listings lately, compared to peak prices, so if you are seriously considering buying right now, try to get something under $500K for a 3/2. I would highly recommend waiting at least another year, and try to time your purchase around November, as seasonal factors do make a difference.

[CA renter]

IMHO, that area of Encinitas is one of the most overpriced areas because most of the residents there are “regular people” who probably earn between $50K and $100K per household. This location has experienced some of the more dramatic price drops in Encinitas because it was the most unsustainable and is the “entry” market in Enc.

I think prices in the NE area (relative to ECR/Enc Blvd intersection) will drop to around $230K-$300K and prices in the SE area will be slightly above this (because the houses and lots are generally larger).

There have been a few better-looking listings lately, compared to peak prices, so if you are seriously considering buying right now, try to get something under $500K for a 3/2. I would highly recommend waiting at least another year, and try to time your purchase around November, as seasonal factors do make a difference.

[CA renter]

IMHO, that area of Encinitas is one of the most overpriced areas because most of the residents there are “regular people” who probably earn between $50K and $100K per household. This location has experienced some of the more dramatic price drops in Encinitas because it was the most unsustainable and is the “entry” market in Enc.

I think prices in the NE area (relative to ECR/Enc Blvd intersection) will drop to around $230K-$300K and prices in the SE area will be slightly above this (because the houses and lots are generally larger).

There have been a few better-looking listings lately, compared to peak prices, so if you are seriously considering buying right now, try to get something under $500K for a 3/2. I would highly recommend waiting at least another year, and try to time your purchase around November, as seasonal factors do make a difference.

[CA renter]

IMHO, that area of Encinitas is one of the most overpriced areas because most of the residents there are “regular people” who probably earn between $50K and $100K per household. This location has experienced some of the more dramatic price drops in Encinitas because it was the most unsustainable and is the “entry” market in Enc.

I think prices in the NE area (relative to ECR/Enc Blvd intersection) will drop to around $230K-$300K and prices in the SE area will be slightly above this (because the houses and lots are generally larger).

There have been a few better-looking listings lately, compared to peak prices, so if you are seriously considering buying right now, try to get something under $500K for a 3/2. I would highly recommend waiting at least another year, and try to time your purchase around November, as seasonal factors do make a difference.

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