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ParticipantAnd here I thought it was a little perverse when bears would gloat over losses here on this board. You guys are taking it to a whole ‘nother level.
ParticipantThe Union-Tribune online edition has rental listings that go back 7 days at any given time. Most of the management companies list at least a few of their rentals in the paper. If I have to conduct a rent survey for a house or apartment, I generally need look no farther than the newspaper. I suppose I could go to Craigslist if I was hard up for rental comps, but I’ve never had to do that yet.
ParticipantThe Union-Tribune online edition has rental listings that go back 7 days at any given time. Most of the management companies list at least a few of their rentals in the paper. If I have to conduct a rent survey for a house or apartment, I generally need look no farther than the newspaper. I suppose I could go to Craigslist if I was hard up for rental comps, but I’ve never had to do that yet.
ParticipantWhat’s the pricing like?
ParticipantWhat’s the pricing like?
ParticipantI consider annual medians to be a blunt spoon because of the different compositions of the datasets. That makes the monthly medians for the region the equivalent to using a snowshovel. Doing monthly medians by zip is like using a plow. For purposes of comparison I personally think it’s a waste of time.
The only reason I look at monthly sales by zip of a few areas is to get *an idea* of the percentages of forced sales and what trends there are on discounting and such. Even that type of analysis is anecdotal in nature, not what I’d call reliable.
I also like to follow volumes of sales and compare those numbers to similar periods in the past, but that’s also just a way to get a reading on the general trends. It’s not specific.
The way I’d get specific about a market’s pricing trends is to do a house-to-house comparison comparing the same house against its competition during the different periods of time.
ParticipantI consider annual medians to be a blunt spoon because of the different compositions of the datasets. That makes the monthly medians for the region the equivalent to using a snowshovel. Doing monthly medians by zip is like using a plow. For purposes of comparison I personally think it’s a waste of time.
The only reason I look at monthly sales by zip of a few areas is to get *an idea* of the percentages of forced sales and what trends there are on discounting and such. Even that type of analysis is anecdotal in nature, not what I’d call reliable.
I also like to follow volumes of sales and compare those numbers to similar periods in the past, but that’s also just a way to get a reading on the general trends. It’s not specific.
The way I’d get specific about a market’s pricing trends is to do a house-to-house comparison comparing the same house against its competition during the different periods of time.
ParticipantThat’s one way to “win” a debate – call all the data sources wrong and ridicule anyone who uses data in support of their arguments.
ParticipantThat’s one way to “win” a debate – call all the data sources wrong and ridicule anyone who uses data in support of their arguments.
ParticipantCypher,
I like reading what both the above realtors have to say, even though I’m not in lock step with either of them. Both of them have said things that have registered with me and influenced my opinions.
In answer to your question about homes on acreage, I think the distance to employment is the bigger factor; and I think that the outlying properties will see more effects than the properties closer to services and employment.
However, I don’t think the type of buyer who moves a young family onto a 20 acre parcel out in the outskirts is the type of buyer whose primary interest is leveraging their home into a “fantastic wealth building system”.
ParticipantCypher,
I like reading what both the above realtors have to say, even though I’m not in lock step with either of them. Both of them have said things that have registered with me and influenced my opinions.
In answer to your question about homes on acreage, I think the distance to employment is the bigger factor; and I think that the outlying properties will see more effects than the properties closer to services and employment.
However, I don’t think the type of buyer who moves a young family onto a 20 acre parcel out in the outskirts is the type of buyer whose primary interest is leveraging their home into a “fantastic wealth building system”.
ParticipantI made the mistake of thinking people would learn from their mistakes back in the 1990s. I thought after those losses nobody would be dumb enough to let that happen again. I was wrong then, so I’m going to try to avoid being wrong this time.
Individuals may be smart, but “people” are as dumb as a bag of rocks.
We *should* see a rise in popularity of econo cars, smaller homes, and less consumerism. However, the reality is that when our pop culture extols the virtues of living large there will always be enough sheeple who will be willing to do whatever it takes to live beyond their means.
ParticipantI made the mistake of thinking people would learn from their mistakes back in the 1990s. I thought after those losses nobody would be dumb enough to let that happen again. I was wrong then, so I’m going to try to avoid being wrong this time.
Individuals may be smart, but “people” are as dumb as a bag of rocks.
We *should* see a rise in popularity of econo cars, smaller homes, and less consumerism. However, the reality is that when our pop culture extols the virtues of living large there will always be enough sheeple who will be willing to do whatever it takes to live beyond their means.
ParticipantAll the builders basically have to follow suit. There aren’t enough buyers out there for these other builders to ignore these prices.
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