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ParticipantSomebody asked if the $300k number I tossed out there was for the county or for RB.
Actually, it was specific to the $575k range price in RB from early this year. Not only that, but it was a purely hypothetical number that was based on the premise of “what if this peak had topped at +25% in 2001, and the market corrected the same way it did in the 1990s?”
The market obviously didn’t top out then, this peak was far larger than a mere +25% above the long term trend, and if for some reason an RB home that sold at $575k in 01/2007 did bottom out at $300k it would just be a coincidence.
ParticipantTemecula is a planned community that was designed by the same folks who designed Irvine.
Personally, I think the Temecula/Murietta area is fairly priced in relation to the SD, OC and LA areas for which it serves as a bedroom community. Inasmuch as all those areas are horrendously overpriced I guess you could say the same for Temecula.
It’s a nice town with nice amenities, but traffic is a hassle, especially when it comes to freeway access and crossing over to get to the other side of I-15. It has the same climate as any area along the I-15 corridor; the only difference is it is subject to the inversion layer, which can bring the smog from LA in if the coastal winds aren’t blowing (mostly they do, so mostly it isn’t a problem).
The thing that Temecula has going for it in the long term is that eventually there will be a lot more employment out there. They have a pretty good sized industrial and business park area and it’s just now starting to reach 50% buildout. Once those areas get built out and mature beyond the motorsports enthusiasts and buildng contractors who have been buying those units they will grow the ranks of their professionals, most of whom will live/work locally. Sure, the lawyers and bankers and wireless engineers will still have to commute to the metro areas, but anyone who provides services for a living will be able to find employment in that area of the county.
If I didn’t surf (and seeing as how I don’t commute for work) I wouldn’t mind living in Temecula.
ParticipantTemecula is a planned community that was designed by the same folks who designed Irvine.
Personally, I think the Temecula/Murietta area is fairly priced in relation to the SD, OC and LA areas for which it serves as a bedroom community. Inasmuch as all those areas are horrendously overpriced I guess you could say the same for Temecula.
It’s a nice town with nice amenities, but traffic is a hassle, especially when it comes to freeway access and crossing over to get to the other side of I-15. It has the same climate as any area along the I-15 corridor; the only difference is it is subject to the inversion layer, which can bring the smog from LA in if the coastal winds aren’t blowing (mostly they do, so mostly it isn’t a problem).
The thing that Temecula has going for it in the long term is that eventually there will be a lot more employment out there. They have a pretty good sized industrial and business park area and it’s just now starting to reach 50% buildout. Once those areas get built out and mature beyond the motorsports enthusiasts and buildng contractors who have been buying those units they will grow the ranks of their professionals, most of whom will live/work locally. Sure, the lawyers and bankers and wireless engineers will still have to commute to the metro areas, but anyone who provides services for a living will be able to find employment in that area of the county.
If I didn’t surf (and seeing as how I don’t commute for work) I wouldn’t mind living in Temecula.
ParticipantI’m not exactly sure where in RB our original poster bought, but one of the questions she was asking was where her house would be had the price structure not blown up. As near as I can figure out, Rich’s long 50-year average price trendline intersects with pricing in late 1998 or so.
I took the liberty of looking up a few recent sales in RB in the $575,000 range, and it appears those homes were selling in the $225,000 ranges in late 1998.
It’s kind of a meaningless number, though, because the market will always swing high and swing low – those extremes are what create that trendline.
I think the better question would be where the market would have peaked out this time had this peak topped out equal to the one in 1990; that +25% mark occurred in late 2002 at about $400k or so. That means the following correction would have already bottomed out at about $300k or so in order to maintain the same trendline.
Just as a rough point of reference.
ParticipantI’m not exactly sure where in RB our original poster bought, but one of the questions she was asking was where her house would be had the price structure not blown up. As near as I can figure out, Rich’s long 50-year average price trendline intersects with pricing in late 1998 or so.
I took the liberty of looking up a few recent sales in RB in the $575,000 range, and it appears those homes were selling in the $225,000 ranges in late 1998.
It’s kind of a meaningless number, though, because the market will always swing high and swing low – those extremes are what create that trendline.
I think the better question would be where the market would have peaked out this time had this peak topped out equal to the one in 1990; that +25% mark occurred in late 2002 at about $400k or so. That means the following correction would have already bottomed out at about $300k or so in order to maintain the same trendline.
Just as a rough point of reference.
ParticipantHe’s put himself into a position that he can hold, no matter what else happens in the market. He ain’t walking away from that house.
I think that if someone viewed their home primarily in terms of shelter and considered the gains in price from the runup to be paper gains rather than real money they could avoid looking at it in terms of profit/loss, and simply look at it as shelter.
ParticipantHe’s put himself into a position that he can hold, no matter what else happens in the market. He ain’t walking away from that house.
I think that if someone viewed their home primarily in terms of shelter and considered the gains in price from the runup to be paper gains rather than real money they could avoid looking at it in terms of profit/loss, and simply look at it as shelter.
ParticipantIf you can identify a subdivision that you want to look at we could crusie through and identify models sold during both time frames for comparison.
This is easier to do for homes that were not initially sold in 2004/2005 as new from a developer because those weren’t exposed through the MLS. MLS listings provide comments about extra features and conditions that the public record sources don’t have.
San Diego County doesn’t have a lot of areas that are comprised mostly of large subdivision projects, so areas like Mira Mesa, Rancho Penasquitos and east Chula Vista are good areas to analyze. They’re large enough to generate sufficient data for comparison, almost regardless of whether the economy is up or down, and they’re new enough that there haven’t been a lot of complete remodels or uber-additions.
ParticipantIf you can identify a subdivision that you want to look at we could crusie through and identify models sold during both time frames for comparison.
This is easier to do for homes that were not initially sold in 2004/2005 as new from a developer because those weren’t exposed through the MLS. MLS listings provide comments about extra features and conditions that the public record sources don’t have.
San Diego County doesn’t have a lot of areas that are comprised mostly of large subdivision projects, so areas like Mira Mesa, Rancho Penasquitos and east Chula Vista are good areas to analyze. They’re large enough to generate sufficient data for comparison, almost regardless of whether the economy is up or down, and they’re new enough that there haven’t been a lot of complete remodels or uber-additions.
ParticipantIt just closed on June 1, 2007 at $490,000. That broker (Katie Taylor) sells a lot of the foreclosure properties.
There’s another foreclosure property for sale on that street that’s 400 SqFt larger, listed by a different broker for $550,000. My guess is that property will probably go for a skosh less because of what happened to the above sale.
Both of these properties sold for about $100,000 more in 2005, so these are some pretty significant losses.
ParticipantIt just closed on June 1, 2007 at $490,000. That broker (Katie Taylor) sells a lot of the foreclosure properties.
There’s another foreclosure property for sale on that street that’s 400 SqFt larger, listed by a different broker for $550,000. My guess is that property will probably go for a skosh less because of what happened to the above sale.
Both of these properties sold for about $100,000 more in 2005, so these are some pretty significant losses.
ParticipantI don’t have any neighbors I’d want to see topless. Most people look better in their clothes.
ParticipantI don’t have any neighbors I’d want to see topless. Most people look better in their clothes.
ParticipantYou don’t expect a car salesman to give you the real history on a car. You don’t have that expectation because regardless of what comes out of their mouth you know they are an advocate for selling that car.
Knowledge is power, and the best realty agents know the key to increasing their customer satisfation and build their reputations is to empower those clients with as much knowledge as it takes for them to feel comfortable with their decisions. Different people have different needs as far as what it takes to get to that comfort level.
As an example, if I wasn’t in the business myself I would still be a pretty cautious buyer. Not so much as a negotiation fanatic but in looking before leaping. You should see what my wife and I go through before we buy furniture or when I’m buying a car. I very much want to know what it is I’m getting, much more so than worrying about the price.
I’d want to check out the schools if I still had school aged kids, I’d want to check out freeway access and commute times, I’d want to see some sales data and drive by them to get a reading on pricing, I’d want to look at the structure and get a home inspector of my own choosing. I don’t need or want to be told; I need to be shown where I can find the information I’m seeking so I can see it for myself.
I’m pretty sure that if faced with a buyer like me, sdrealtor and SD Realtor would both recognize that I was seeking that type of hand-holding and they’d match their game plans to suit. I’m also sure that they know that the game plan that worked for me would overwhelm and throw off other types of buyers.
Regardless, I wouldn’t work with an agent who wasn’t in tune with my style; and I think this is where some of these buyers and agents fail to exercize common sense.
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