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ParticipantSan Diego entered into the price increases well ahead of the LA/OC areas, and it also entered into the decline earlier. LA is lagging right now, but it’s all ultimately connected.
Proximity to employment in this area is relatively good (although not as good as Pasadena), so it will lag in comparison to the outlying areas. It’s all connected though, and unless this trend reverses it will eventuially come to town and this area will likewise see some price declines. It’s just a matter of time.
There are no havens or safe spots that will be immune from the regional pricing trends that are currently in motion. The differences will be measured by degree, with the better areas suffering less and the worse areas suffering the most. Lancaster and Victorville are going to get it worse than Santa Monica and Westwood.
ParticipantAnd I thought the number of appraisal licenses (22,000+) was ruinously excessive.
ParticipantAnd I thought the number of appraisal licenses (22,000+) was ruinously excessive.
ParticipantI don’t think $500mil would be enough to cover the losses in Riverside County, let alone the state or the nation.
ParticipantI don’t think $500mil would be enough to cover the losses in Riverside County, let alone the state or the nation.
July 25, 2007 at 4:58 PM in reply to: LA Times – Foreclosures up 799%, Rich and Piggington.com mentioned… #67719ParticipantThis is just the latest of a series of articles Mr. Streitfield has been writing about the local market problems. He interviewed me a couple months back for a previous article – it got published on the front page, above the fold. He seems to be building quite a following.
July 25, 2007 at 4:58 PM in reply to: LA Times – Foreclosures up 799%, Rich and Piggington.com mentioned… #67785ParticipantThis is just the latest of a series of articles Mr. Streitfield has been writing about the local market problems. He interviewed me a couple months back for a previous article – it got published on the front page, above the fold. He seems to be building quite a following.
ParticipantI’m pretty sure the average foreclosure “victim” who is watching their home resell for $100,000k less than what they paid 2 years ago has a different viewpoint about SD prices than a lot of Piggington regulars.
These prices just about can’t drop 20% in a single year – there aren’t enough transactions closing to establish the benchmarks necessary to create that kind of expectation among the buyers. A 10-12% drop in a single year would be huge when you consider that our sales volumes are dwindling.
Years – not months.
ParticipantI’m pretty sure the average foreclosure “victim” who is watching their home resell for $100,000k less than what they paid 2 years ago has a different viewpoint about SD prices than a lot of Piggington regulars.
These prices just about can’t drop 20% in a single year – there aren’t enough transactions closing to establish the benchmarks necessary to create that kind of expectation among the buyers. A 10-12% drop in a single year would be huge when you consider that our sales volumes are dwindling.
Years – not months.
ParticipantI gotta go with the “slow-and-incremental” rate of change. The RE markets are relatively illiquid and they don’t respond rapidly. I think the current trend for unwinding these pricing structures will take years, not months. It’ll take significantly longer to “correct” than it did to “distort”.
ParticipantI gotta go with the “slow-and-incremental” rate of change. The RE markets are relatively illiquid and they don’t respond rapidly. I think the current trend for unwinding these pricing structures will take years, not months. It’ll take significantly longer to “correct” than it did to “distort”.
ParticipantI think the real problem is the poor and non-existent underwriting. I also think that problem extends across the entire spectrum of mortgage products, not just subprime. The fallout is going to manifest itself all across that spectrum, albeit to a lesser degree for those segments involving better borrowers and better properties.
Just as the declining market trends start on the outskirts relative to employment and work their way in, so too will they start with the weakest borrowers in the market and work their way up.
ParticipantI think the real problem is the poor and non-existent underwriting. I also think that problem extends across the entire spectrum of mortgage products, not just subprime. The fallout is going to manifest itself all across that spectrum, albeit to a lesser degree for those segments involving better borrowers and better properties.
Just as the declining market trends start on the outskirts relative to employment and work their way in, so too will they start with the weakest borrowers in the market and work their way up.
ParticipantFolks, this is what a credit contraction looks like. There is no on-off switch, just a step here and a step there. Six months go by and before you know it a lot of the sources for these programs are no longer available.
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