[betting on fall]

What’s amazing is that we had 1200 foreclosed homes in Dec. and I think less than 1000 actual sales. If Jan. has as many foreclosures, then they will likely outpace sales again.

Are we really going to see a situation where “must-sell” foreclosed homes consistently outpace actual sales?

It can’t happen- “must sells” must sell, so the number of sales must eventually at least be equal to the number of must sells. (that makes sense, right?).

What this tells me is that we are getting close to a tipping point. I think Chula Vista is already experiencing it. The “must sells” must all get down to a market clearing price, which is obviously far lower than today’s price (since inventory is building, not clearing). I think we are not far from seeing them back at rental value in some markets, and if the foreclosure pace accelerates, perhaps even priced lower (after all, just how many investors can there be?)

[betting on fall]

What’s amazing is that we had 1200 foreclosed homes in Dec. and I think less than 1000 actual sales. If Jan. has as many foreclosures, then they will likely outpace sales again.

Are we really going to see a situation where “must-sell” foreclosed homes consistently outpace actual sales?

It can’t happen- “must sells” must sell, so the number of sales must eventually at least be equal to the number of must sells. (that makes sense, right?).

What this tells me is that we are getting close to a tipping point. I think Chula Vista is already experiencing it. The “must sells” must all get down to a market clearing price, which is obviously far lower than today’s price (since inventory is building, not clearing). I think we are not far from seeing them back at rental value in some markets, and if the foreclosure pace accelerates, perhaps even priced lower (after all, just how many investors can there be?)

[betting on fall]

What’s amazing is that we had 1200 foreclosed homes in Dec. and I think less than 1000 actual sales. If Jan. has as many foreclosures, then they will likely outpace sales again.

Are we really going to see a situation where “must-sell” foreclosed homes consistently outpace actual sales?

It can’t happen- “must sells” must sell, so the number of sales must eventually at least be equal to the number of must sells. (that makes sense, right?).

What this tells me is that we are getting close to a tipping point. I think Chula Vista is already experiencing it. The “must sells” must all get down to a market clearing price, which is obviously far lower than today’s price (since inventory is building, not clearing). I think we are not far from seeing them back at rental value in some markets, and if the foreclosure pace accelerates, perhaps even priced lower (after all, just how many investors can there be?)

[betting on fall]

What’s amazing is that we had 1200 foreclosed homes in Dec. and I think less than 1000 actual sales. If Jan. has as many foreclosures, then they will likely outpace sales again.

Are we really going to see a situation where “must-sell” foreclosed homes consistently outpace actual sales?

It can’t happen- “must sells” must sell, so the number of sales must eventually at least be equal to the number of must sells. (that makes sense, right?).

What this tells me is that we are getting close to a tipping point. I think Chula Vista is already experiencing it. The “must sells” must all get down to a market clearing price, which is obviously far lower than today’s price (since inventory is building, not clearing). I think we are not far from seeing them back at rental value in some markets, and if the foreclosure pace accelerates, perhaps even priced lower (after all, just how many investors can there be?)

[betting on fall]

What’s amazing is that we had 1200 foreclosed homes in Dec. and I think less than 1000 actual sales. If Jan. has as many foreclosures, then they will likely outpace sales again.

Are we really going to see a situation where “must-sell” foreclosed homes consistently outpace actual sales?

It can’t happen- “must sells” must sell, so the number of sales must eventually at least be equal to the number of must sells. (that makes sense, right?).

What this tells me is that we are getting close to a tipping point. I think Chula Vista is already experiencing it. The “must sells” must all get down to a market clearing price, which is obviously far lower than today’s price (since inventory is building, not clearing). I think we are not far from seeing them back at rental value in some markets, and if the foreclosure pace accelerates, perhaps even priced lower (after all, just how many investors can there be?)

[betting on fall]

The Yokohama court house is carved into the side of a hill and its backyard is basically a 30 foot wall of rock and dirt. Not the kind of place you want to live if you have any fear of landslides or earthquakes.

We were going to look inside, but wife saw this and said no way. If it was 100k less and without this backyard issue, I think it would be a good deal.

The nice pool/view deck is side yard.

[betting on fall]

The Yokohama court house is carved into the side of a hill and its backyard is basically a 30 foot wall of rock and dirt. Not the kind of place you want to live if you have any fear of landslides or earthquakes.

We were going to look inside, but wife saw this and said no way. If it was 100k less and without this backyard issue, I think it would be a good deal.

The nice pool/view deck is side yard.

[betting on fall]

The Yokohama court house is carved into the side of a hill and its backyard is basically a 30 foot wall of rock and dirt. Not the kind of place you want to live if you have any fear of landslides or earthquakes.

We were going to look inside, but wife saw this and said no way. If it was 100k less and without this backyard issue, I think it would be a good deal.

The nice pool/view deck is side yard.

[betting on fall]

The Yokohama court house is carved into the side of a hill and its backyard is basically a 30 foot wall of rock and dirt. Not the kind of place you want to live if you have any fear of landslides or earthquakes.

We were going to look inside, but wife saw this and said no way. If it was 100k less and without this backyard issue, I think it would be a good deal.

The nice pool/view deck is side yard.

[betting on fall]

The Yokohama court house is carved into the side of a hill and its backyard is basically a 30 foot wall of rock and dirt. Not the kind of place you want to live if you have any fear of landslides or earthquakes.

We were going to look inside, but wife saw this and said no way. If it was 100k less and without this backyard issue, I think it would be a good deal.

The nice pool/view deck is side yard.

[betting on fall]

I think this is no big deal, for the following reasons:

1. Today, Cielo, Bridges and those other places (and the Covenant) are all unincorporated parts of San Diego County. If the Covenant becomes incorporated as a town, those other places still remain what they are today- unincorporated parts of San Diego county. Nothing becomes part of the City of Escondido until the boundary of Escondido changes.

2. Town boundaries don’t change school district boundaries. One town can’t just say its schools won’t take kids anymore, forcing them into a neighboring school district that was never planned for them. The boards of the impacted school districts need to agree to the changes.

3. Creating a town does not change a zip code. Only the post office does.

[betting on fall]

I think this is no big deal, for the following reasons:

1. Today, Cielo, Bridges and those other places (and the Covenant) are all unincorporated parts of San Diego County. If the Covenant becomes incorporated as a town, those other places still remain what they are today- unincorporated parts of San Diego county. Nothing becomes part of the City of Escondido until the boundary of Escondido changes.

2. Town boundaries don’t change school district boundaries. One town can’t just say its schools won’t take kids anymore, forcing them into a neighboring school district that was never planned for them. The boards of the impacted school districts need to agree to the changes.

3. Creating a town does not change a zip code. Only the post office does.

[betting on fall]

I think this is no big deal, for the following reasons:

1. Today, Cielo, Bridges and those other places (and the Covenant) are all unincorporated parts of San Diego County. If the Covenant becomes incorporated as a town, those other places still remain what they are today- unincorporated parts of San Diego county. Nothing becomes part of the City of Escondido until the boundary of Escondido changes.

2. Town boundaries don’t change school district boundaries. One town can’t just say its schools won’t take kids anymore, forcing them into a neighboring school district that was never planned for them. The boards of the impacted school districts need to agree to the changes.

3. Creating a town does not change a zip code. Only the post office does.

[betting on fall]

I think this is no big deal, for the following reasons:

1. Today, Cielo, Bridges and those other places (and the Covenant) are all unincorporated parts of San Diego County. If the Covenant becomes incorporated as a town, those other places still remain what they are today- unincorporated parts of San Diego county. Nothing becomes part of the City of Escondido until the boundary of Escondido changes.

2. Town boundaries don’t change school district boundaries. One town can’t just say its schools won’t take kids anymore, forcing them into a neighboring school district that was never planned for them. The boards of the impacted school districts need to agree to the changes.

3. Creating a town does not change a zip code. Only the post office does.

[betting on fall]

I think this is no big deal, for the following reasons:

1. Today, Cielo, Bridges and those other places (and the Covenant) are all unincorporated parts of San Diego County. If the Covenant becomes incorporated as a town, those other places still remain what they are today- unincorporated parts of San Diego county. Nothing becomes part of the City of Escondido until the boundary of Escondido changes.

2. Town boundaries don’t change school district boundaries. One town can’t just say its schools won’t take kids anymore, forcing them into a neighboring school district that was never planned for them. The boards of the impacted school districts need to agree to the changes.

3. Creating a town does not change a zip code. Only the post office does.

[Author]

Posts