[betting on fall]

I think the real danger is if enterprising crooks (or out of work contractors) go into these homes and steal copper pipes, sinks, faucets, wiring, etc. I am sure several thousands $$$ of stuff can be ripped out of a home and sold pretty easily. It then would be far more expensive to replace it, and I don’t see the banks being too excited to pay for it.

[betting on fall]

If these are the numbers, then it might make sense- if the couple planned to stay a while. People always seem to forget about the sales commissions and points on loans and other costs of buying and selling. And I don’t know of any young couples that plan on staying in a one bedroom condo for long.

[betting on fall]

If these are the numbers, then it might make sense- if the couple planned to stay a while. People always seem to forget about the sales commissions and points on loans and other costs of buying and selling. And I don’t know of any young couples that plan on staying in a one bedroom condo for long.

[betting on fall]

If these are the numbers, then it might make sense- if the couple planned to stay a while. People always seem to forget about the sales commissions and points on loans and other costs of buying and selling. And I don’t know of any young couples that plan on staying in a one bedroom condo for long.

[betting on fall]

There is definitely a massive industry in San Diego fully dependant on real estate transactions. How many real estate, loan, title and escrow companies took over prime office real estate in the last few years? Check out the center of Hillcrest. There is even an escrow company where my old late night pizza place used to be on Garnet Ave in PB. How can an escrow company justify renting among the bars on Garnet?

If sales fall back to 1995 levels, and refi’s dry up, these industries need to scale back to 1995 levels- and probably abandon those fancy new digs and about ½ to 2/3rd of their employees.

[betting on fall]

There is definitely a massive industry in San Diego fully dependant on real estate transactions. How many real estate, loan, title and escrow companies took over prime office real estate in the last few years? Check out the center of Hillcrest. There is even an escrow company where my old late night pizza place used to be on Garnet Ave in PB. How can an escrow company justify renting among the bars on Garnet?

If sales fall back to 1995 levels, and refi’s dry up, these industries need to scale back to 1995 levels- and probably abandon those fancy new digs and about ½ to 2/3rd of their employees.

[betting on fall]

There is definitely a massive industry in San Diego fully dependant on real estate transactions. How many real estate, loan, title and escrow companies took over prime office real estate in the last few years? Check out the center of Hillcrest. There is even an escrow company where my old late night pizza place used to be on Garnet Ave in PB. How can an escrow company justify renting among the bars on Garnet?

If sales fall back to 1995 levels, and refi’s dry up, these industries need to scale back to 1995 levels- and probably abandon those fancy new digs and about ½ to 2/3rd of their employees.

[betting on fall]

Property taxes are that high because of hefty mello roos- $200 or $300 a month.

Little Lake Street is just a small example of what is happening all over that zip code. I posted a couple weeks back about one house near there that sold new for $900k in 2005- and all the neighbors did as well- and now it is an REO at under 700K that still won’t sell.

I think about half of Otay Ranch was built after 2004, and I would suspect that either now or by the end of the year, all those people will have lost money. But I have some friends there who bought in 2002 at around $100 per sf. They will come out OK.
Prices just shot up down there in the bubble years- far more than in the central san diego markets I follow.

[betting on fall]

Property taxes are that high because of hefty mello roos- $200 or $300 a month.

Little Lake Street is just a small example of what is happening all over that zip code. I posted a couple weeks back about one house near there that sold new for $900k in 2005- and all the neighbors did as well- and now it is an REO at under 700K that still won’t sell.

I think about half of Otay Ranch was built after 2004, and I would suspect that either now or by the end of the year, all those people will have lost money. But I have some friends there who bought in 2002 at around $100 per sf. They will come out OK.
Prices just shot up down there in the bubble years- far more than in the central san diego markets I follow.

[betting on fall]

Property taxes are that high because of hefty mello roos- $200 or $300 a month.

Little Lake Street is just a small example of what is happening all over that zip code. I posted a couple weeks back about one house near there that sold new for $900k in 2005- and all the neighbors did as well- and now it is an REO at under 700K that still won’t sell.

I think about half of Otay Ranch was built after 2004, and I would suspect that either now or by the end of the year, all those people will have lost money. But I have some friends there who bought in 2002 at around $100 per sf. They will come out OK.
Prices just shot up down there in the bubble years- far more than in the central san diego markets I follow.

[betting on fall]

This is what makes me laugh when everyone says “the hedgies are going to get killed” There is a winner and loser in every trade, and these days there are probably more hedge funds winning bets against housing than there are hedge funds that are losing in housing. Yes, some will go down in flames, but plenty are getting richer than ever.

If anything kills the big hedge fund industry we have today, it would be if banks stopped lending them tons of money to make their bets. If hedge funds can’t leverage their bets 5x or 10x, their returns may start looking much more average, and their huge management fees would not be worth it.

[betting on fall]

This is what makes me laugh when everyone says “the hedgies are going to get killed” There is a winner and loser in every trade, and these days there are probably more hedge funds winning bets against housing than there are hedge funds that are losing in housing. Yes, some will go down in flames, but plenty are getting richer than ever.

If anything kills the big hedge fund industry we have today, it would be if banks stopped lending them tons of money to make their bets. If hedge funds can’t leverage their bets 5x or 10x, their returns may start looking much more average, and their huge management fees would not be worth it.

[betting on fall]

This is what makes me laugh when everyone says “the hedgies are going to get killed” There is a winner and loser in every trade, and these days there are probably more hedge funds winning bets against housing than there are hedge funds that are losing in housing. Yes, some will go down in flames, but plenty are getting richer than ever.

If anything kills the big hedge fund industry we have today, it would be if banks stopped lending them tons of money to make their bets. If hedge funds can’t leverage their bets 5x or 10x, their returns may start looking much more average, and their huge management fees would not be worth it.

[betting on fall]

Countrywide has the properties that are foreclosed and ready for resale on its website: http://www.countrywide.com/purchase/f_reo.asp

There is a blog that has been charting the growth in the number of listings at: countrywide-foreclosures.blogspot.com

If they file for bankruptcy, a court would technically be supervising operations and ensuring that assets are preserved, or at least disposed of in a manner that most benefits the creditors. I suspect that would mean the continued one at a time market price sales, rather than bulk discount sales to others.

If they do file, I would expect the company would exit the loan writing business, but loan servicing- and the related work of disposing REOs- would continue unchanged. Just like the airlines still operate even when in bankruptcy court. If something is producing cash, its worth preserving.

One more thing- It’s not clear to me if Countrywide is truly the owner of record on all those houses, or if they are disposing of them for the bondholders for whom they do the mortgage servicing. Clearly if Countrywide does not really own all these houses, its not for them to decide exactly how to get rid of them.

[betting on fall]

Countrywide has the properties that are foreclosed and ready for resale on its website: http://www.countrywide.com/purchase/f_reo.asp

There is a blog that has been charting the growth in the number of listings at: countrywide-foreclosures.blogspot.com

If they file for bankruptcy, a court would technically be supervising operations and ensuring that assets are preserved, or at least disposed of in a manner that most benefits the creditors. I suspect that would mean the continued one at a time market price sales, rather than bulk discount sales to others.

If they do file, I would expect the company would exit the loan writing business, but loan servicing- and the related work of disposing REOs- would continue unchanged. Just like the airlines still operate even when in bankruptcy court. If something is producing cash, its worth preserving.

One more thing- It’s not clear to me if Countrywide is truly the owner of record on all those houses, or if they are disposing of them for the bondholders for whom they do the mortgage servicing. Clearly if Countrywide does not really own all these houses, its not for them to decide exactly how to get rid of them.

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