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bearishgurl
Participant[quote=harvey][quote=cvmom]Sugar Bowl. Good for beginners and cheaper than many. Side benefit: it is also right next to Royal Gorge, and we like to cross-country ski as well.[/quote]
Sugar Bowl is easy and casual.
Donner Ski Ranch is a fun little place also. Haven’t been in years, but it used to be really inexpensive.
If you are taking young kids or first-timers, there’s no need to pay for a big resort.
I’m not sure how a “top ten” list helps the OP. Alyeska is kinda far from Reno.[/quote]
My kids actually learned to ski at Snow Summit in Big Bear and Mammoth. However, they did not take lessons. We taught them ourselves.
Participant[quote=flyer]Here’s the Forbes Top Ten for 2016. . .
Jackson Hole
Snowbird
Whistler
Alta
Vail
Telluride
Alyeska
Aspen
Grand Targhee
Park CityIf you love to ski, gotta try them all at least once. We try to stay with family and friends whenever possible.[/quote]Awesome list, flyer! I’ve skied 6 of your aforementioned resorts, some multiple times. Telluride is my favorite, followed by Steamboat and Heavenly (both not on your list). Of course, I am not a beginner but have enjoyed the above slopes, and more, nonetheless.
Congrats to you if you have secured an “Epic Pass” for 2015-16. My kids will not be available to ski with me this winter so I did not buy one this year.
Participant[quote=livinincali][quote=bearishgurl]
I don’t think SD County’s population increase (if any) is actually due to Americans from other CA counties and other states moving here.
[/quote]Really. We’re military town. There’s thousands of Marines at Miramar and their families that weren’t born here. There’s tons of defense contractors that hire those former military members in this city. I know far more people in their 20’s and 30’s that weren’t born here compared to those that were born here. Go to a bar on a Sunday and see how many youngish people are supporting teams other than the Chargers. This city has grown a ton over the past 50 years and a lot of it is from people that weren’t born here and were born in other American cities.[/quote]
Active duty military and their families (a very LARGE percentage of who live on base or in Navy-owned housing) are a finite portion of SD County’s population that never grows. One sponsor leaves for another duty station (with or without a family in tow) and another sponsor of same rank (or nearly same rank) with or without a family in tow takes their place (moves here from another locale). Duty stations today last anywhere from 2 years to 5 years (max). I would say that more than half (possibly 2/3) of sponsors who have families live on base or in Navy-owned housing so they don’t need market-rate housing in SD County. Single active duty personnel usually live shipboard or in furnished apts on base. Due to lack of dependents, this group doesn’t get BAQ and VHA (or whatever the housing allowance is called today) to assist with market-rate rent payments in non-military housing.
Hence, the active-duty military population in SD County (and everywhere there are military bases) is “stable.” It does not affect the population numbers one way or the other.
Active duty military who end up retiring here to work for a defense contractor already own a house. If they did not already own a house, they and their families could not afford to stay after retirement when they are evicted from base housing or lose their HUGE housing allowances (market-rate renters)! Those new military retirees who get hired by a local defense contractor aren’t new to SD …. they were already here and are NOT looking for house. Some of them have owned a home here for nearly the entire length of their Navy careers and rented it out whenever they (and their families) transferred out of SD on change of station orders … with the eye to retiring in SD when the time came.
In short, active duty military personnel and their families (as well as newly retired military personnel) are a “wash” to the population (don’t affect it) and thus are not “house shopping.” They are replacing others who left (both in military-owned housing and market rate rental housing) or they always had ties to SD (family and/or real estate).
A military member doesn’t retire from the military out of Tinker Field in Oklahoma, for example, and move their entire family to SD for a defense job …. sans a “housing allowance,” available ONLY to active duty personnel. I don’t care if the sponsor was an O-5 pay rank. This just doesn’t happen, folks.
edit: I forgot to add that a retiring military member gets one “free” move of their household goods (weight based on rank) back to the locale of the MEPPS station where they signed up to join the military. It’s a use it or lose it proposition. The vast majority DO use it …. straight out of the military quarters they and their families are being evicted from.
Participant[quote=FlyerInHi]Bg, even with stagnant or decreasing population we need to build. In Japan, they still build despite population getting old.
In with the new, out with the old. That’s the way it is.
Quality is life is up. That’s why people still come here and house values are up. The market does not lie.[/quote]
brian, I am ALL FOR “In with the new, OUT with the old.” That’s considered “infill building.”
What I am fundamentally against is MORE SPRAWL created in outer lizardia.
I don’t think SD County’s population increase (if any) is actually due to Americans from other CA counties and other states moving here.
It is likely from foreign in-migration and births over deaths coming mostly from our existing immigrant families. Most of those families (esp Asians, who lived their lives in their home countries in MUCH MORE crowded conditions than we have) rate SD as having a good quality of life today because it IS good …. to them. SD County doesn’t look nearly as good to the well-established US citizen (in and out of state) living in their paid-for homes within their own (roomy and bucolic) settings in far more well-planned counties than San Diego.
Participant[quote=no_such_reality]Please enlighten us as to whom you think all those state of the art tract homes were built for in the 70s, 80s, and 90s?[/quote]
NSR, if this question is directed at me, I can tell you that SFRs of this era were not “state of the art.” They were built with linoleum, formica counters, t-lock shingle and wood roofs, wood garage doors (until the early nineties) and had mostly cheap carpeting installed throughout.
In addition, there were far fewer subdivisions built, they were much smaller subdivisions and were built 3-6 homes to an acre. The “master planned community” concept with thousands of units (8-18 SFRs to an acre) did not take hold in SD County until 1987 …. AFTER the first CFDs were formed in Eastlake Shores (Chula Vista). By that time, the boomers were in their mid-late 30’s and most already owned a home (most boomers married young and bought their first home in their early to late 20’s). There were only 2-3 “work centers” in the county and most workers commuted no more than 30-35 mins to/from work.
All cities in SD County, plus SD County should have issued building moratoriums in 1992, after all the land was developed which was within CFD’s formed after the Mello Roos Community Facilities Act was passed in 1982. Our quality of life would have been so much better for it. Other jurisdictions (examples: NorCal, Oregon, Washington cities/counties and Boulder, CO) who have managed to enact permanent residential building moratoriums before the horse escaped out the barn door can still offer their residents a fabulous quality of life today. We can’t because we are bulging with people, creating a big headache every day for the worker bee, especially. We have only our esteemed leaders (past and present) to thank for this. They have sold out America’s Finest City (and surrounds) to Big Development due to their own greed. It ended up getting them nowhere because their sphere of influence (number of employees “under” them) is actually LESS today than it was in 2001!
Participant[quote=FlyerInHi]BG. If you wanr to preserve open space and natural resources, you allow high density.
The way we have it now, we have sprawl which destroys open spaces.[/quote]Exactly, brian, “The way we have it now . . .” It’s already done. The horse left out of the open barn door decades ago, right in front of our “esteemed leader’s” noses. We cannot now unring the bell.
Millenia, if approved as shown in the developer’s (pipe dream) gallery, is an example of the creation of MORE sprawl! It is a development on the very edge of Chula Vista …. a long stone’s throw from Otay Valley Rd/Main St, which is Chula Vista’s border with South SD. I posted earlier that Palm Ave (Otay Mesa-SD) is the next exit in I-805 but in fact there is one more Chula Vista exit within one mile of the massive proposed Millenia residential/commercial project (nearly to the scale of the now “scaled down” One Paseo in Carmel Valley). The project’s commercial area copies the design of Otay Ranch Mall with the same nose-in parking but sans the anchor stores that our brethren directly to the south of us love to shop in :=0
Knocking down structures on a lot with a 50+ year-old one-story court apt complex in OB or North Park (SD), plus maybe 2-3 more adjacent residential lots and building something like Millenia (on a smaller scale of course) is considered “infill” and NOT SPRAWL! It could also be considered the “highest and best use” of land which is already zoned multifamily and already has utilities brought to it and services (police/fire/ambulance and public works) assigned to it! It would also draw well-heeled patrons from other parts of the city to shop and dine, especially if it included a pkg garage (more likely in OB than North Park).
The location of Millenia isn’t going to draw anyone out of Otay Ranch except those residents’ occasional guests and a few Mexican shoppers who spent the day shopping at the outlets in San Ysidro or Otay Ranch Mall. It is a large flat acreage in the midst of snake and lizardland which is also a coyote crossing. Utilities are already brought to the north side (mall side, across the street) but not to any future-created streets below (and easements, due to the undoubtedly higher proposed density, if approved).
Otay Ranch Mall has had a hard enough time surviving in the 8-9 years it has been built (it opened the last quarter of 2006, IIRC). It has the THIRD Macys in South County as an anchor with REI (next closest REI was Mira Mesa) and we probably didn’t need another Macys down here. Many of the shops in Otay Ranch Mall today are not the same shops which were there at its opening (it started out with mostly higher-end stores and several of them didn’t fly at that location). If Millenia is planning on attracting higher-end shops to fill its retail space, I think they’ll have a tough time getting them interested in that location.
Yes, as dense as it is (it is VERY dense, folks), Otay Ranch subdivisions and shopping look pleasing, especially to younger Gen X and Millenials, who appreciate new construction. But looks are deceiving. The vast majority of its original homeowners who are still there bought new in Otay Ranch between 2003 and 2007. (1st subdivision to be sold there was about late 2000/2001.) This group saw their home values plummet up to 60% in SFRs and closer to 70% in condos by 2008, experiencing the highest home depreciation of all time within the county of SD. It was so bad that the effects of its depreciation reverberated throughout the city, even affecting the values in older neighborhoods of Chula Vista situated 6-12 miles away where the majority of homes were actually paid off! Those thousands of owners in Otay Ranch who hung on WERE hurting and are STILL hurting because the assessor has now raised Chula Vista assessments en masse back up to 2004/05 levels pursuant to Prop 8. Otay Ranch residents now have a raised ad valoream tax to contend with for FY 15/16 PLUS Mello Roos of 1.4% to 1.7% of assessed value (this area has among the most expensive CFDs in the county) PLUS monthly dues for 1-2 HOA’s to pay for! In addition, their toll road (to get to/from work daily) costs approx $90 month for advance payment of approx 20 days of use (round trip).
I have a good memory and will surmise that many Otay Ranch homeowners who hung on during the “great recession” (to keep their kids in school) are now paying on modified mortgages of 40 years at 2-4% fixed, which included all their missed interest payments when their last mortgage “exploded” on them and they defaulted. Thus, many of them are still upside-down today.
These were younger working families who bought into Otay Ranch, NOT the well-heeled who paid cash for their homes! This group typically doesn’t have the money to dine at five-star restaurants and shop at boutiques due to being heavily in debt to their homes (mortgages and very high taxes and fees, in addition to the expenses of raising a family).
I don’t feel that this pie-in-the-sky plan for Millenia pencils out very well in that location and will only add thousands more vehicles to our surface streets every day (to avoid the toll road, like their predecessors have been doing for the better part of ten years).
There are much better locations in the county to do a (successful) project like this ….. as INFILL.
ParticipantIn short, what I was trying to convey here is:
A CC graduate with a 3.0 GPA (or close), practically speaking, is not “guaranteed” a seat at their local UC/CSU campus or even guaranteed a seat in either the quarter/semester immediately after their CC graduation. It might take an additional semester or two to successfully gain admission, depending on how many campuses they apply to.
UC does not guarantee an ELC applicant admission to any particular UC campus. ELC admissions are essentially by lottery and these applicants are offered admission to a campus which has room for them in their 1st or 2nd choices of the degree programs they selected on their application.
UC/CSU admissions are essentially a “numbers game” today so your student needs to apply to as many campuses as they are willing to attend IF their HS GPA is at least a 3.0 and they have met all the A-G reqs in HS. If your student qualifies for an application fee waiver … all the better :=)
Participant[quote=doofrat] . . . Is there a problem transferring from Community to UC that didn’t exist before?
And unless you go to Ivy League does it really matter which school you attend?[/quote]
Yes, doofrat, there IS a problem transferring from a CA CC to a CA public university. As of Fall 2013, the CSU and UC will only consider for acceptance a transferring-in junior who has taken a strictly prescribed set of GEs in CC and earned an Associate of Arts Transfer (AAT) or Associate of Science Transfer (AST) degree, depending on which field of major they intend to pursue at university, which MUST be ascertained PRIOR to entering CC. CSU/UC applicants who already have occupational degrees from years past (i.e. Assoc of Business) will not be considered for acceptance until they have the new required GE credits from CC under their belt required for entry. Mid-year freshman or sophomore applicants are no longer accepted at a CA public university. Once a student starts (and commits to an associate degree program) at a CA CC, they need to finish an AAS or AST degree prior to applying to the UC and/or CSU.
see: http://adegreewithaguarantee.com/
The AAT and AST roadmaps were implemented first by the CSU to boost readiness for upper-division courses, and, as a result, boost graduation rates.
Practically speaking, the AAT and AST are not easy to obtain (especially within two years) at CA CCs situated in heavily-populated urban areas. It isn’t easy to get the needed classes on these campuses because every single FT student there who came straight out of HS is trying to get the exact same classes and the CC’s aren’t as well-funded as they should be to have the class offerings to accomplish this goal. Therefore, I believe that HS graduates staying behind in a parents’ back bdrm to attend local CC are at a great disadvantage to their brethren who left to attend university as a freshman (SDSU is the MOST impacted campus of the 23 CSUs and admits only about 9% of freshman applicants overall).
In short, if your SD-County based HS senior or CC sophomore is eyeing a CA public university and their families cannot afford a private college (which isn’t always “better,” IMO), they need to apply to 6-8 CSU campuses, or, if qualified, to at least 4 UC campuses (preferably more). If your student’s GPA is among the top 9% of their HS class, the UC offers guaranteed placement at a UC campus but bear in mind that he/she may only be offered UC Merced.
If your kid’s offer(s) are from podunk CA inland campus(es), tell them to TAKE IT and DO NOT attempt to transfer out as a junior! Your student should humbly TAKE whatever offers they get. If offered more than one campus, your student needs to MAKE A QUICK DECISION and DON’T LOOK BACK!
Each UC/CSU campus is ever so slightly different in their curriculum so your student will undoubtedly lose credits if they try to transfer out as an incoming junior, costing time and money. ESPecially if they are transferring from a quarter-system campus to a semester-system campus or vice versa.
The goal is to live reasonably frugal and finish with minimal or no debt, even if it takes five years, which CAN BE DONE TODAY with a part-time job, parent/relative’s assistance and financial aid in the form of scholarships and grants which do not need to be paid back.
I don’t care if your kid graduates HS with a 4.27 GPA and 34 AP credits. Applying at CA public universities is a crapshoot for ALL applicants. The goal today is to GET ADMITTED, STAY THERE, STAY the course and finish your chosen degree progam.
If your kid’s goal is CA public university admission, starting their college “career” at a CA CC will put your kid way behind the eight-ball, IMO, UNLESS your kid’s CC is in a small town or a fairly rural area. However, the ROP program at most CC’s is expanding. If your kid wants to go into HVAC, for example, then CC ROP is the way to go. Your kid will be able to finish with a Certificate or AS and get a journey-level position within 1-2 years of starting CC.
Participant[quote=The-Shoveler]The difference is the whole region (not just the coastal area’s) are becoming a increasingly growth averse a lot more than it ever was in the past.
We are building about 1/2 Normal pace after coming off a period of almost no building for the last 5 years.
Then you got the largest generation in history turning 24-25 or so.
Whatever it’s going to be tight.[/quote]
The 24-25 year-old set . . . as well as the late-twenties set are just getting started in their careers. This group doesn’t mind living in rental units with roommates (even multiple roommates).
They’re not yet looking to buy or rent a place on their own. At least not in coastal CA, where there is good money to be made for a finite amount of years/decades. They need to make (and save) money while the getting is good.
Both of these age groups in rural or semi-rural “flyover country” are more likely to be already coupled up … with kids. But housing is much cheaper there.
CA doesn’t need anymore housing. Millenials need to get their heads on straight and accept the existing housing on offer in the locale they are working in …. just like SV workers have had to do since the beginning of the “dot.com era.”
Boomers accepted the housing on offer in their respective locales in an era of very high interest rates and nearly zero-percent residential building. Millenials can do this IF they are able to lose their pervasive “entitlement mentality.”
Participant[quote=The-Shoveler]We still have rising living standards (average house size still keeps growing every year),
SoCal (and Nor-Cal really) are just becoming Growth adverse.
Most other states don’t have that problem.
It’s just here for the most part.[/quote]
Shoveler, ALL of coastal CA has ALWAYS been “growth averse.” It has always been much more difficult for a developer to obtain subdivision permits in coastal CA counties than in 90% of the rest of the nation.
And rightly so. There IS only ONE CA coast and it SHOULD, for the most part, be preserved as much as humanly possible.
OTOH, there is still a lot of room in most of the flat states of “flyover country” but most of these cities are now suffering from issuing too many subdivision permits haphazardly in the past and lacking services for them (police, fire, public works, etc). For example, Oklahoma City is now a whopping 68 miles wide and over 30 miles long. The state has no Mello Roos or any bonds in place to build infrastructure for newer areas so those isolated subdivisions are virtually in the boonie plains whose residents have very slow response times in an emergency.
Just because other states’ jurisdictions have allowed residential building ad infinitum in past decades doesn’t make it wise … or right. Only time will tell what happens to the subdivisions on the edges of OKC. They could end up as ghost towns. There’s talk of the Big Five oil companies conducting massive local layoffs if prices don’t pick up soon.
Participant[quote=The-Shoveler]If you get just a recession prices might drop 10 or 15%, OK that would help, but it would be temporary and not enough for most to really feel affordable.
Without building (or over-building really) you are still left with more people than housing.[/quote]
Shoveler, we are NEVER left with more people than housing …. that is, unless our “excess people” are all living on the street.
Take Silicon Valley, for example. Those workers who work there but cannot afford to live there (or who cannot afford to live in what they want to live in there) move across the bridge(s) to more “affordable” housing and commute into SV every workday. Those SV cities do not have “more people.” They have only the people who were longtime owners and bought “cheap” or the people who are willing and able to pay the price to live there. The rest of SV’s workers who are its “aspiring citizens” live elsewhere.
It’s all as it should be … by design. If all of SD County’s housing is eventually absorbed and we essentially have a 0% vacancy rate (unlikely), we will not have “more people” (unless they are homeless). We will have only the amount of people we can house. Any people who want to live in SD County close to work but choose not to pay the price or accept the housing on offer which they can afford here will live in another county (Riverside?) and commute to their jobs in SD County every day.
ParticipantI’ve posted this here before but it bears repeating. Make SURE your HS Senior does NOT apply to any CA public university campus undeclared! If they don’t yet know what they want to major in, they need to choose something as close as possible to their interests (and tailor their major to each campus they apply to) so as not to lose any GE credits if they change their major slightly in their late freshman or early soph year.
Participant[quote=flyer]I completely understand that there are many ways we could make higher education less expensive and more accessible, but I also think we have cultivated a society in which a growing number of people think they are simply entitled to everything they want in life (think housing) with no strings attached.
Our kids weren’t interested in tech as careers, and have done well in medicine, law and business. Yet, over 50% of the kids who finished college (at great schools with great degrees) when our kids did, still haven’t found career positions in their chosen fields.
Many have been offered jobs in places they don’t want to go, so that’s another big problem they are having. Apparently, their parents didn’t inform them that the diploma does not come with guarantees.
In general, I think you are going to see greater and greater numbers of disillusioned young people–even those with degrees–in the world when they realize the realities of life are not what they expected.[/quote]
My kids weren’t interested in tech fields, either, flyer, and so far, they’ve done just fine.
I DO believe that the bulk of student loan money that a public university student receives is likely spent on “upscale” housing and Starbucks, etc. In other words, they got themselves into the debt they’re now in post-graduation because they made the wrong “lifestyle choices” while a FT student. It was unnecessary debt and these students should be required to pay it all back.
I told my youngest that if, per chance, they should be offered their first accounting job in Kansas City upon graduation, to TAKE IT! They can always come back to Cali after getting experience (and references) under their belt. (My youngest wants to get an internship in LA and parlay that reference into a job there and that may yet happen.)
When parents spoil their 20-something year-old still living in the ($1M+) family home along the CA coast by preparing their meals and doing their laundry, it’s pretty difficult for that “kid” to become “accustomed” to living the frugal life of a college student or to be motivated to get their own apt which they can AFFORD. OF COURSE, they’re going to have unrealistically high expectations for everything in life (weather and calibur of home they will “accept”, etc).
November 13, 2015 at 4:47 PM in reply to: Millenia (Is it truly the “Next thing” The South County is looking for?) #791305Participant[quote=Svile1604]Hello fellow Piggington subscribers….The project is known as Millenia (Milleniasd.com). A luxury apartment section of the community is almost finished. The website makes claims that it will bring the South County a new heart, and will be the next great place in San Diego. As the website tosses around “San Diego” and “South County” quite abit, I suspect they are wanting to stray away from using “Chula Vista” in their pitch.. . .[/quote]
I just had a chance to peruse the developer’s pipe dream of a gallery:
There’s is even a drawing of a city bus in the mix delivering shoppers to an “upscale” shopper street scene.
Um, City (yes, this IS Chula Vista, no matter whose “sales pitch” we use) cut their bus service wa-a-a-ay back about two years ago and CVT’s former level of service still has not resumed. Where are all these shoppers going to come from (in the shadow of the Otay Ranch Center which already has this style of shopping) to make this project a success??
Uh . . . using “Chula Vista” as opposed to Otay Mesa (in SD proper and just a stone’s throw away from this proposed project) in the developer’s description might be preferable, IMO. The next exit on I-805 is Palm Ave (less than 1 mile from Millenia, as the crow flies), which has had big box stores and chain stores in a long strip mall for about 13-14 years. Residents in that area want fast food, Kaiser and big box discount stores, NOT upscale specialty stores, private doctors and sit-down restaurants (requiring tipping). Mexican shoppers gravitate to the 3 Macy’s and 2 JCP’s (dept stores) in South County on the weekends for coupon sales and typically buy their dry goods (clothing, shoes, bedding, hshld items, etc) in bulk. If this ambitious project is approved in its entirety, it will be hard-pressed to get regular bus service from the trolley line (essential to attract many Mexican shoppers). Shoppers and diners who reside in other parts of the county aren’t going to drive down there for “destination” shopping/dining because they have their own well-established places to shop and dine. And “boomers” (LOL Shoveler and FIH) have many, many options on where to retire …. namely, they can retire in Rosarito or Ensenada, right on the beach for LESS than the cost of a one-bdrm sh!thole in “Millenia” with shared walls and a 1.7% in MR bonds attached to it. This group can even retire in San Felipe or Cabo in a larger home than the typical beach house closer to the border for LESS.
I’m having a hard time seeing WHO this developer is trying to attract to a project like this. The wheel has already been invented down there and longtime owners in Otay Ranch are only JUST THIS YEAR inching out of being upside down on their homes.
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