[bearishgurl]

[quote=deadzone]Unlike in sdr’s world (where everybody is rich and life is a utopia), I don’t believe everybody is loaded with cash. Of course there are people with cash to put down 20-30% on a non-conforming loan. But, you guys are extremely naive to think that everbody who purchased in the price range had the means to pay 20-30% down. They didn’t have to, so by definition it left the door open for a huge pool of buyers without that kind of cash. Well now it looks like that door will be shut again. It will have significant impact no question.[/quote]

deadzone, I don’t believe ALL homebuyers shopping in the $600K + range are all flush with cash, either. I was referring to those buying in niche coastal markets of predominately custom properties, such as Monterey (ex LJ and DM in SD County).

In less-desirable inland tracts, especially those encumbered by CFD’s, I think many unqualified buyers quickly got in over their heads buying in the over $600K range when they were helped by developers’ designated loan officers (were offered incentives to use them) who put them in 80/20’s, 80/10/10’s, 30 due in 5/7’s, I/O’s and balloon mtg vehicles. Often, there were never any surrounding comps to begin with to command the prices the developers were asking. They just attempted to create their OWN sales comps by making it easy for an unsophisticated buyer to pay top dollar for a house on a substandard lot (often less than 5000 sf).

Yes, I believe the value of inland tracts (east of I-5 in SD County) where the recent sold comps are currently over about $680K could be affected by lower FNMA/FDMC conforming limits. I do NOT believe highly desirable custom areas in coastal zones will be affected, however, as the buyers of each of these types of properties are completely different animals.

edit: I don’t think the lower conforming limit will affect buyers of acreage either (ex East County). This type of buyer is typically 50+ years old and often has plans for new construction or a major gut/rehab prior to even making an offer.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=deadzone]Unlike in sdr’s world (where everybody is rich and life is a utopia), I don’t believe everybody is loaded with cash. Of course there are people with cash to put down 20-30% on a non-conforming loan. But, you guys are extremely naive to think that everbody who purchased in the price range had the means to pay 20-30% down. They didn’t have to, so by definition it left the door open for a huge pool of buyers without that kind of cash. Well now it looks like that door will be shut again. It will have significant impact no question.[/quote]

deadzone, I don’t believe ALL homebuyers shopping in the $600K + range are all flush with cash, either. I was referring to those buying in niche coastal markets of predominately custom properties, such as Monterey (ex LJ and DM in SD County).

In less-desirable inland tracts, especially those encumbered by CFD’s, I think many unqualified buyers quickly got in over their heads buying in the over $600K range when they were helped by developers’ designated loan officers (were offered incentives to use them) who put them in 80/20’s, 80/10/10’s, 30 due in 5/7’s, I/O’s and balloon mtg vehicles. Often, there were never any surrounding comps to begin with to command the prices the developers were asking. They just attempted to create their OWN sales comps by making it easy for an unsophisticated buyer to pay top dollar for a house on a substandard lot (often less than 5000 sf).

Yes, I believe the value of inland tracts (east of I-5 in SD County) where the recent sold comps are currently over about $680K could be affected by lower FNMA/FDMC conforming limits. I do NOT believe highly desirable custom areas in coastal zones will be affected, however, as the buyers of each of these types of properties are completely different animals.

edit: I don’t think the lower conforming limit will affect buyers of acreage either (ex East County). This type of buyer is typically 50+ years old and often has plans for new construction or a major gut/rehab prior to even making an offer.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=deadzone]Unlike in sdr’s world (where everybody is rich and life is a utopia), I don’t believe everybody is loaded with cash. Of course there are people with cash to put down 20-30% on a non-conforming loan. But, you guys are extremely naive to think that everbody who purchased in the price range had the means to pay 20-30% down. They didn’t have to, so by definition it left the door open for a huge pool of buyers without that kind of cash. Well now it looks like that door will be shut again. It will have significant impact no question.[/quote]

deadzone, I don’t believe ALL homebuyers shopping in the $600K + range are all flush with cash, either. I was referring to those buying in niche coastal markets of predominately custom properties, such as Monterey (ex LJ and DM in SD County).

In less-desirable inland tracts, especially those encumbered by CFD’s, I think many unqualified buyers quickly got in over their heads buying in the over $600K range when they were helped by developers’ designated loan officers (were offered incentives to use them) who put them in 80/20’s, 80/10/10’s, 30 due in 5/7’s, I/O’s and balloon mtg vehicles. Often, there were never any surrounding comps to begin with to command the prices the developers were asking. They just attempted to create their OWN sales comps by making it easy for an unsophisticated buyer to pay top dollar for a house on a substandard lot (often less than 5000 sf).

Yes, I believe the value of inland tracts (east of I-5 in SD County) where the recent sold comps are currently over about $680K could be affected by lower FNMA/FDMC conforming limits. I do NOT believe highly desirable custom areas in coastal zones will be affected, however, as the buyers of each of these types of properties are completely different animals.

edit: I don’t think the lower conforming limit will affect buyers of acreage either (ex East County). This type of buyer is typically 50+ years old and often has plans for new construction or a major gut/rehab prior to even making an offer.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=walterwhite]http://www.slate.com/id/2293766/pagenum/2

article in todays SLATE. on college bubble.[/quote]

…Famed entrepreneur Peter Thiel, for instance, insists that just about every degree is worth little more than the paper it is printed on: Schooling is not education, he says, and ambitious kids should drop out and skip forward to the workplace…

I read the article, scaredy. I think employers are trying to reward new hires who have a college degree … any degree, just so they can start making payments on their college loans. This is foolhardy.

Entry level “white-collar” county jobs used to be filled by workers with a high school diploma or GED. Even though the hiring criteria on the job announcements have not changed or changed substantially, it seems that now these jobs are ALL filled by college degree-holders. Most are very, very monotonous and moving up and out of them could take years. Even the next-level job to get promoted to isn’t very challenging. The only difference between the duties of those lower-educated entry-level workers of yesteryear and the more highly educated workers of today is that yesterday’s workers used to dress more respectfully and did nearly all their tasks manually and on a Burroughs CRT tied to a mainframe. Now, nearly all of it is done by PC and there is very little need for moving out of the worker’s cubicle or customer service area. These computer tasks could easily be performed by a 5th-8th grader today. I hear young college-educated county workers state they’re bored out of their minds and don’t like answering to managers with far less education than themselves. Some don’t even stay long enough to pass probation or vest (which now takes longer for half the benefit). The ones that do stay do so only to live at parents’ houses a little longer and attempt to retire their student loans or pay them way down. When that is accomplished and/or they’ve had enough, they quit. They don’t have the dedication to service or loyalty that we had and I don’t believe the county cares anymore about this.

The only reason a vastly overqualified worker would want these jobs is because steady work is hard to come by right now and they can live with parents and pay down student loans and for no other reason, IMO. It is ridiculous to go thru all that getting a degree entails and then do grunt work all day in a political environment, IMHO.

edit: I’ve heard that a 4-year Bachelor Degree is now the *new* HS Diploma!

[bearishgurl]

[quote=walterwhite]http://www.slate.com/id/2293766/pagenum/2

article in todays SLATE. on college bubble.[/quote]

…Famed entrepreneur Peter Thiel, for instance, insists that just about every degree is worth little more than the paper it is printed on: Schooling is not education, he says, and ambitious kids should drop out and skip forward to the workplace…

I read the article, scaredy. I think employers are trying to reward new hires who have a college degree … any degree, just so they can start making payments on their college loans. This is foolhardy.

Entry level “white-collar” county jobs used to be filled by workers with a high school diploma or GED. Even though the hiring criteria on the job announcements have not changed or changed substantially, it seems that now these jobs are ALL filled by college degree-holders. Most are very, very monotonous and moving up and out of them could take years. Even the next-level job to get promoted to isn’t very challenging. The only difference between the duties of those lower-educated entry-level workers of yesteryear and the more highly educated workers of today is that yesterday’s workers used to dress more respectfully and did nearly all their tasks manually and on a Burroughs CRT tied to a mainframe. Now, nearly all of it is done by PC and there is very little need for moving out of the worker’s cubicle or customer service area. These computer tasks could easily be performed by a 5th-8th grader today. I hear young college-educated county workers state they’re bored out of their minds and don’t like answering to managers with far less education than themselves. Some don’t even stay long enough to pass probation or vest (which now takes longer for half the benefit). The ones that do stay do so only to live at parents’ houses a little longer and attempt to retire their student loans or pay them way down. When that is accomplished and/or they’ve had enough, they quit. They don’t have the dedication to service or loyalty that we had and I don’t believe the county cares anymore about this.

The only reason a vastly overqualified worker would want these jobs is because steady work is hard to come by right now and they can live with parents and pay down student loans and for no other reason, IMO. It is ridiculous to go thru all that getting a degree entails and then do grunt work all day in a political environment, IMHO.

edit: I’ve heard that a 4-year Bachelor Degree is now the *new* HS Diploma!

[bearishgurl]

[quote=walterwhite]http://www.slate.com/id/2293766/pagenum/2

article in todays SLATE. on college bubble.[/quote]

…Famed entrepreneur Peter Thiel, for instance, insists that just about every degree is worth little more than the paper it is printed on: Schooling is not education, he says, and ambitious kids should drop out and skip forward to the workplace…

I read the article, scaredy. I think employers are trying to reward new hires who have a college degree … any degree, just so they can start making payments on their college loans. This is foolhardy.

Entry level “white-collar” county jobs used to be filled by workers with a high school diploma or GED. Even though the hiring criteria on the job announcements have not changed or changed substantially, it seems that now these jobs are ALL filled by college degree-holders. Most are very, very monotonous and moving up and out of them could take years. Even the next-level job to get promoted to isn’t very challenging. The only difference between the duties of those lower-educated entry-level workers of yesteryear and the more highly educated workers of today is that yesterday’s workers used to dress more respectfully and did nearly all their tasks manually and on a Burroughs CRT tied to a mainframe. Now, nearly all of it is done by PC and there is very little need for moving out of the worker’s cubicle or customer service area. These computer tasks could easily be performed by a 5th-8th grader today. I hear young college-educated county workers state they’re bored out of their minds and don’t like answering to managers with far less education than themselves. Some don’t even stay long enough to pass probation or vest (which now takes longer for half the benefit). The ones that do stay do so only to live at parents’ houses a little longer and attempt to retire their student loans or pay them way down. When that is accomplished and/or they’ve had enough, they quit. They don’t have the dedication to service or loyalty that we had and I don’t believe the county cares anymore about this.

The only reason a vastly overqualified worker would want these jobs is because steady work is hard to come by right now and they can live with parents and pay down student loans and for no other reason, IMO. It is ridiculous to go thru all that getting a degree entails and then do grunt work all day in a political environment, IMHO.

edit: I’ve heard that a 4-year Bachelor Degree is now the *new* HS Diploma!

[bearishgurl]

[quote=walterwhite]http://www.slate.com/id/2293766/pagenum/2

article in todays SLATE. on college bubble.[/quote]

…Famed entrepreneur Peter Thiel, for instance, insists that just about every degree is worth little more than the paper it is printed on: Schooling is not education, he says, and ambitious kids should drop out and skip forward to the workplace…

I read the article, scaredy. I think employers are trying to reward new hires who have a college degree … any degree, just so they can start making payments on their college loans. This is foolhardy.

Entry level “white-collar” county jobs used to be filled by workers with a high school diploma or GED. Even though the hiring criteria on the job announcements have not changed or changed substantially, it seems that now these jobs are ALL filled by college degree-holders. Most are very, very monotonous and moving up and out of them could take years. Even the next-level job to get promoted to isn’t very challenging. The only difference between the duties of those lower-educated entry-level workers of yesteryear and the more highly educated workers of today is that yesterday’s workers used to dress more respectfully and did nearly all their tasks manually and on a Burroughs CRT tied to a mainframe. Now, nearly all of it is done by PC and there is very little need for moving out of the worker’s cubicle or customer service area. These computer tasks could easily be performed by a 5th-8th grader today. I hear young college-educated county workers state they’re bored out of their minds and don’t like answering to managers with far less education than themselves. Some don’t even stay long enough to pass probation or vest (which now takes longer for half the benefit). The ones that do stay do so only to live at parents’ houses a little longer and attempt to retire their student loans or pay them way down. When that is accomplished and/or they’ve had enough, they quit. They don’t have the dedication to service or loyalty that we had and I don’t believe the county cares anymore about this.

The only reason a vastly overqualified worker would want these jobs is because steady work is hard to come by right now and they can live with parents and pay down student loans and for no other reason, IMO. It is ridiculous to go thru all that getting a degree entails and then do grunt work all day in a political environment, IMHO.

edit: I’ve heard that a 4-year Bachelor Degree is now the *new* HS Diploma!

[bearishgurl]

[quote=walterwhite]http://www.slate.com/id/2293766/pagenum/2

article in todays SLATE. on college bubble.[/quote]

…Famed entrepreneur Peter Thiel, for instance, insists that just about every degree is worth little more than the paper it is printed on: Schooling is not education, he says, and ambitious kids should drop out and skip forward to the workplace…

I read the article, scaredy. I think employers are trying to reward new hires who have a college degree … any degree, just so they can start making payments on their college loans. This is foolhardy.

Entry level “white-collar” county jobs used to be filled by workers with a high school diploma or GED. Even though the hiring criteria on the job announcements have not changed or changed substantially, it seems that now these jobs are ALL filled by college degree-holders. Most are very, very monotonous and moving up and out of them could take years. Even the next-level job to get promoted to isn’t very challenging. The only difference between the duties of those lower-educated entry-level workers of yesteryear and the more highly educated workers of today is that yesterday’s workers used to dress more respectfully and did nearly all their tasks manually and on a Burroughs CRT tied to a mainframe. Now, nearly all of it is done by PC and there is very little need for moving out of the worker’s cubicle or customer service area. These computer tasks could easily be performed by a 5th-8th grader today. I hear young college-educated county workers state they’re bored out of their minds and don’t like answering to managers with far less education than themselves. Some don’t even stay long enough to pass probation or vest (which now takes longer for half the benefit). The ones that do stay do so only to live at parents’ houses a little longer and attempt to retire their student loans or pay them way down. When that is accomplished and/or they’ve had enough, they quit. They don’t have the dedication to service or loyalty that we had and I don’t believe the county cares anymore about this.

The only reason a vastly overqualified worker would want these jobs is because steady work is hard to come by right now and they can live with parents and pay down student loans and for no other reason, IMO. It is ridiculous to go thru all that getting a degree entails and then do grunt work all day in a political environment, IMHO.

edit: I’ve heard that a 4-year Bachelor Degree is now the *new* HS Diploma!

[bearishgurl]

[quote=Rich Toscano]Right, nobody can argue that it’s a positive, but is it a significant negative?

sdr says no, that it’s the same to qualify for both types of loans. But for instance sdr, I’ve heard that down payment requirements are higher for non-conforming loans… if this is true, (even if “qualifying” is otherwise the same), that represents a tightening of financing for this price range. Any idea whether that’s the case?[/quote]

I’m not sdr, but I believe many buyers seeking jumbo products to buy in “upscale areas” have the resources to put down far more than 20-30% but choose not to because they are able to leverage their purchase without the extra mortgaged amount costing them more in the form of a higher interest rate.

Obviously, if they are paying a 1% origination fee or “points,” then this “closing cost” would be a little higher. However, the purchase money points are tax deductible. If I was in this category, I wouldn’t pay points. I would take the rate offered without points. But that is just me.

Also, I believe many of these buyers are nearing retirement and have plans to retire their *new* mortgages within ten years.

edit: I guess what I’m trying to say here is, I don’t think any “tightening” to qualify this category of already highly qualified buyers (who purchase in places like Monterey) is going to make much of a difference in prices. “Location, location, location” will always prevail as the holy grail of value in CA, even if that mantra is referring to a vacant lot :=]

[bearishgurl]

[quote=Rich Toscano]Right, nobody can argue that it’s a positive, but is it a significant negative?

sdr says no, that it’s the same to qualify for both types of loans. But for instance sdr, I’ve heard that down payment requirements are higher for non-conforming loans… if this is true, (even if “qualifying” is otherwise the same), that represents a tightening of financing for this price range. Any idea whether that’s the case?[/quote]

I’m not sdr, but I believe many buyers seeking jumbo products to buy in “upscale areas” have the resources to put down far more than 20-30% but choose not to because they are able to leverage their purchase without the extra mortgaged amount costing them more in the form of a higher interest rate.

Obviously, if they are paying a 1% origination fee or “points,” then this “closing cost” would be a little higher. However, the purchase money points are tax deductible. If I was in this category, I wouldn’t pay points. I would take the rate offered without points. But that is just me.

Also, I believe many of these buyers are nearing retirement and have plans to retire their *new* mortgages within ten years.

edit: I guess what I’m trying to say here is, I don’t think any “tightening” to qualify this category of already highly qualified buyers (who purchase in places like Monterey) is going to make much of a difference in prices. “Location, location, location” will always prevail as the holy grail of value in CA, even if that mantra is referring to a vacant lot :=]

[bearishgurl]

[quote=Rich Toscano]Right, nobody can argue that it’s a positive, but is it a significant negative?

sdr says no, that it’s the same to qualify for both types of loans. But for instance sdr, I’ve heard that down payment requirements are higher for non-conforming loans… if this is true, (even if “qualifying” is otherwise the same), that represents a tightening of financing for this price range. Any idea whether that’s the case?[/quote]

I’m not sdr, but I believe many buyers seeking jumbo products to buy in “upscale areas” have the resources to put down far more than 20-30% but choose not to because they are able to leverage their purchase without the extra mortgaged amount costing them more in the form of a higher interest rate.

Obviously, if they are paying a 1% origination fee or “points,” then this “closing cost” would be a little higher. However, the purchase money points are tax deductible. If I was in this category, I wouldn’t pay points. I would take the rate offered without points. But that is just me.

Also, I believe many of these buyers are nearing retirement and have plans to retire their *new* mortgages within ten years.

edit: I guess what I’m trying to say here is, I don’t think any “tightening” to qualify this category of already highly qualified buyers (who purchase in places like Monterey) is going to make much of a difference in prices. “Location, location, location” will always prevail as the holy grail of value in CA, even if that mantra is referring to a vacant lot :=]

[bearishgurl]

[quote=Rich Toscano]Right, nobody can argue that it’s a positive, but is it a significant negative?

sdr says no, that it’s the same to qualify for both types of loans. But for instance sdr, I’ve heard that down payment requirements are higher for non-conforming loans… if this is true, (even if “qualifying” is otherwise the same), that represents a tightening of financing for this price range. Any idea whether that’s the case?[/quote]

I’m not sdr, but I believe many buyers seeking jumbo products to buy in “upscale areas” have the resources to put down far more than 20-30% but choose not to because they are able to leverage their purchase without the extra mortgaged amount costing them more in the form of a higher interest rate.

Obviously, if they are paying a 1% origination fee or “points,” then this “closing cost” would be a little higher. However, the purchase money points are tax deductible. If I was in this category, I wouldn’t pay points. I would take the rate offered without points. But that is just me.

Also, I believe many of these buyers are nearing retirement and have plans to retire their *new* mortgages within ten years.

edit: I guess what I’m trying to say here is, I don’t think any “tightening” to qualify this category of already highly qualified buyers (who purchase in places like Monterey) is going to make much of a difference in prices. “Location, location, location” will always prevail as the holy grail of value in CA, even if that mantra is referring to a vacant lot :=]

[bearishgurl]

[quote=Rich Toscano]Right, nobody can argue that it’s a positive, but is it a significant negative?

sdr says no, that it’s the same to qualify for both types of loans. But for instance sdr, I’ve heard that down payment requirements are higher for non-conforming loans… if this is true, (even if “qualifying” is otherwise the same), that represents a tightening of financing for this price range. Any idea whether that’s the case?[/quote]

I’m not sdr, but I believe many buyers seeking jumbo products to buy in “upscale areas” have the resources to put down far more than 20-30% but choose not to because they are able to leverage their purchase without the extra mortgaged amount costing them more in the form of a higher interest rate.

Obviously, if they are paying a 1% origination fee or “points,” then this “closing cost” would be a little higher. However, the purchase money points are tax deductible. If I was in this category, I wouldn’t pay points. I would take the rate offered without points. But that is just me.

Also, I believe many of these buyers are nearing retirement and have plans to retire their *new* mortgages within ten years.

edit: I guess what I’m trying to say here is, I don’t think any “tightening” to qualify this category of already highly qualified buyers (who purchase in places like Monterey) is going to make much of a difference in prices. “Location, location, location” will always prevail as the holy grail of value in CA, even if that mantra is referring to a vacant lot :=]

[bearishgurl]

[quote=earlyretirement] . . .Yeah, real estate prices vary in various areas like California and New York. But my philosophy is if you can’t afford a given area, move to a cheaper area that is more affordable.[/quote]

Exactly.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=earlyretirement] . . .Yeah, real estate prices vary in various areas like California and New York. But my philosophy is if you can’t afford a given area, move to a cheaper area that is more affordable.[/quote]

Exactly.

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