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bearishgurl
ParticipantAT&T service on unlocked non-smart phone worked until about 5:45 p.m. yesterday, then displayed “No Network Coverage” until this morning. Running on GSM/GPRS/EDGE. Was able to get messages off of it and make calls this morning but it initially displayed the wrong time (abt 2 hrs later). I shut it off and back on and it is now displaying the correct time. (Texting/internet was turned off with the carrier abt 3 years ago.)
Kid w/new AT&T Windows smartphone lost all services about 5:30 pm and did not get it back until this morning.
Landline went out right away and was working again by about 8:45 pm.
Internet was hard-wired to wireless router w/no battery backup so no service.
Walked dog at 7:30 pm and noticed 8 generators in use on block and one homeowner taking up residence in their RV.
Neighbors tell me this morning we rec’d our service back after 3:00 a.m. Friends in East county state they rec’d their service back just before 2:00 a.m.
Participant[quote=SD Realtor][quote=davelj]The issue for housing prices vis-a-vis interest rates is the degree to which rents increase along with interest rates (which eventually reflect the general level of price inflation). If rates rise meaningfully more than rents then housing prices will fall. If rents rise more or less as much as interest rates then housing prices will be largely unaffected even if rates rise (see the 70s and early-80s for an example of this).
If the value (V) of a perpetual stream of cashflows (CF) is denoted by:
V=CF/(R-G)
where R is the interest rate and G is the growth in the cash flows, you can see that if G (re: rents) is increasing at the same rate as R (rates)… the denominator stays the same and the value is unchanged even as rates rise.
So, the issue of the impact of higher interest rates on housing prices must be discussed in the context of the degree to which rents follow the general level of inflation (the latter will drive interest rates).[/quote]Dave I think it could be argued that the relationship between housing prices and salaries for a given region would alter the formula you put forth. For the most part I would agree with that formula for most of the country however I think it doesn’t hold up as well for areas with distorted prices. For proportional price hikes the buyers pool shrinks more rapidly in the distorted regions especially as lending standards tighten up.[/quote]
I don’t quite understand the formula dave proposed here but I understand what he was trying to say re: rent levels proportionate to interest rate levels with regard to positive/negative cash flows for a landlord. (Correct me if I don’t have this right, dave).
And I also understand what SDR is saying here, but don’t think it rings true for SD County. I believe low and moderate income tenants or potential buyers of same have ACCEPTED the “sunshine tax” for housing in SD County for many years as a prerequisite to living here and will continue to do so. Many will simply use more incomes (thus put more persons on the lease or title) to rent or buy a property. I believe this is due to “coastal” SD County’s near-perfect weather 95% of the time and its proximity to Mexico and LAX (Asian immigrants) and also shortish driving distances to desert and mountain resorts in AZ and RIV and SB Counties.
EVERYONE here has the option of voluntarily moving to the nation’s midsection (for example), where housing is cheaper, often better built and there are more jobs. But how many actually do? Life is *very* different there than here. There is price to pay for everything. SD County’s desirability isn’t going away, prices here are a function of supply and demand (just like anywhere else). A legal (or even illegal – with cash) immigrant from south of the border can buy property here and STILL live in close proximity to their families in Baja Norte, MX and even <= a day's drive to Baja Sur, MX and the interior state of Sonora along the Sea of Cortez. Besides Imperial County (often hot & dusty), where ELSE is this possible?? If your answer is Brownsville, TX, that (gulf) region and the MX state of Tamaulipas don't hold a candle to the Pacific Ocean and Baja, CA. They're not even in the same league. I believe the VALUES here are different for the middle-class on down to low-moderate income buyers/tenants here. Many persons who reside in SD County who are not well-established here (i.e. have little to no assets) and sometimes no familial ties are (consciously or unconsciously) *willing* to give up a certain amount of discretionary income to remain here (i.e. keep their rent or mtg/taxes paid). I have come to the conclusion that longtime and native residents of the nation's midsection with comparable incomes to low/moderate-income San Diegans are established near their families and used to consuming or saving more and thus are NOT willing to relocate to a coastal locale with prices similar to SD County's because they have NO IDEA what they are "missing" by not living here, nor do they care. Different strokes for different folks. I believe that even if all recent SD "transplants" become disgusted with what they can buy/rent here and load up their moving vans to places like Tulsa, OK, where they can buy a sprawling, manicured 2700+ sf mid-century brick ranch on a "leafy" 1/2+ AC lot in the middle of town for $250-$275K, SD's RE market will not miss a beat. These former residents' SD homes will be promptly rented/sold to longtime San Diegans (or their children, often with parents' help), SF bay area transplants or immigrants from everywhere in the world (both longtime and recent residents). Believe it or not, areas such as Paradise Hills, Valencia Park, Lomita Village and Nestor (all City of SD) are VERY desirable to particular subsets of buyers and tenants both culturally and location-wise. I don't think we are currently in a RE "bull" market by any stretch of the imagination, but this is just the way I view the region, based upon my own experiences. Looking thru the eyes of many potential first-time buyers, I just don't see the issue of SD's "desirability" and "buyer willingness to pay" as a pure numbers game, as many Piggs seem to. In short, I don't think any (real or perceived) "price distortion" has or will ever affect the desirability of the SD region. Where there is a will, there is a way to rent/purchase a place to live in SD. Persons who want to buy bad enough can will find a way, even under more stringent mortgage underwriting guidelines (as they did "pre-millenium bubble"). Nothing has changed in this regard.
ParticipantHarris County, TX (county seat “Houston”) received a HUGE amount of long-term Federal government assistance in late 2005 to initially accept 250K+ “refugees” from Hurricane Katrina and eventually permanently resettle about 60K of them. More were later resettled there in the first quarter of 2006.
Here’s a link discussing the aftermath in TX of the initial 250K refugees bussed there.
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/weather/july-dec05/houston_9-8.html
I have no doubt that not only did this “assistance” help with welfare payments and other cash assistance, $$ to boost their Section 8 rolls and EBT cards (Dept of Agriculture) was also provided, as well as various business incentives to hire many of these refugees.
As I recall, this area was chosen by the Federal government for a massive relocation because it had the (housing) vacancies and room, its climate was similar to New Orleans and Katrina victims could more easily assimilate due to cultural affinities present there. In addition, TX politicians at the time welcomed the influx of (warm-bodies-soon-to-be-taxpayers) refugees.
The “Houston” area resettlement was meant to act as a permanent fix to gradually move the resettled families off “lifetime” welfare rolls who were formerly languishing on them in the State of LA in an area rife with long-term chronic unemployment and substandard housing.
For the most part, this government infusion of cash (to Harris Co, TX) accomplished what it was intended to do but also had the effect of boosting its long-term economy. :=]
Participant[quote=cjdairym]lol, day isn’t complete without another “friendly” discussion between sdr and BG.[/quote]
No worries, here, cjdairym. You Piggs can all banter with “wtf sdr” to your heart’s content this nice holiday weekend. I’m headed up to San Simeon and the Big Sur and points north, lol….:=]
ParticipantTo the OP, we have a LOT of those people in Chula Vista, both “truly wealthy” and “truly comfortable.” 🙂
Participant[quote=flu]If they were married > 7 years, it’s much more complicated than that.[/quote]
You are correct, flu. Conversely, if they were married < 10 years, the lower-earning or non-earning spouse is not eligible for permanent spousal support orders in CA. This does not preclude a lump-sum settlement being made, however. http://www.divorcelawfirms.com/resources/divorce/spousal-support/california-alimony-spousal-support-laws.htm
I can't even begin to tell you how many women have approached me to prepare a disso packet or response packet for them who initially believe that they can stay living where they are, stay unemployed and no facet of their financial lives will change during and after the pendency of their divorce. Delusion is rampant in this regard.
I've seen a LOT in my day and ... amicable or not, this "happy story" doesn't make any sense here, IMO.
Participant[quote=sdrealtor]Again BG you dont know WTF you are talking about. They have tons of money and there is no reason to sell the house. The husband said she could have it and would have no problem keeping it. He wants her to have it and his daughter to grow up here, he just doesnt want to be married anymore. The mortage is only $1500/month and she will be getting 10 times that in spousal/child support. She isnt very fianncially savy and just asked me to check out a few things to see if what he told her was true. I did and he was being honest. She will be here for a long time…[/quote]
So, “he” is willing to have the $300K debt on his credit report while “she” (ostensibly) makes $1500 payments for the next 20 years….assuming she is ALWAYS able to collect $15K a month in support payments…without interruption…lol. Isn’t spousal support typically ordered for half the length of the marriage in CA unless the payee is legally disabled, over the age of 65 or both??
I wonder how long this “situation” will last…or if it will even come about at all?
ParticipantAttrition of the best students from public to private HS happens everywhere.
http://72.249.30.49/~marian/index.php/2011-08-09-03-29-05/school-profile
The school above’s students come from all over metro SD and South County but the vast majority are siphoned from South County school attendance areas. Nearly ALL the teachers there have doctorate degrees (nuns) and were brought in by the SD Diocese from Ohio specifically to run/teach in this school. It has an entirely college-prep curriculum (very rigorous) which includes mandatory religious education.
In addition, Bishops (HS) has four stops on Bonita Road and one near the SD Country Club (Hilltop & L in Chula Vista). They may also have routes I don’t know about in 91913, 91914 and 91915. This certainly drains “cream of the crop” students from South County HS’s as well.
That’s the way the ball bounces. If families can afford it, they have the right to send their children to top-notch private schools. And as has previously been posted, students with discipline and motivation problems do not last long at these schools. These schools are too expensive for the rest of the students to be distracted by the ones who don’t want to learn. Those “carefree surfer-dude types” are left to attend public school or be homeschooled :=]
ParticipantWow, is sdr giving “legal advice” now??
There’s only one small problem here. The court will likely force a sale of the family home so that each spouse can take their equity share (if any) in their settlement.
One spouse MAY be able to retain the house if they are able to refinance and pay the other spouse their equity share, give the other spouse equivalent personally-owned real or personal property in kind OR if the other spouse agrees that they can live in it temporarily while their children attend a particular school. This last situation is fraught with problems and issues, however, as BOTH spouses names are likely on the trust deed(s) and note(s) and tax bill. Even if one spouse is ordered to pay certain bills related to the house, it doesn’t mean they will or they will on time and that the other spouse’s credit won’t be affected after divorce. Even if the spouse ordered to pay certain bills continues to pay them on time, the other spouse will have that debt on their credit report and thus may not be able to move on with their lives (get another RE loan/auto loan, etc).
Unfortunately, sdr will not be able to have a say in whether it will be “mom” or “dad” who continues living in the house for a period of months/years until their agreement/court order forces it to be sold :=[
Participant[quote=flu]I think there is a difference between if school X and school Y have a huge disparity in scores. BUT, if they’re within a 50 or so points, I don’t see it necessarily that much worse. What is interesting to me is SD in general seemed to have improved overall.[/quote]
Agree, flu. The teachers are getting very, very good at having cold knowledge and therefore very precise repetition of the test material. I’ve seen this is action at a HS open house and was VERY impressed!!
Participant[quote=sdrealtor]BG
If you dont get the joke you are the joke.I covered LCC about 50 posts ago[/quote]
[quote=sdrealtor]…When you look at LCC the hispanics score 685 as they are typically from the long time bario areas in Leucadia, Cardiff and Encinitas. The typical upwardly mobile hispanic family cant afford to purchase new homes in this area. In SM newer home prices have become affordable for upwardly mobile hispanic families and theirs scores 785. The white population at SM High comes predominantly from the new developments as well and their scores are 914. Whereas at LCC you get alot of the skater/surfer dude population near the beaches who think school isnt cool so they pull the scores down to 844…[/quote]
Is THIS the rationalizing joke-of-a-passage you’re referring to here, sdr?? Maybe you should run for public office. You’re certainly showing potential talent here to “fake it ’til you make it” on the campaign-trail stump, lol…
Are you trying to make excuses for all those quality students who hail from “beautiful people” families who “have it all” in NCC??
Somebody has to do it….How about we just get down to brass tacks here.
Carlsbad High – Carlsbad Unified API 829
La Costa Canyon High – San Dieguito Union API 818So where are these schools rated in comparison to all the other high schools in the county?? THIS is the $64M question here.
Participant[quote=AN]…To those who say API scores mean nothing, have you guys/gals gone/or know someone who have gone to a school that have an API score of 1? My wife did and she can tell you endless stories of bad teachers, classmates who drop out due to pregnancies, gang activities. She and some of her friend survived and end up going to various top rated Universities and are successful today. Others didn’t fare so well. However, I wouldn’t want to take the risk and put my kids in that environment. API score is nothing more than a number that summarize the student body’s average academic performance. So, it means something, but it’s not going to make your dumb kid smart or make your smart kid dumb, would you? Take it for what it is.[/quote]
Actually, I have known MANY successful people who graduated from HS’s all over the city and county, AN, including Morse, Crawford, Hoover, Lincoln, Southwest, Montgomery, Castle Park, Sweetwater, Mt Miguel, El Cajon Valley, Helix, etc.
Is your spouse successful now, AN? Does she have a successful career? Was she able to get into college and get a degree? You seem to be fairly intelligent so it stands to reason that you wouldn’t marry someone who was “dumb,” would you?
It sounds as if your spouse’s HS was rated a “1” that the tests either weren’t administered at her school or only administered to a handful of students. Did you ever think that perhaps there might be a math or procedural error there?
I agree that API “means something” but what it means for HS is that 10th grade English, Math and History teachers are teaching students using rote memorization techniques to the test and nothing more. The grilling is so intense and concentrated in the weeks before the tests are administered that it is almost akin to the CACI’s being “open-book” exams, lol! The outcome of these tests has literally represented schools’ “bread and butter” for the last dozen years or so, economically speaking. And these teachers all KNOW which side of their bread is buttered on. They didn’t fall off of an onion truck yesterday.
It is what it is. The fundamental point I was trying to make on this thread is, how much $$ (over and above a same or similar property in a different-but-not-worse area) are these “scores” worth to a family? How much cash outlay every month and year should a family put towards chasing these scores? And is an area really a “worse” area just because its area school(s) score lower than others??
Why would a “well-connected” neighbor or friend of your child be necessarily “qualified” to help your child with schoolwork just by virtue of residing in a particular zip code? Has anyone ever considered that there might be top-notch tutoring/mentoring programs available for children residing in lower-income areas who actually ARE qualified to tutor and help with homework?? For instance:
http://ucsdnews.ucsd.edu/newsrel/students/03-28HelpingSudents.asp
http://www.sdmentorcoalition.org/sd_program_list.pdf
Since this is a RE-oriented blog, the points I brought up here were intended to be thought-provoking, but I now see they garnered some juvenile “wtf” defensive ramble about the perceived “quality” of a student/child’s classmates and the need for 4th graders to become “well-connected” at the age of nine (to adults??) in order to become successful in life. Considering the source, I don’t take it seriously, lol…
ParticipantBack to the Pigg “grindstone” this morning before I get ready for my trip this wknd, lol….
sdr, you keep avoiding the obvious. How’s about we discuss those HS scores in your “gridlocked nirvana” now? The Piggs want to know how all the “amazing, quality” kids (who presumably have every advantage) did on their CACI’s in relation to the other “top” HS’s in the county.
Why don’t you start with your stomping ground …. drumroll….
……..Carlsbad, CA??
Participant[quote=walterwhite]API scores mean nothing.
-snip-
fuck the API score. meaningless….all that matters is whether you find your own way.[/quote]
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