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bearishgurl
Participant[quote=AN][quote=bearishgurl]You would have to see it to believe it. It’s a dirty shame – CA’s darkest secret that never should have happened.[/quote]No, I wouldn’t be shocked. My wife grew up in Fresno and her entire extended family live there for over 20 years. So, I’m sure I know as much if not more about the San Joaquin Valley than you do. So, you might think you know about a place by driving through it, I know the place because I have family members who grew up there and are still living there. I go visit them several times a year. So yes, I’ve seen it as it changes over the last 10+ years.[/quote]
I don’t just “drive through,” AN. I have good friends in Merced, Modesto and Lodi and have taken nearly ALL the state hwys ALL over the state traversing from the coast inland and vice versa. The inland sprawl (west of the Sierras) is almost EVERYWHERE there is a road thru unprotected open space!
So what do you think of the outgrowth of Fresno and surrounds, AN? Does it appear “sustainable” to you? Has any of your spouse’s relatives commented on how the (surrounding) distressed properties affect their own values and/or on the displacement of all the families who have lost their homes?
Participant[quote=AN]You would have to see it to believe it. It’s a dirty shame – CA’s darkest secret that never should have happened.[/quote]
No, I wouldn’t be shocked. My wife grew up in Fresno and her entire extended family live there for over 20 years. So, I’m sure I know as much if not more about the San Joaquin Valley than you do. So, you might think you know about a place by driving through it, I know the place because I have family members who grew up there and are still living there. I go visit them several times a year. So yes, I’ve seen it as it changes over the last 10+ years.[/quote]I don’t just “drive through,” AN. I have good friends in Merced, Modesto and Lodi and have taken nearly ALL the state hwys ALL over the state traversing from the coast inland and vice versa. The inland sprawl (west of the Sierras) is almost EVERYWHERE there is a road with unprotected open space!
So what do you think of the outgrowth of Fresno and surrounds, AN? Does it appear “sustainable” to you? Has any of your spouse’s relatives commented on how the (surrounding) distressed properties affect their own values and/or on the displacement of all the families who have lost their homes?
Participant[quote=UCGal] . . . Next you’ll be saying that an owner that needs to sell quickly because of a job relo is artificially undervaluing the market.[/quote]
UCGal, a “relo” is not an “artificial sold comp” if the seller’s mtg(s) were paid in full at COE. It doesn’t matter what the “reason” is for sale.
It is the sold comps created by (out of area?) ignorant first TD lenders in CA who allow themselves to be talked into taking 50 cents on the dollar in a SS, enabling these deadbeat “debtor-sellers” to drive off into the sunset in their *new* vehicles (paid for with “home equity”) that I have a problem with. These flagrant overspenders just left behind a passel of stunned neighbors picking up the pieces of the ramifications of their *new* lowest-of-the-low sold comp they must now contend with!
ParticipantREOs are currently selling for more than SS’s, but for the most part are already cleaned up, fixed a little and have their junk hauled away. Not so with short sales.
The bottom line is that I am seeing SS listings initially come on the market at a “teaser” price (i.e. 50% of what was paid for it in 2006 and/or 50% of what the last nearby comparable “organic” listing sold for). Yes, they are bid up but NOT to “market price,” probably mostly due to condition (in the absence of listing agent/broker fraud).
Here is a good example in Chula Vista. It is listed at a ridiculously low price range and sits next door to a $2M listing on nearly 2 AC which has a Mills Act contract! Purchased in 2002 for $290K, this owner spent hundreds of hours on rock, brick and ironwork over the last ten years as well as did beautiful stonework for a few nearby properties. It is obvious they put a LOT of money into the property (likely with $$ borrowed against it). The backyard is completely flat, RV accessible, HUGE and surrounded by a beautiful block/brick wall. The house is large, has no stairs and is situated in a very quiet enclave of all custom homes.
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/35-F-St_Chula-Vista_CA_91910_M26543-00584
Notice the LA posted only unflattering photos (duh … as if they already had a friend/relative’s offer waiting for “approval”). BTW that “puddle” out front is on the city’s easement, lol…
Here’s the listing next door.
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/21-F-St_Chula-Vista_CA_91910_M26772-30571
There are two other Mills Act beauties nearby, a large Spanish a couple hundred yards away and a large Craftsman one block away, both in turnkey condition. In addition, there are several unusual architect-designed customs (including an infamous mid-century atrium house) within a stone’s throw of this property.
Barring a cracked slab or broken chimney, this short sale bidding SHOULD have started at at least $400K, IMHO.
If this property sells anywhere NEAR this range, this doesn’t bode well for the value of the mostly very well-kept surrounding properties (large houses on large lots) at all.
Can an (out of area??) lender be THIS STUPID??
“Short sale” pricing is BS and it sickens me (due to LA purposely NOT securing the highest price if they have a friend/relative who wants the property at a bargain-basement price). These types of shenanigans are nothing more than fraud, plain and simple, not only against the shorted lender, but against all surrounding property owners.
Participant[quote=The-Shoveler]Funny, I was just on the phone with a colleague, said he was coming down to TV to look for future retirement home and spend some time at Pechanga.
Pechanga has to be the biggest draw for newbees comig to TV.[/quote]
I’m curious as to where your “colleague” lives now.
Participant[quote=briansd1]BG, there’s that suburban sprawl and exurban sprawl because it’s so hard to build and increase density in already built-out areas.
I’m telling you, if SD doesn’t want new houses, Temecula, Fallbrook, Escondido, El Cajon, will. Remember those developer fees you talked about before?
Those avocado groves, orange groves or whatever will be mowed over until they are no more.[/quote]
NOT!
brian, I can’t speak for Fallbrook (except that it is in the General (2020?) Plan for SD County and I can’t speak for Temecula. Esco MAY have land left in 92026, however most of that area is very rocky and hilly, some is on a Type-A flood plain and what IS developed is mostly HOA-encumbered SFR tracts (i.e. Lawrence Welk/Mtn Meadow exits). Much of Esco is County and semi-rural. I don’t see that changing.
All El Cajon’s hilltops are already developed that can be developed. A huge portion of its flat land within the county’s general plan (92019) is zoned 1 unit per AC (sorry, NOT going to CHANGE)! The rest was built with HOA-encumbered tracts (i.e. Cottonwood/RSD) 20-25 years ago. 92020 has been zoned SFR, multi-family and comm’l for more than 50 years. The City has allowed in more low-income units here than any other zip code in the county! 92021 has been zoned mostly SFR and comm’l/light industrial for nearly 50 years.
It’s already built out.
Now, if you have a yen for “redevelopment,” I urge you to find yourself one or more “infill lots” in EC, put your Big Developer Hat on, chain your main draftsperson to your arm and head on up to Ruffin Rd and/or City Hall.
http://www.ci.el-cajon.ca.us/dept/comm/planning.html
And GOOD LUCK, brian …
Participant[quote=UCGal]I remember when Poway was considered a distant burb. Heck – when I first moved to UC (as a kid in the early 60’s) it was a distant burb.
I also know retirees who raised their kids in San Diego, kids still live in San Diego, but sold and bought in Murrieta. Wanted a newer home, lower maintenance, quiter, less urban lifestyle.
Lots of exceptions to every rule.[/quote]
Yes, UCGal, I too, remember when “Poway” was several miles inland from the *new* I-15. It was considered “far-flung” and Poway road was sandbagged for the longest time :=]
If you have noticed, I haven’t put TV on the future “ghost-town map” yet (and neither has CNN/Money), lol ….
TV seems to have a lot going for it now in its own right, seems somewhat self-contained and has some light industry and a large casino. And it’s not that far of a drive to Riverside or Corona from there.
Not sure though, about the percentage of TV’s population who actually commute more than 50 mi one-way to work. Not sure if there are *enough* nearby good jobs to serve that area, ESP for those who live in the more outlying areas of Hemet and Moreno Valley. If these outlying areas are populated by retirees (like Palm Sprs, Indio & Sun City), then close proximity to work doesn’t really matter.
There are many “quiet, less-urban” places in CA to retire which are much better-located than TV. Persons nearing retirement who are financially secure won’t generally move from a “70 deg avg” area to “90 deg avg” area unless they need or want to be near other family members. In the absence of that reason, what’s the point?
Participant[quote=AN]…FYI, Fresno, Bakersfield, etc. did not “sprung up” in the last decade. They’ve been there for many many years. I can bet you Fresno is not going to be a ghost town.[/quote]
Of course they didn’t, AN. And I will admit that there were enough jobs in those small cities to employ their original (year 2000) populations. But you should SEE what’s built around them now! You would be SHOCKED!!
It’s evident to me here that there are not a lot of Piggs that are as well-road-traveled as I am. I can safely say I’ve traveled nearly all hwys, large and small in this entire state, some multiple times and some dozens of times.
CA is slowly losing its prized agricultural “foodbasket” to “Big Development.” This vast area is THE prime provider of food and commodities to nearly the entire country, ESP for food that cannot be grown elsewhere.
The San Joaquin Valley wasn’t meant to turn into a mcmansion megalopolis. The population and job centers to support this type of housing never existed there. It’s absolutely horrific driving through these recently-built far-flung tracts in inland counties which were and are extremely hard-hit by distressed properties primarily resulting from sub-prime lending of recent years.
You would have to see it to believe it. It’s a dirty shame – CA’s darkest secret that never should have happened.
Participant[quote=sdrealtor]I just love when these so called experts try to put everything into a nice neat little box as if the world actually works that way.[/quote]
Do any “realtors” around here have anything of value to add to this thread??
Participant[quote=The-Shoveler]While I can see the exurbs taking longer to recover, over the long term in SoCal we are forecast to keep growing population at a fair clip. I think the exurbs will look a lot less exurbesh in 20 years.
SoCal is not quite Detroit either. The two are different, I think Shiller was painting with a wide brush.[/quote]
Re: the bolded stmt, this will only happen if a plethora of well-paying jobs move to the four CA “exurban-poor” areas as shown on the CNN/Money map.
http://money.cnn.com/2011/09/23/news/economy/poverty_suburbs/index.htm?iid=HP_Highlight
Blue or white collar … doesn’t matter … the jobs need to pay a living wage and have benefits. For the most part, the families moving to these communities by necessity don’t have a gasoline budget of $400+ month for one vehicle.
I don’t think “retirees” are necessarily attracted to these exurban areas, unless they are originally from there (and I DO know some that are). Most “retirees” or “near-retirees” in CA that would consider moving for retirement already own a longtime home in a more desirable area of CA so would have no incentive to relocate in a “Cali-armpit” in the absence of family there.
Participant[quote=sdduuuude] . . . Maybe distant bedroom-only communities.[/quote]
Yes.
Participant[quote=ctr70]This is a very good question, especially if you are looking at buying rental houses in far flung Riverside County where houses are super cheap right now. Will people still rent in Hemet, Victorville, Temecula, Menifee, Desert Hot Springs with $6 a gallon gas? Will high gas prices depress rents?
That is a good point about poor people moving out of inner cities to suburbs in CA too. I know that a lot of lower income folks have moved out of LA to places like Moreno Valley, Victorville, Perris, etc… probably b/c of the lower rents and less crime (less crime for now at least). The whole idea that ghetto areas are more likely in inner cities has changed with the low income migrations out to Riverside and San Benardino Counties (and Lancaster/Palmdale part of LA County too).[/quote]
I would agree that a well-built 1940’s 3-4 bedroom house in LA County’s Lakewood or Downey on a street with a grassy tree-lined median is highly preferable to a house of the same size in Moreno Valley …. for a WHOLE HOST of reasons, not the least of which is “neighborhood stability.”
And it’s worth 3+ times as much, as well. We must ask ourselves why this is so.
ParticipantAN, if you go to the bottom of the second article, its information is derived from this piece:
http://money.cnn.com/2011/09/23/news/economy/poverty_suburbs/index.htm?iid=HP_Highlight
Click on the link above and look at CA. You will notice it is referring to exurbs and *new* “suburbs” which sprung from longtime farmland.
It’s not referring to communities such as Mira Mesa, which is actually “urban” (or “1st-tier suburban”). YOU and your “Gen-Y friends” are close to major job centers. The (CA) communities the CNN article is referring to sprung up in the last decade out of well-known agricultural areas.
These are CA’s future ghost towns, IMHO.
A property costing $400K in MM would cost only $150K – $200K in the outskirts of Stockton (for a comparable property). This is where the “poor” from both in-state and out-of-state are flocking to. They can’t fit a family of five into a 1 br condo in MM for $1200 month.
Participantbrian, you might consider taking your friends through the Ghirardelli Chocolate Factory if you have time while there.
It is a short walk from Fisherman’s Wharf.
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