[bearishgurl]

[quote=spdrun]Assuming the ratio of the two is even 1:1 (doubt it, probably more average and duds than cream-puffs), the average value is something like $158k. They’re buying AT MOST at a 30% discount, which is pretty normal for foreclosures. If there are only a few cream-puffs, this ratio goes waaay down.[/quote]

Agree to all. HOWEVER, “30% off” is not very doable, even at trustees sales, in more desirable areas of the US (such as coastal CA). In the more desirable areas, the vast majority of underwater trustors or recent years have bled every dime of equity (and then some) they could squeeze out of “their” property before accepting $3K or so from frannie to walk (after having lived in it an additional 24-40 mos for “free”). In addition, there are often jr. liens of income tax and child support and outstanding back property taxes appurtenant to the parcel on auction (avail for bid).

In most lower-cost areas of the country (incl most areas of FL), trustors weren’t allowed to borrow to the degree that they did in CA (and other higher-value mkts) as their collateral didn’t have as much “perceived value.”

It’s no wonder this deal looked attractive to a CA REIT, ESP if they are sharing future profit/loss with Fannie, mitigating some of the risk.

Obviously, many thousands of short sales sold for MORE than “30% off.” This form of “debt relief” to the undeserving is what has artificially caused the rest of the RE values in the surrounding areas of the closed SS’s to plummet. In these cases, the lenders just waited way too long fvcking around with deadbeat homedebtors and then threw in the towel (after 2.5+ yrs), taking it in the shorts.

The lenders who accepted deep SS prices in recent years (screwing us all) wouldn’t have had to sustain losses of this magnitude had they foreclosed timely in the first place.

[bearishgurl]

An avg of $111K each seems like a LOT of money to pay for FL properties in this day and age. HOWEVER, we must be mindful that for every $40K run-of-the-mill FL condo situated in well-known hurricane paths in Pacifica’s portfolio for which they paid an “avg” of $111K, there is also likely a $275K ++ penthouse or SFR in a “better” complex or hood. Generally, a buyer in recent years could get a lot of “bang for the buck” in nearly ALL areas of FL in recent years.

Pacifica took a pkg deal which likely included dozens of duds along with cream-puff-type properties that just needed cleaning up.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=FormerSanDiegan]Whatever you do, rent in your target area first. . . .

The main problem for you is that $675 k would have given you plenmty of options 12 months ago. Not so much now.

Regardless of where you choose. Make sure to rent in the area first. Local traffic patterns have a huge impact on lifestyle. Speaking from personal experience… you could live 15 miles from work and have a reaosnable 25-minute commute. Or you could live 6 miles from work and have it regularly take 40-45 minutes.[/quote]

The low inventory causing price increases is the problem, FSD. I think if the OP uses a very experienced agent for the city they are interested in purchasing in, they won’t make a buying mistake. If they sign a one-year lease, the properties they are seeing now that they qualify for will be a minimum of 12% higher when their lease expires, esp the well-located ones, IMHO.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=FormerSanDiegan]Regarding commutes.

At 10 am Wednesday October 10, here are the Google Maps “in traffic estimates for various places to downtown LA:

Valencia : 51 Minutes by car
48 minutes, plus connections (drive/walk to/from station) by transit

Culver City : 21 minutes by car, 29 minutes plus connection (drive/walk to/from station) by light rail

Pasadena : 15 minutes by car[/quote]

Of course, Pasadena wins the “commute contest,” hands down! And it is “night and day” there from dtn LA and East LA/Vernon. It’s a really nice community to live in, most neighborhoods are extremely walkable and it is convenient to all yet segregated from the grit :=]

Remember that it is cheaper and more convenient to pay for A/C or a whole house fan ($15 mo in SD) for a few months than spend 2.5 – 4 hrs commuting every day and then possibly have to run A/C for just as long or longer in the “lizardland” community. This is especially true with the recent spike in gas prices.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=desmond]I gave Former SD the contact info on the RE agent for the “Expert Opinion” and said not to listen to me. You know it all, I’m out.[/quote]

I’m not familiar with Valencia but would agree that a safe environment to raise kids in should be a top priority for a young parent. However, I (and am assuming you, as well) are fortunate in that we didn’t have any kids with “special-needs.”

In the OP’s situation, sometimes a very well-established urban school district in CA offers more programs in compliance with FAPE than a distant suburban or exurban district would.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_Appropriate_Public_Education

http://autism.about.com/b/2009/08/21/where-are-the-best-schools-for-kids-with-autism.htm

Your RE-agent friend may be more familiar with the public school special-education programs in the various school districts in his area or know someone who is or where to find the info.

[bearishgurl]

I’m re-e-e-a-a-a-ally partial to Pasadena:

http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Pasadena_CA/type-single-family-home,mfd-mobile-home/price-500000-700000?disp=1#/pfbm-0/pg-1

At the OP’s price range, one can get a larger Craftsman, Spanish or Arts & Crafts home of 1400-2200 sf on a larger-than-std lot. I even saw one property in there in prestigious “Pasadena Highlands” (Historical District) that could possibly qualify for Mills Act tax treatment if some of the (visible to the front) and interior silly things that were done to it over the years were restored:

http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/1384-N-Chester-Ave_Pasadena_CA_91104_M23081-65401

For example, acc to Mapquest, it is 13 to 15.5 miles (2 short routes) to the Dtn Temple Street Justice Complex one way from the above address. I don’t know about available public transportation from there but if I was moving to LA with the OP’s price range, that’s where I would go without a second thought. My second choice would be Claremont. Both cities are very beautiful and well-kept maintaining their values with Pasadena a real standout.

Also, I had friends from SD who accepted jobs in LA who raised their families in Flintridge/La Canada and also Hacienda Heights and were very pleased. However their kids grew up in the nineties and I don’t know how it is there now, nor am I familiar with the SFR price ranges in these communities.

My kid has a friend who moved to West Covina last year from the Sweetwater District (SD Co) and she was impressed with the (VERY well-equipped) HS there:

http://www.cousd.k12.ca.us/education/school/school.php?sectionid=5

It’s pretty flat out there (in East LA Co) but I have no doubt that a buyer could get more for the money.

[bearishgurl]

Full explanation here … this just in today from First Tuesday … it appears the prospective “strategic short-sellers” with 1st-TD loans backed by Frannie aren’t going to get too much sympathy from FICO … even after declaring a “hardship”

http://firsttuesdayjournal.com/no-sugar-from-fico-for-frannies-non-delinquent-short-sellers/

Only the prospective “strategic short-sellers” who don’t care about their FICO scores or the fact that they may not be able to get their short-paid lender(s) to report them to the credit repositories as “paid as agreed” after a successful short sale will avail themselves of this new “strategic-defaulter” criteria.

I see a few straggling baby boomers (who got caught up in payng too much in recent years) successfully take advantage of this new plan. After all, their “soon-to-be-legally-accessed-w/o-penalty” retirement accounts “won’t count” towards the “20% of assets” used to “make good” the deficiency in exchange for a “paid as agreed” mark on their credit report(s) :=]

These individuals can just turn around and pay cash for their next property so why should they care?

This new plan will enable them shed debt-overhang at the age of 60 and come out smelling like a rose :=D

[bearishgurl]

[quote=birmingplumb]Not to mention my new friends (sincere) here at this site who guided me in helping children settle in San Diego, God bless all here and especially bearishgurl
motown[/quote]

You’re welcome, birmingplumb! I’m currently on a “road trip” to those dreaded “flyover-states” to check on my gas and oil leases ;=}

Y’all sweating Piggs would surely appreciate this crisp cool fall air we have this evening in Flagstaff, AZ. It was 98 degrees all the way here until we were rewarded at 6 pm with a cool blast!

Now I’m considering putting Flagstaff on my “retirement short-list.” Yeah, I know, a bit “cheesy,” but high desert, replete with pines everywhere and snow piled up to its gills 5 mos per year . . . there’s likely no place on earth to compare it to!

Hint to Pigg road warriors: the US Homeland Security K-9 units moved to 8 mi east of Dateland, AZ. Their makeshift trailer camp on the Cali side of Winterhaven has been temporarily abandoned :=0 Today the K-9 critter was occupied in the lane to my right and I was only asked about my “citizenship” . . . no “papers please” requests occurred.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=CA renter]BG,

Why not rent in one of those retirement locations while renting out your current house? It sounds like you should be able to cover your PITI costs with rent, no? That way, you won’t have to make any hard decisions without knowing very well what you’re dealing with.

The “sell when rates are low” suggestion is made because I believe prices will be negatively affected by rising interest rates. The reason we’re seeing so many cash buyers now is because nothing else will give them a better return on their money. Everybody is crowding into RE which tells me it’s a better time to sell than buy (though prices could admittedly be run up for quite a while, just like any bubble).[/quote]

Yes, CAR, I could easily get a 1-2 yr lease on my place and take off when the time comes 🙂

Likewise , I could also sign at least a six-month lease in my retirement places of choices to try them out and see if I will like them AND they will like me :=0 And even move around from one to another!

My PITI is just over $1500 and I could likely get at least $1900 rent from a qualified long-term tenant. So its a positive cash flow as long as my tenant is vetted properly and I get at least a one-year lease.

In my case, I would prefer keeping the rent at ~$1900 and getting a signed 1-2 yr lease.

[bearishgurl]

Luv it, scaredy … 🙂

[bearishgurl]

[quote=AN][quote=flu]One of my agent friends sold two recently to two of her customers. OTD was $680k (excluding builder incentives).[/quote]
At that price, its more expensive than 4s and del sur. That’s pretty crazy.[/quote]

AN, yeah, I think it’s crazy, too, but Sorrento Mesa is far more conveniently-located than those other areas you mention. A homeowner there can easily bike to work in a few minutes if they work in the Sorrento Mesa/Sorrento Valley area.

That’s probably the reason for all the buyer interest which is indicative of the prices they can fetch.

[bearishgurl]

livinincali, Gen Y (the current and upcoming new homeowner generation) is populous as well, just like the boomers. I see them buying in droves, but they need so much more income to qualify for a mortgage than we did (I’m a “boomer”). HOWEVER, they have FAR more selection (in some locales) to choose from than we did.

Over the last year, I’ve read in several online articles and realty publications that Gen Y doesn’t want to commute to work. The majority of them prefer a convenient location over size and “newness.”

If this is actually true, it doesn’t bode too well for homeowners in lizardland. Retiring boomers relocating to SD with cash have no interest in lizardland. For example, they’re moving to Coronado or Pt Loma (to be near their boat which they’ve had slipped here for a decade-plus).

I don’t think the boom and bust cycles of Cali were affected solely by boomer behavior. I think they were affected primarily by monetary policy and cities and counties decisions to allow in Big Development.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=CA renter]Call me crazy, BG, but I’d say that when interest rates are at their lowest point, it is time to SELL if you ever intend to sell/move.

Don’t project the price trends over the past ~50 years to continue. Asset owners have had the effects of baby boomers entering their peak purchasing years (they are going to be entering their peak selling years now), and continuously lower interest rates over the past ~30 years. I think there is a definite danger of a prolonged period of asset price declines if interest rates ever get away from the Fed, or even if they start rising in a “controlled” fashion.

I think this is a dangerous trap that many are getting into. Just my 2 cents…[/quote]

I understand your logic, CAR … however, if my mortgage interest rate happened to go thru the roof (>7.5%), I could retire the balance upon retirement. This would take at least two years, even if it began to rise today (due to my 2% annual cap).

Being a “soon-to-be `retiree'” ~2 years from now, I have a lot to think about.

I cannot qualify for a mortgage in the traditional way and I’m sure I’m not alone among my brethren in this regard. Even though I have GREAT credit, I would HAVE to go limited or no-doc in order take out even a small (~150K or so) mortgage. Not sure if the very favorable rates, terms and closing costs actually exist anymore on these types of programs.

If I sold and bought a “retirement home” in a same cost or lower cost area as ChulaV, I would likely have to pay cash.

I want to try out 1-2 (mountainous?) places that have four seasons for perhaps 1+ year each before I make a final decision to leave permanently. If I decided on one of these places, I’d like to buy a one-story log cabin with a deck. I have to see if I can hack dry cold air for the long haul and if living there will exacerbate my (minor) joint problems.

I’m currently paying <$1200 mo P&I for a 2200 sf SFR with a large yard. I'm afraid if I sell too soon, I won't be able to get back to SD County if I want to without buying something far inferior to what I have. I've seen this happen to too many "retirees" who thought the "grass was greener" elsewhere but didn't actually try it out first. And no ... a week in a motor lodge or timeshare doesn't qualify as "trying the place out." I still like Fleetridge/Roseville (92106) for "retirement" but I now believe I would need to buy a fixer over there with a co-buyer. Even if I could manage to purchase on my own over there, I couldn't manage the annual taxes or rehab/repair by myself. I just feel like SD County is built out and the Big Development party is over. If it begins to substantially grow again, even due to immigration (due to its coastal location and the best weather in the country), its RE prices will rise everywhere and inventory for the best homes in the best locales will remain very tight. The presence or lack of "professional" jobs in the older established communities of SD County really has nothing to do with how fast or for how much a property there will sell. There are too many buyers with cash coming from everywhere and too many people who want to retire here from more expensive locales (ex: LA/SF Bay area). I'm not so bullish on lizardland. The saleability and prices in those areas are dependent on many factors which it's buyers and owners can't control, since most are younger (growing?) families who depend on 1-3 steady W-2 income(s) to pay the monthly bills. These factors (among others) render these homeowners vulnerable to having to make quick decisions regarding disposition of their property (w/o regard to current mkt conditions) and having insufficient income down the road, no matter what their income was at the time of their purchase-money mortgage qualification. In other words, I've seen families with $250K+ annual income spiral into prolonged unemployment and watched their UI run out. This is just my .02.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=flu]Well it’s clear now…

when the headlines reads
“Fed Pulls Trigger, to Buy Mortgages in Effort to Lower Rates”

They want the rates to go to 0%.???????…[/quote]

Don’t feel too bad, flu. My “0%” is actually a floor of 2.75%, which is my current “margin,” lol …

It’s all good though as my remaining balance is well under $200K so my monthly payment (recast once annually) is very, very reasonable … much cheaper than rent, actually.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=flu]…

* And wow, no rate increases until Mid-2015….[/quote]

Yes, thank you, Fed!

My 30-yr ARM (never refied), taken out over 12 years ago, is now at just over 3.75%!

And acc to “reliable” projections …

http://mortgage-x.com/general/indexes/cofi_rate_forecast.asp

my index should continue to fall and is not projected to rise above what it is now until sometime in early 2016!

I wanted to sell in 2014 when I’m planning on moving but if mortgage-x’s prognostications are true, this will give me more time to wait the market out (at a very, VERY low mortgage interest rate) for a higher sales price while renting it out!

I’ve enjoyed a tremendous run of downward adjustments for several years without even having to spend ONE DIME on refi!!

I’ve had these types of ARMSs since the eighties and have NEVER had this long and deep of a period of downward adjustments …

It’s AWESOME!

Folks, contrary to what the MSM would have us believe, OPTION ARMs are NOT EVIL. They are GOOD … that is, if you are a PRIME borrower who CHOOSES to AMORTIZE every month. (My current purchase money transaction cost only $2800 out the door to close.)

:=D

[Author]

Posts