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bearishgurl
Participant[quote=flyer]BG, when you’re ready, I’m sure opportunities will present themselves. Know you’ve probably thought of this also, but I’d definitely make sure you really want to give up San Diego before you make your final decision.
We’ve known quite a few people who left for “greener pastures,” and later wished they had their SAN home back, and I certainly wouldn’t want to see this happen to you.[/quote]
I have too, flyer, but the “greener pastures” were all out of state, namely TX, OK, AL, TN, MO.
They were all humid, bug-ridden pestholes, as spdrun would say :=]. That’s an apt description. These friends/ex-neighbors of mine thought they were really going to score with the large lot (even acreage) they were going to buy with the proceeds from the sale of their SoCal home. Two of them failed to take into account that it is actually an environmental liability to buy a property with your own private lake (pond) on your property in these locales because you will NEVER get rid of the flying, preying insects swarming all over your property and even deck/patio next to your home and make it impossible to go outside several months per year . . . even to chop down high reed and weeds with a sicle and run their riding lawnmowers without getting attacked by swarms of mosquitoes, chiggers, bees, wasps and locusts.
These nicely designed custom homes on 3-5 AC with a private “lake” (pond) looked so enticing and romantic on paper. The reality is a completely different story.
Every one of them came crawling back to SD to rent at an age where their earning power was little to zero. (Two of them were SD Natives.) I have lost touch will all of them and don’t know what has happened to any of them. I would surmise that most are living with their children now (or on their children’s land in a guest house).
This is why I am so adamant about NOT moving to an “environmental pesthole” in Norcal. They do exist in Lake County and along I-5 (which is too hot for me, anyway). Not all counties in CA are rated equal. Some have issues that I don’t want to be a part of.
ParticipantOh, and regular professional extermination costs for a small acreage in flyover America can run $3-$5K per year, especially for those which abut water tributaries and irrigation canals or have a “lake” (pond) on them.
ParticipantH@ll, maybe I’ll just buy a little plot of land (or share a plot with utilities already present) at the foot of Mt Shasta and erect a “yurt” next to my no-so-well-heeled boomer-brethren and go stargazing every night with my neighbors’ telescopes!
[img_assist|nid=25450|title=Yurt (from kit)|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=158|height=119]
[img_assist|nid=25451|title=Yurt interior|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=176|height=120]
Not sure if a window A/C unit would work in one of these …. lol.
I could just rent my place out here (for monthly income) and “try (the lifestyle) before buying!”
Participant[quote=flyer]The many members of our extended family who live from SFO all the way up to Santa Rosa, and south, to the Half Moon Bay area, as BG mentioned, have all have been watching this show for years.
The general area has always been a desirable place to live, but, as we all know, the tech boom has definitely fueled a new level of real estate insanity.
It’s a very difficult situation for many people who simply want to work or retire there. At this point, there is no indication things will change in the near future, and I understand their concerns not only for themselves, but for their children.
Personally, we prefer SoCal over the Bay Area for many reasons, even on days like this when the temp at the beach is 89 degrees.[/quote]
flyer, I’m not even interested in “retiring” to any “bay-area counties” anymore. I gave up on that idea more than ten years ago.
I was interested in the likes of Sebastapol, Healdsburg, Ukiah, Cloverdale . . . yikes . . . even Yountville! But when a soon-to-be-retiree can’t even purchase a ~1000 sf (possibly run down) older home (with or without garage) in these small towns for less than $500K (less than $700K in two of them), it’s time to develop a new plan. There has been such a dearth of listings in recent years on either side of the 101 all the way from the top of Marin County to the top of the state! What becomes available goes very fast (which is fine if I was able to act fast) and all cash (which is also fine if I was in a position to make an immediate offer). I don’t do bidding wars so I suspect I would be outgunned a few times before getting my offer accepted.
It seems as if I’m going to have to sell my home in SD County and rent something up there temporarily if I want to be in a position to pounce when necessary. Or to even poll resident homeowners of properties I would be interested in owning (as to their desire to sell now or in the future)
I never would have imagined that these sleepy little towns would be “desirable” as vacation and retirement havens for the well-heeled masses. Especially to those who already live an enviable semirural life on the SF Peninsula (read: Hillsborough, Atherton, Woodside, Saratoga, etc) but with the nation’s very best in entertainment, amenities and medical care at their fingertips.
I guess this cohort of my brethren boomers wants a little nest which is far enough away to get them “out of dodge” whenever they feel the need to escape from civilization :=0
Participant[quote=bibsoconner]Very comfortable in Ocean Beach right now. There’s a bit of a sea breeze bring in cool ocean air and the not unpleasant fragrance of cannabis.
No A/C for me, but may have to crack open a beer or stumble down the hill to the ocean.[/quote]
LOL . . . bibs . . . good you don’t have to scare up a parking space!
Near bayfront here, but warm and getting hotter. Only able to work outside after 6 pm. No AC … all windows open and three fans running is okay for now and okay for sleeping.
I’m going to get out of here to do some errands under A/C :=]
ParticipantThe Paragon charts speak loudly to the millions of “deep pocketed” residents in the area, esp those longtime residents of THREE counties (SF, Marin and SM). Notice that during the “Big Bubble” (2004 – 2007), it was the lower-end segment of housing (<=$510K) situated in FIVE bay area counties (incl the east bay counties of Contra Costa and Alameda) which suffered the biggest downturn. Why? It was due to the proliferation of NINA loans and other forms of predatory lending offered to a captive audience of homebuyers and highly leveraged “owners” who relied on purchase money mortgages and equity from their homes to send their kids to college, travel, buy vehicles etc, or just simply exist with a source of monthly income. (Buyers of mid-tier and higher-tier homes aren’t as reliant on mortgages for purchase money or “cash-out” needs.)
In SFR’s, those lower-end prices (<=$510K) actually haven't existed in SM, Marin and SF Counties since the early-mid nineties (and only in certain micro-areas). They existed in neighboring Santa Clara County up until late 2000. The middle tier of housing in the five counties ($510K to $925K) was hardly affected by the "Big Bubble." Its effect on the higher tier (above $925K) was short-lived and its values have now far exceeded those of the "Big Bubble." There have been no SFR tract subdivisions built in SM or Marin County for 35-50 years, depending on micro-area. Of course, SF County does not have any SFR tract subdivisions, except for possibly those 65+ year old tracts of "row homes" in SSF. IIRC, the only SFR tract subdivisions built in SM County in the past 45+ years were within its 1971 Foster City annexation which was dredged from a former landfill buried in marsh in the bay. The dearth of new construction over several decades and preservation of open space within SF, SM and Marin Counties heavily contributes to the exclusivity of residing there and the resultant high RE prices. In my mind, SF and Marin Counties are "recession-proof" and SM County's SFR stock is probably "recession proof" as well (no matter what happens in the tech sector). The reason being is that there are just too many well-established property owners in those counties (both in residence and non-resident) who are still alive and whose heirs will eventually utilize Props 58 and 193 to pass those properties to themselves with a very low assessment attached to them. I predict 90+% of them will never be listed as long as Props 13, 58 and 193 are still on CA’s books.
I’ve been looking online again recently (in June) at smallish houses to retire in in Norcal Counties (in mostly rural and semi-rural locales) and those thousands of well-established and deep-pocketed bay area residents have taken over this segment (my brethren boomers) and driven up the prices to over $700K in nearly all towns with a population of 1K or more which are within 60 miles of the coast. They buy them, furnish them and go there whichever weekends they can and let family members use them (for wine-tasting, biking thru the redwoods, etc). Virtually NONE are rented out. I’ve now been relegated to 1950’s ranch homes in South Lake Tahoe (almost too far for a bay area semi-retired person to go to for just 1-2 nights at a time), which is okay. But I feel if I don’t act fast, I’m going to be relegated to Carson City, NV or Truckee (ugh) or Redding/Yreka/Mt Shasta and surrounds, which are much too hot in the summers for my taste :=(
I can’t even buy back my modest (1530 sf) childhood (tract) home today (located 20 miles SE of Oakland) for which my parents paid $17K!
In some ways, I feel I made a huge life mistake back in the ’70’s when I returned to CA. My original plan was to return to the bay area. I had a good job lined up in Half Moon Bay (SM) through my current employer but my prospective roommate for that locale backed out at the last minute to enroll in University of Michigan (their home state). I ended up moving to SD County with a co-worker from La Mesa (who quickly moved back “home” after our arrival in SD to attend SDSU) … and the rest is history. I should have just moved to the SF peninsula by myself and taken the good job offer/transfer! Of course, I don’t regret my kids but I feel I would have been much better off today had I taken that route.
Participant[quote=SK in CV]111 where I am right now. Expected to match yesterday’s 117 by the end of the day. yippeeeeeee[/quote]
SK, you’re another one of those ex-coastal-dweller brave souls . . . much hardier than me, lol . . .
ParticipantNonethless, I’m reserving my usual road trip to see my people in America’s (humid) southwest “heartland” for October. I’m still trying to recover from the two-dozen-plus mosquito bites I got last week just walking around a supposedly “groomed and exterminated `community lake'” at dusk. Yes, I DID have repellent on but it didn’t do me much good 🙁
Besides, I ran out of “Chiggerex” and can’t buy any more here, lol ….
[img_assist|nid=25446|title=Chiggerex 2x Power|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=68|height=120]
ParticipantRegardless, we in SD County (yes, even those who reside in East County) are fortunate, MM. I was driving thru Las Vegas a week ago today, after spending the night in UT and became drowsy on the road. Luckily, I found an air-conditioned truck stop with a TV room to rest for a couple of hours because it was 117 outside with no shade to be found anywhere. Had I attempted to fall asleep in my (locked) car somewhere, it could have reached up to 160 degrees inside.
Good thing I didn’t have my dog with me on this trip.
LV is HUGE now but I don’t know how that population lives with the incessant, oppressive heat they have to deal with 8-9 months year. Especially the FIH’s/brian’s of the world who grew up on the coast, lol! Perhaps FIH makes several trips per month back to the CA coast during the hot months to get his “fix”?? I don’t blame him.
ParticipantI’ve always used very good quality Jabra wired earphones, and later, wireless bluetooth devices but am considering switching to a wired headseat with separate mouthpiece before my next road trip for the reasons mentioned above. I, too, talk on the phone a lot when I drive (and have recently learned to send voice-texts in my old age, lol).
ParticipantThe YMCA of SD County charges $40 month (no contract) for a single adult to work out 7 days per week. They’re open from 6 am to 10 pm M – F, 6 am to 7 pm Sat and 6 am to 5 pm Sun.
They have a HUGE amount of local deep-pocketed donors which equates to TONs of new circuit training equipment and dozens of fitness classes offered per week, all with certified instructors.
I’ve been working out there several times per week for almost 6 years (except when I’m on the road) and I love it!
The Y is even cheaper per person for couples and families with kids and also runs camps, daycare, after-school care, swimming lessons and other fitness programs for kids.
A member can quit at any time and if they sign up the first week of the year, their yearly membership fee is forever waived as long as they remain a member in good standing.
The Y’s pilates and yoga classes alone would cost $12 to $25 EACH if taken at a private studio. (Having rec’d groupons for a 6-8 class trial of these studio classes as gifts, I know this to be a fact.)
Edit: if you and/or your family members qualify as “low income,” you can get a discount on your monthly Y dues. Inquire within.
ParticipantBetween the two choices you listed:
If the “through street” is only two lanes with a yellow line(s) down the middle, then I would take the house and put up a short picket fence around the front yard to prevent your kids/dog from straying. If it is wider than that, I would not buy it for a residence, especially since you have small children. This house is bigger and will resell much better than a condo. You don’t have any control over a condo assn’s ability to raise HOA dues and demand special assessments over the years. You also don’t have any control over how many units are tenant-occupied, causing the complex’s units to be only cash purchases in the future.
However, I feel you could hang in there for a third choice …. that is, a SFR that DOES NOT suffer from “economic obsolescence” in the form of abutting a busy street. If you could find a 1650 to 2000 sf SFR listing nearby whose seller would accept a similarly-priced offer from you, then that would be the preferable choice, IMO. Don’t sweat the small stuff (needs new DW or HW heater, etc). Focus yourselves only on structural defects you will not accept, NOT BS small stuff you can fix for a a few hundred dollars.
You cannot fix a busy-street location or the fact that you will be only own a fractional interest of a condo complex in which you will have zero control over its mgmt decisions.
Another consideration is that a corner lot also takes 2-4x month mowing and more water than a lot in the middle of the block.
Edit: if the house you’re considering making an offer on is across the street (busy st side) from a school or strip mall, I would not consider it for a young family as there will be too much traffic and too many people on the side of your house at various hours of the day and night.
If it is situated across from a community rec center I would consider if the setback of the rec center and grounds was ample and it had ample parking.
Participant.. .This timely piece just in this morning:
The Death of the Starter Home
Money Talks News
Aug 11th 2015 5:00AM. . . In fact, you could argue — and I will — that starter homes are basically disappearing. They aren’t being built, and those that exist are either falling into functional disrepair (they are old), or more likely, being snapped up by investors to rent to young families.
First, a little housing lesson. Back in the postwar boom, America’s housing industry was on fire. Single-family housing starts jumped an incredible 400 percent during the decade. According to this great housing history, in 1950, the average price was $11,000. For perspective, median income, in real dollars, was about $3,300.
But here’s the number to watch: the average home was 963 square feet. A majority of homes had two bedrooms and one bathroom.
By 1972, prices had jumped to $30,000 while family income was nearly $10,000. Homes, which typically had three bedrooms and at least a bath and a half, now averaged 1,600 square feet. That kind of house can pretty comfortably shelter a family with 2.3 children. . .
[snip]
But that’s why there’s “used” homes, right? Young families are supposed to buy a needs-TLC place in their 20s, fix it up and trade up to their dream home later.
The problem is that cheaper, older starter homes are nearly as hard to find. Here’s one piece of evidence: The folks at RealtyTrac ran the numbers for me, and it turns out that year-to-date sales of sub-$200,000 homes is down this year compared to the last three years. That’s strange, given that sales above $200,000 are up. For example, two years ago, there were 395,000 sub-$200,000 homes sold from January to May. This year, there were only 343,000. Rising prices can’t account for more than a fraction of that drop.
Worse yet, families who would buy cheaper homes are being edged out by investors who buy the homes and rent them out. Nonoccupant buyers of single-family homes hit a record last quarter, according to RealtyTrac. . .
http://www.dailyfinance.com/2015/08/11/death-of-starter-homes/?ncid=engmodusport00000001
This is an excellent article about today’s buiders being unable to make a profit building “starter homes” and millennial first-time buyers (FTB’s) being “too picky” and unwilling to buy an older home is from a nationwide perspective but I still take umbrage with the message it is sending. I don’t believe builders have a “duty” to build “starter homes” or any type of home, for that matter. AFAIK, they can build whatever they can manage to secure permits for in a particular jurisdiction as well as whatever project also pencils out for them, attached or unattached.
I DO believe there are a sufficient number of “starter homes” in any given market (flipped and unflipped) for FTB’s to choose from (except in well-known expensive cities, such as SF and “resort areas”). The problem is that most agents who work with FTB’s carry no listings of their own, have little sales experience and tend to attempt to service buyers over a very wide area (ex: one whole or more large counties instead of a specialized micro-area) in attempt to eek out a living with little to no past referrals. Therefore, these agents don’t have relationships with agents in any particular micro-area and thus aren’t aware of any “pocket listings,” which are typically flipper-team-owned properties (where one “partner” on the team is an agent) or probate properties. THIS is where the “older” starter home inventory can be found and a FTB and/or their newbie agent across town would not know about these listings because they can’t see the sign in the yard of a property not listed on the MLS aggregators. (A CA agent can still write in a commission for themselves in an offer on a pocket listing.)
The article also infers that young dual-income couples today (residing in US real estate markets with a pop of over 500K) with a child and another on the way are now “stuck” in a “one-bedroom apt” essentially because no starter-home tracts are being built in the US today. I believe that presumption is patently false. When their lease is up, no tenant is “stuck” living anywhere. In SD County, these couples can easily go out and rent an older-but-partially-or-fully-remodeled 2-3 bdrm/1-2 bath “starter home” with a fenced backyard for their kid(s) for zero to $400 more a month (depending on area) than they are paying in rent for their “luxury” or “coastal” one-bdrm apt from one of the many buy-and-hold flipper teams around the county. This will accommodate their growing family while they save more downpayment and go through the laborious mental process of “getting real” about the local housing market they live in.
The REAL problem that I see here is that these whining millenial would-be buyers’ current apt often has granite countertops, underground parking, a pool, spa and a gym and this typical luxury apt inhabitant considers it a “downgrade” to rent a “starter SFR” just a bit inland or away from the high-rise hustle-bustle or both. According to the article, this phenomenon is prevalent all over the nation.
In my experience, FTB’s in CA coastal counties have never been “guaranteed” availability of new or newer construction to buy for their first home. Why should it be any different now? To get on the homeownership ladder, everyone has to start somewhere.
Participant[quote=thejard]I have a hard time justifying some of the prices in Chula (west 91910, 91911) that I see they are going for compared to just a year ago. Maybe we missed the boat?
In fact, we took our savings and plunked it into debt. But, because I really want to own I keep obsessing about this!
How did they get such a price on this one?
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/331-1st-Ave-Chula-Vista-CA-91910/17105110_zpid/or this one?
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/177-Shasta-St-Chula-Vista-CA-91910/17105487_zpid/or?
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/253-K-St-Chula-Vista-CA-91911/17108770_zpid/Are they cash buyers? FHA?
I just feel very deflated when it comes to me trying to get into something. Is it different this time? Or will there be a dip sometime in the next 5 years?
Spending that kind of money on something terrifies me lol; I’ve been driving the same car for 14 years now, so spending more than a $1k on a single thing scares me![/quote]
Uhh, thejard, these were all good buys with the first one being the best buy and I haven’t checked but all likely sold for all cash at these prices. (If I could stomach acting as my own property mgr, I might have purchased one of them.) All are completely walkable to all with multiple public transportation choices within 1-3 blocks walk with your 3rd sold comp link being the most conveniently located. All are in very safe, walkable, bikeable, skateboardable neighborhoods with mature-tree-lined sidewalks …. great places to raise a family!
Your first recent sold comp link for $305K on 1st Ave just north of G St is located on a very good street in a great area and has the typical 9700 sf lot of the area (up to 1 AC lots exist on 1st Ave and up to 2 AC lots exist on 2nd Ave in this area). Within 1.5 to 4 blocks of this home are dozens of homes valued at $850K to $2.7M (incl “move-on” Mills Act gems). This listing is directly adjacent to a very stately, shaded and beautiful area . . . absolutely THE “crown jewel” of Chula Vista.
Your second recent sold comp for $320K is a good-sized house, just one and two blocks respectively from two different bus lines (the stop for the one-block-away bus line is just one mile from the trolley stn). The subject is just 6-8 minute walk to Hilltop HS (taking the shortcut) and a 7-8 block walk to a regional mall anchored by Sears (incl BIG auto center), Macys and JCP. Much of Shasta St is overly obliterated with power lines but not this particular section.
Your third recent sold comp link for $340K is incredibly conveniently located, yet still very quiet. The houses around there have an average space between them of 20-30 feet, with the homes on adjacent 2nd Ave sporting an average of 35-50 feet between them. This home is on a very well-kept street sandwiched between the prestigious SD Country Club area (5-6 blocks to the east) and the reknowned Del Mar Mills Act corridor situated 1 block NW of this home on Del Mar Ave. A fabulous location, 1.5 blocks to large post office and cleaners, 2.5 blocks NW to Albertsons, 2 blocks to Fresh n Easy, 3 blocks to Sprouts and 7/11, and to the SW, 2.5 blocks to Wells Fargo, Haggen (fka “Vons”) and CVS. In addition, there are three large medical buildings in the immediate (2-3 block) vicinity, including a Quest Lab and numerous doctor’s offices. The South County Courthouse, County ARCC, and several banks are located 4-6 blocks northwest, J St Marina/boat launch just over one mile west and same regional mall as above is located 7 blocks NW of this home.
I’m not sure why you didn’t place offers on these properties if they were in your price range, thejard. I don’t think these prices will ever come around again, ESPecially if the new owners significantly modernize and/or improve them.
Perhaps your agent didn’t know the area well (or didn’t know what they were really looking at)?
If any of these three buyers took out 80%+ mortgages, then, IMO, these listings were absolutely the best an end-user buyer (taking out a mtg) could do at this price point in SD County.
I seriously doubt any of them went FHA, which has never been very widely used in SD County.
It doesn’t get any better in Chula Vista than those (April 2015) sold prices you linked here, thejard. Thanks for sharing them!
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