[Artifact]

If you end up renting (or buying) – I would look in the University City area – north of 52 along Govenor drive. There are areas there that the prices are very high but others you could certainly rent affordably if you can afford a 550K home. The schools are good and the commute to both downtown and La Jolla would be good relatively speaking. La Jolla would be 10 minutes and downtown would be pretty short as well.

I think there are a couple of areas just south of 52 that are okay, but I do not think the schools (lower grades) are as good.

[Artifact]

Figures: Despite the decreasing rate for new short sales, it is still increasing each week despite the decreasing total inventory. From a purely qualitative point of view it almost looks like the short sales are lagging the listings by about a month – the next month will be interesting to see if the short sales actually start to decrease or if those represent a different market than the “normal” listings.

[img_assist|nid=5324|title= Short Sales and Total Listings|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=322]
[img_assist|nid=5325|title= Percent Change and Perent Short of Total|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=322]

[Artifact]

Figures: Despite the decreasing rate for new short sales, it is still increasing each week despite the decreasing total inventory. From a purely qualitative point of view it almost looks like the short sales are lagging the listings by about a month – the next month will be interesting to see if the short sales actually start to decrease or if those represent a different market than the “normal” listings.

[img_assist|nid=5324|title= Short Sales and Total Listings|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=322]
[img_assist|nid=5325|title= Percent Change and Perent Short of Total|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=322]

[Artifact]

Figures: Despite the decreasing rate for new short sales, it is still increasing each week despite the decreasing total inventory. From a purely qualitative point of view it almost looks like the short sales are lagging the listings by about a month – the next month will be interesting to see if the short sales actually start to decrease or if those represent a different market than the “normal” listings.

[img_assist|nid=5324|title= Short Sales and Total Listings|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=322]
[img_assist|nid=5325|title= Percent Change and Perent Short of Total|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=322]

[Artifact]

Roving figures – I took my family up to Orange County where some friends parents live – larger home pre-equipped for grandkids! We could have gone back today but are putting it off until tomorrow morning to let the situation stabilize a little more and the air to clear up some with the winds blowing off the ocean!

As for the figures – I agree that it looks like the overall inventory is dropping for the season – maybe even the short sales are beginning to slow down – I would guess that the extra days would not have mattered with the fires shutting so many things down –

As an aside: I love the news I get – trying to watch the news for relevant fire information and the news ticker is listing which chargers and padres have been evacuated – very useful – then I have been following the sign on san diego blog page (which has mostly been pretty useful) – I was VERY glad to know that the Jennifer Lopez concert was cancelled so I could change my plans AND that the mall was open so I have a place to go shopping – so much for stay home if you don’t need to be out!

Anyway, here are the figures:

[img_assist|nid=5262|title= Short Sales and Total Inventory|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=337]
[img_assist|nid=5263|title= Percent Change and Percent Short of Total|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=337]

[Artifact]

Roving figures – I took my family up to Orange County where some friends parents live – larger home pre-equipped for grandkids! We could have gone back today but are putting it off until tomorrow morning to let the situation stabilize a little more and the air to clear up some with the winds blowing off the ocean!

As for the figures – I agree that it looks like the overall inventory is dropping for the season – maybe even the short sales are beginning to slow down – I would guess that the extra days would not have mattered with the fires shutting so many things down –

As an aside: I love the news I get – trying to watch the news for relevant fire information and the news ticker is listing which chargers and padres have been evacuated – very useful – then I have been following the sign on san diego blog page (which has mostly been pretty useful) – I was VERY glad to know that the Jennifer Lopez concert was cancelled so I could change my plans AND that the mall was open so I have a place to go shopping – so much for stay home if you don’t need to be out!

Anyway, here are the figures:

[img_assist|nid=5262|title= Short Sales and Total Inventory|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=337]
[img_assist|nid=5263|title= Percent Change and Percent Short of Total|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=337]

[Artifact]

Roving figures – I took my family up to Orange County where some friends parents live – larger home pre-equipped for grandkids! We could have gone back today but are putting it off until tomorrow morning to let the situation stabilize a little more and the air to clear up some with the winds blowing off the ocean!

As for the figures – I agree that it looks like the overall inventory is dropping for the season – maybe even the short sales are beginning to slow down – I would guess that the extra days would not have mattered with the fires shutting so many things down –

As an aside: I love the news I get – trying to watch the news for relevant fire information and the news ticker is listing which chargers and padres have been evacuated – very useful – then I have been following the sign on san diego blog page (which has mostly been pretty useful) – I was VERY glad to know that the Jennifer Lopez concert was cancelled so I could change my plans AND that the mall was open so I have a place to go shopping – so much for stay home if you don’t need to be out!

Anyway, here are the figures:

[img_assist|nid=5262|title= Short Sales and Total Inventory|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=337]
[img_assist|nid=5263|title= Percent Change and Percent Short of Total|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=337]

[Artifact]

Figures – the percent change is back to a more normal number after last weeks spike due to two weeks numbers being reported at once.

The most obvious thing to note is that despite a drop in total listings, the number of short sale listings is still increasing. How many of those are price reductions and how many are new listings? I think it hints at how many sellers out there are possibly right at the edge of being upside down –

[img_assist|nid=5194|title= Total listings and short sales|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=307]
[img_assist|nid=5195|title= Percent change and percent short of total|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=307]

[Artifact]

Figures – the percent change is back to a more normal number after last weeks spike due to two weeks numbers being reported at once.

The most obvious thing to note is that despite a drop in total listings, the number of short sale listings is still increasing. How many of those are price reductions and how many are new listings? I think it hints at how many sellers out there are possibly right at the edge of being upside down –

[img_assist|nid=5194|title= Total listings and short sales|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=307]
[img_assist|nid=5195|title= Percent change and percent short of total|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=307]

[Artifact]

As a follow up from Rich’s last post – I plotted out the Sandicor Sales data back to 1999 to compare the seasonal variability – I don’t think a lot needs to be said about this figure – sales are at the lowest point for all of the data I had and 2007 has been very low across the board – lower in every month than in any of the previous 7 years.

[img_assist|nid=5078|title= Monthly Sales Data from Sandicor|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=362]

[Artifact]

As a follow up from Rich’s last post – I plotted out the Sandicor Sales data back to 1999 to compare the seasonal variability – I don’t think a lot needs to be said about this figure – sales are at the lowest point for all of the data I had and 2007 has been very low across the board – lower in every month than in any of the previous 7 years.

[img_assist|nid=5078|title= Monthly Sales Data from Sandicor|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=362]

[Artifact]

Figures:

Nothing new as usual – interesting that even with inventory decreasing slightly the short sales are still going up – meaning that we have gotten to the point where more than 25% of the listings in this query are listed as short sales –

Edit: As a note – I did allow for the skipped week in the figures, but the very high percent change is biased by two weeks worth of data – divide that in half and it is probably closer to correct. But it does still lok like there has been a slight inflection in the short sales again – need a few more weeks to see what is going on there.

[img_assist|nid=5075|title= Short Sales and Total Listings|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=312]
[img_assist|nid=5076|title= Percent Change and Percent Short of Total|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=300]

[Artifact]

Figures:

Nothing new as usual – interesting that even with inventory decreasing slightly the short sales are still going up – meaning that we have gotten to the point where more than 25% of the listings in this query are listed as short sales –

Edit: As a note – I did allow for the skipped week in the figures, but the very high percent change is biased by two weeks worth of data – divide that in half and it is probably closer to correct. But it does still lok like there has been a slight inflection in the short sales again – need a few more weeks to see what is going on there.

[img_assist|nid=5075|title= Short Sales and Total Listings|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=312]
[img_assist|nid=5076|title= Percent Change and Percent Short of Total|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=300]

[Artifact]

Here is one in Escondido:

843 Daisy Street, Escondido (http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-071065229-843_Daisy_St_Escondido_CA_92027)

Listed at 299,000 to 350,000
Bought 1/10/2006 for 480,000

That is 37.8% off at 299K (27% at 350k)

It only gives sales history of the one sale though, so it is a little strange – but in the 2 months it has been on the market (roughly) they have dropped the asking price from 450K to 495K all the way to the current price.

[Artifact]

I am always torn when people whose homes are on the cliffs – or in this case directly overlooking a fault line – have things eventually happen – yes it sucks for them, but if you live on a beach cliff, eventually your house will go in – you just live there knowing that and hope it happens long after you are gone – same goes for living on a fault line. Those homes on the side of Mt. Soledad have a beautiful view because the Rose Canyon fault runs along beneath their homes and in essence is the cause of Mt. Soledad – the fault runs up the 5, under La Jolla Parkway and out to sea as the La Jolla Canyon offshore – You enjoy the view, but you have to know that you are living in an area of high geologic hazards – slides, earthquakes, etc.

So yes, I feel bad for them that their houses are being lost, but those families bought homes there knowing the risk and decided the view/status was worth that risk, so any sympathy for them has to be tempered some in my opinion. If they say they did not know the risk, then they did not do their due diligence. The existence of the risks of living there have been known for a long time.

[Author]

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