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July 22, 2007 at 6:12 PM in reply to: NEED your input, About to buy a new Pienza home in 4S Ranch #67047July 22, 2007 at 6:12 PM in reply to: NEED your input, About to buy a new Pienza home in 4S Ranch #67112
Allan from Fallbrook
ParticipantGeez, John, don’t hold back. Tell me what you’re really thinking!
You’re right about one thing, though: All the sound financial thinking in the world is trumped by maternal instinct.
It is hard to imagine any sort of justification for buying right now. I know the tenor of most of the posters here is decidedly bearish (myself among them), but the constant stream of news about the present (and upcoming) bloodletting is quite easy to interpret. Even the usual propaganda sources (NAR, Mortgage Bankers Assn, the UT) are dour, and no amount of white washing can conceal what appears to be a disaster in the making.
Again, might be just me, but I don’t think so. Watching Bernanke’s gyrations regarding interest rates and inflationary/pricing pressures, one is left with the real sense that the NASDAQ/dot.bomb bust is gonna be a piker compared to this one. This guy would literally prefer to cut off his own arm than raise interest rates again.
July 22, 2007 at 3:57 PM in reply to: NEED your input, About to buy a new Pienza home in 4S Ranch #67009ParticipantNot trying to sound dense or anything, but reading the thread, as well as the other blogspot on 4S Ranch (http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/search/label/4S%20Ranch?max-results=20), it appears that pricing there is heading into the tank.
Given the sheer number of NODs and foreclosures, I would think waiting beyond even winter is a good idea. Factor in the number of upcoming resets in early to mid-2008 and it looks to get far, far worse.
Or am I missing something here?
July 22, 2007 at 3:57 PM in reply to: NEED your input, About to buy a new Pienza home in 4S Ranch #67074ParticipantNot trying to sound dense or anything, but reading the thread, as well as the other blogspot on 4S Ranch (http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/search/label/4S%20Ranch?max-results=20), it appears that pricing there is heading into the tank.
Given the sheer number of NODs and foreclosures, I would think waiting beyond even winter is a good idea. Factor in the number of upcoming resets in early to mid-2008 and it looks to get far, far worse.
Or am I missing something here?
ParticipantSpring article from The Economist on housing. Main focus is America, but it addresses housing markets internationally, including those most likely to experience some pain.
Perry, somewhat off topic: There are trade reps from Macedonia making the rounds right now touting the benefits of moving one’s business there. Benefits/perks include low personal and corporate tax rate, upgraded infrastructure and access to Central Europe and the Balkans. Concurrent with this, they are also discussing improvements being made in the residential and commercial property sectors. I wonder if they would throw in one of those beach houses in Montenegro.
Link to article:
http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8888776
ParticipantSpring article from The Economist on housing. Main focus is America, but it addresses housing markets internationally, including those most likely to experience some pain.
Perry, somewhat off topic: There are trade reps from Macedonia making the rounds right now touting the benefits of moving one’s business there. Benefits/perks include low personal and corporate tax rate, upgraded infrastructure and access to Central Europe and the Balkans. Concurrent with this, they are also discussing improvements being made in the residential and commercial property sectors. I wonder if they would throw in one of those beach houses in Montenegro.
Link to article:
http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8888776
July 20, 2007 at 4:10 PM in reply to: Everyone can relax, Fed claims subprime losses contained #66767ParticipantIt used to be that being a small government fiscal conservative meant being a Republican. However, after Bush Jr that has all changed. The party has truly lost its way and, unfortunately, the Dems are no different.
Both are pandering to their respective bases, and anyone in the middle (moderate to center/right) is left out in the cold.
I also agree that Bush Sr was an adept statesman, as evidenced by his nearly excellent handling of Gulf War I. I say nearly because he failed to finish the job and left the mess for Junior to handle. Or, more accurately, horribly mishandle.
Well, at least Fred Dalton Thompson will ride in to save the day, right? Or is it Giuliani? McCain?
July 20, 2007 at 4:10 PM in reply to: Everyone can relax, Fed claims subprime losses contained #66832ParticipantIt used to be that being a small government fiscal conservative meant being a Republican. However, after Bush Jr that has all changed. The party has truly lost its way and, unfortunately, the Dems are no different.
Both are pandering to their respective bases, and anyone in the middle (moderate to center/right) is left out in the cold.
I also agree that Bush Sr was an adept statesman, as evidenced by his nearly excellent handling of Gulf War I. I say nearly because he failed to finish the job and left the mess for Junior to handle. Or, more accurately, horribly mishandle.
Well, at least Fred Dalton Thompson will ride in to save the day, right? Or is it Giuliani? McCain?
July 20, 2007 at 2:03 PM in reply to: Everyone can relax, Fed claims subprime losses contained #66738Participantbeanmaestro: Poor Bush Jr. You know it’s bad when you get castigated by Jimmy Carter!
Course, for a former blow monkey alky who is prone to fits of cronyism and jingoism, he hasn’t done all that badly. I mean combining the worst parts of Nixonian Republicanism with a wrong-headed interpretation of Gunboat Diplomacy hasn’t taken us completely off-track. Right?
And, yes, believe it or not, I am a Republican.
July 20, 2007 at 2:03 PM in reply to: Everyone can relax, Fed claims subprime losses contained #66802Participantbeanmaestro: Poor Bush Jr. You know it’s bad when you get castigated by Jimmy Carter!
Course, for a former blow monkey alky who is prone to fits of cronyism and jingoism, he hasn’t done all that badly. I mean combining the worst parts of Nixonian Republicanism with a wrong-headed interpretation of Gunboat Diplomacy hasn’t taken us completely off-track. Right?
And, yes, believe it or not, I am a Republican.
July 20, 2007 at 1:57 PM in reply to: Everyone can relax, Fed claims subprime losses contained #66734ParticipantPerry: After 15 years, it ain’t only the memory that is fading!
On a more serious note: It appears that Bernanke is almost religiously opposed to admitting there are significant pricing pressures out there and the effects that these are having on the economy as a whole.
I agree that I can’t imagine the Fed coming out now and admitting that Greenspan’s reckless monetary policy landed us in this mess and, more importantly, discussing the stringent steps necessary to help fix it.
While I never thought Bernanke was “his own man”, I certainly didn’t think he was imbibing the Kool-Aid to this extent. Then again, why not?
July 20, 2007 at 1:57 PM in reply to: Everyone can relax, Fed claims subprime losses contained #66798ParticipantPerry: After 15 years, it ain’t only the memory that is fading!
On a more serious note: It appears that Bernanke is almost religiously opposed to admitting there are significant pricing pressures out there and the effects that these are having on the economy as a whole.
I agree that I can’t imagine the Fed coming out now and admitting that Greenspan’s reckless monetary policy landed us in this mess and, more importantly, discussing the stringent steps necessary to help fix it.
While I never thought Bernanke was “his own man”, I certainly didn’t think he was imbibing the Kool-Aid to this extent. Then again, why not?
ParticipantTwo of the more respected voices in the market, Warren Buffett and Bill Gross (at PIMCO) have been yelling about the derivatives situation for a while now.
As far as avoidable: Absolutely. However, the big investment houses and banks were too busy chasing the shiny to sit down and do any serious diligence and the ratings firms were too busy making money hand over fist slapping AAA ratings on this worthless trash to pay any serious attention either.
Somewhat off topic, but interesting nonetheless, will be the impact of Basel-2 regs regarding AAA rated instruments. Quite a few banks had been amassing AAA rated CDOs as a way to lessen capital reserve requirements.
Now that S&P, Moody’s and Fitch’s have stopped going along with the “charade”, it will be curious to note the fallout in other market sectors, as well.
ParticipantTwo of the more respected voices in the market, Warren Buffett and Bill Gross (at PIMCO) have been yelling about the derivatives situation for a while now.
As far as avoidable: Absolutely. However, the big investment houses and banks were too busy chasing the shiny to sit down and do any serious diligence and the ratings firms were too busy making money hand over fist slapping AAA ratings on this worthless trash to pay any serious attention either.
Somewhat off topic, but interesting nonetheless, will be the impact of Basel-2 regs regarding AAA rated instruments. Quite a few banks had been amassing AAA rated CDOs as a way to lessen capital reserve requirements.
Now that S&P, Moody’s and Fitch’s have stopped going along with the “charade”, it will be curious to note the fallout in other market sectors, as well.
ParticipantForgive an apparently ignorant question, but what is the CORE scam?
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