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Allan from Fallbrook
ParticipantTG: Hey, thank God we haven’t hijacked this thread, too! Well, we at least have plausible deniability because SDR admitted he was going to do it!
That disclaimer out of the way, I would point out (in no particular order): The Colts did beat NE right up until the end and, save a few errant plays, clearly won in all phases of the game. The Giants most definitely watched the Eagles – NE game and applied the same defensive formula (pressure Brady, don’t allow WRs to get a clean release).
You can run on these guys. The Ravens did it quite effectively. That was another game where Billick had them on the ropes and they let up. You cannot do it with a team this good. They are a battle-hardened, veteran team and totally ruthless. I pointed out to my wife that (imho) the key difference between Manning and Brady is that Manning is a nice guy. Brady isn’t. He is very cold and calculating and merciless.
They aren’t invincible, though, and as the season moves on the chinks in the armor are more apparent, as TG pointed out.
Cris Collinsworth is definitely one of the best analysts out there. I also like Dan Dierdorf. He has a no-nonsense, player-derived perspective that I enjoy. I think John Madden has gone insane, or at least senile. Someone out to take that telestrator away from him before he hurts someone.
ParticipantTG: Hey, thank God we haven’t hijacked this thread, too! Well, we at least have plausible deniability because SDR admitted he was going to do it!
That disclaimer out of the way, I would point out (in no particular order): The Colts did beat NE right up until the end and, save a few errant plays, clearly won in all phases of the game. The Giants most definitely watched the Eagles – NE game and applied the same defensive formula (pressure Brady, don’t allow WRs to get a clean release).
You can run on these guys. The Ravens did it quite effectively. That was another game where Billick had them on the ropes and they let up. You cannot do it with a team this good. They are a battle-hardened, veteran team and totally ruthless. I pointed out to my wife that (imho) the key difference between Manning and Brady is that Manning is a nice guy. Brady isn’t. He is very cold and calculating and merciless.
They aren’t invincible, though, and as the season moves on the chinks in the armor are more apparent, as TG pointed out.
Cris Collinsworth is definitely one of the best analysts out there. I also like Dan Dierdorf. He has a no-nonsense, player-derived perspective that I enjoy. I think John Madden has gone insane, or at least senile. Someone out to take that telestrator away from him before he hurts someone.
ParticipantTG: Hey, thank God we haven’t hijacked this thread, too! Well, we at least have plausible deniability because SDR admitted he was going to do it!
That disclaimer out of the way, I would point out (in no particular order): The Colts did beat NE right up until the end and, save a few errant plays, clearly won in all phases of the game. The Giants most definitely watched the Eagles – NE game and applied the same defensive formula (pressure Brady, don’t allow WRs to get a clean release).
You can run on these guys. The Ravens did it quite effectively. That was another game where Billick had them on the ropes and they let up. You cannot do it with a team this good. They are a battle-hardened, veteran team and totally ruthless. I pointed out to my wife that (imho) the key difference between Manning and Brady is that Manning is a nice guy. Brady isn’t. He is very cold and calculating and merciless.
They aren’t invincible, though, and as the season moves on the chinks in the armor are more apparent, as TG pointed out.
Cris Collinsworth is definitely one of the best analysts out there. I also like Dan Dierdorf. He has a no-nonsense, player-derived perspective that I enjoy. I think John Madden has gone insane, or at least senile. Someone out to take that telestrator away from him before he hurts someone.
ParticipantSDR: As a Raiders fan, I hate the Patsies worse than cancer. In my opinion, they stole a Superbowl from us with that frickin’ Tuck Rule bs.
You have to give the devil his due, though. That is one helluva football team. The Giants had them on the ropes, and then eased up. You cannot do that with a team of this caliber. And that DB for the Giants, Butler. What the hell was he thinking?!? You let Moss get behind you and it is all over.
I still say the Chargers and the Jags are two of the more dangerous teams in the AFC playoffs. Of course, I will be rooting for the Silver and Black tomorrow. Not that it will do any good, of course…
ParticipantSDR: As a Raiders fan, I hate the Patsies worse than cancer. In my opinion, they stole a Superbowl from us with that frickin’ Tuck Rule bs.
You have to give the devil his due, though. That is one helluva football team. The Giants had them on the ropes, and then eased up. You cannot do that with a team of this caliber. And that DB for the Giants, Butler. What the hell was he thinking?!? You let Moss get behind you and it is all over.
I still say the Chargers and the Jags are two of the more dangerous teams in the AFC playoffs. Of course, I will be rooting for the Silver and Black tomorrow. Not that it will do any good, of course…
ParticipantSDR: As a Raiders fan, I hate the Patsies worse than cancer. In my opinion, they stole a Superbowl from us with that frickin’ Tuck Rule bs.
You have to give the devil his due, though. That is one helluva football team. The Giants had them on the ropes, and then eased up. You cannot do that with a team of this caliber. And that DB for the Giants, Butler. What the hell was he thinking?!? You let Moss get behind you and it is all over.
I still say the Chargers and the Jags are two of the more dangerous teams in the AFC playoffs. Of course, I will be rooting for the Silver and Black tomorrow. Not that it will do any good, of course…
ParticipantSDR: As a Raiders fan, I hate the Patsies worse than cancer. In my opinion, they stole a Superbowl from us with that frickin’ Tuck Rule bs.
You have to give the devil his due, though. That is one helluva football team. The Giants had them on the ropes, and then eased up. You cannot do that with a team of this caliber. And that DB for the Giants, Butler. What the hell was he thinking?!? You let Moss get behind you and it is all over.
I still say the Chargers and the Jags are two of the more dangerous teams in the AFC playoffs. Of course, I will be rooting for the Silver and Black tomorrow. Not that it will do any good, of course…
ParticipantSDR: As a Raiders fan, I hate the Patsies worse than cancer. In my opinion, they stole a Superbowl from us with that frickin’ Tuck Rule bs.
You have to give the devil his due, though. That is one helluva football team. The Giants had them on the ropes, and then eased up. You cannot do that with a team of this caliber. And that DB for the Giants, Butler. What the hell was he thinking?!? You let Moss get behind you and it is all over.
I still say the Chargers and the Jags are two of the more dangerous teams in the AFC playoffs. Of course, I will be rooting for the Silver and Black tomorrow. Not that it will do any good, of course…
ParticipantSDR: Bubba99 makes the point I was getting at relative to the FED doing everything in it’s power to head this event off.
Daniel’s presumption of equally balanced positions is erroneous in that quite a few of these hedge funds, and equity funds and investment banks have little to no understanding of how the derivatives will function in the event of a full-blown crisis (in point of fact, no one knows because it hasn’t happened). So, it will be a very interesting six months to year coming up. The FED and the ECB are pushing considerable liquidity into the market, and the response to date has been muted.
If you are interested in a pair of good books on the subject, read “A Demon of Our Design” and “Traders, Guns and Money”. The first is on hedge funds, and the second is on derivatives. Both are well-written and equally alarming in their own way.
I agree with you regarding not being a Chicken Little, but there is significant concern out there, and for very good reason. I penned a recollection of mine on another thread about being approached in 1994 to purchase derivative products. I was CFO of an insurance brokerage in Orange County, and these were all the rage after the OC Comptroller (Citron) had bought in. I was absolutely baffled during the presentation, as was my boss (the CEO). He was a former Bear Stearns guy, and an MBA from Ohio State, and equally confused. Very arcane stuff, and if the Chairman of the FED requires a remedial course…
ParticipantSDR: Bubba99 makes the point I was getting at relative to the FED doing everything in it’s power to head this event off.
Daniel’s presumption of equally balanced positions is erroneous in that quite a few of these hedge funds, and equity funds and investment banks have little to no understanding of how the derivatives will function in the event of a full-blown crisis (in point of fact, no one knows because it hasn’t happened). So, it will be a very interesting six months to year coming up. The FED and the ECB are pushing considerable liquidity into the market, and the response to date has been muted.
If you are interested in a pair of good books on the subject, read “A Demon of Our Design” and “Traders, Guns and Money”. The first is on hedge funds, and the second is on derivatives. Both are well-written and equally alarming in their own way.
I agree with you regarding not being a Chicken Little, but there is significant concern out there, and for very good reason. I penned a recollection of mine on another thread about being approached in 1994 to purchase derivative products. I was CFO of an insurance brokerage in Orange County, and these were all the rage after the OC Comptroller (Citron) had bought in. I was absolutely baffled during the presentation, as was my boss (the CEO). He was a former Bear Stearns guy, and an MBA from Ohio State, and equally confused. Very arcane stuff, and if the Chairman of the FED requires a remedial course…
ParticipantSDR: Bubba99 makes the point I was getting at relative to the FED doing everything in it’s power to head this event off.
Daniel’s presumption of equally balanced positions is erroneous in that quite a few of these hedge funds, and equity funds and investment banks have little to no understanding of how the derivatives will function in the event of a full-blown crisis (in point of fact, no one knows because it hasn’t happened). So, it will be a very interesting six months to year coming up. The FED and the ECB are pushing considerable liquidity into the market, and the response to date has been muted.
If you are interested in a pair of good books on the subject, read “A Demon of Our Design” and “Traders, Guns and Money”. The first is on hedge funds, and the second is on derivatives. Both are well-written and equally alarming in their own way.
I agree with you regarding not being a Chicken Little, but there is significant concern out there, and for very good reason. I penned a recollection of mine on another thread about being approached in 1994 to purchase derivative products. I was CFO of an insurance brokerage in Orange County, and these were all the rage after the OC Comptroller (Citron) had bought in. I was absolutely baffled during the presentation, as was my boss (the CEO). He was a former Bear Stearns guy, and an MBA from Ohio State, and equally confused. Very arcane stuff, and if the Chairman of the FED requires a remedial course…
ParticipantSDR: Bubba99 makes the point I was getting at relative to the FED doing everything in it’s power to head this event off.
Daniel’s presumption of equally balanced positions is erroneous in that quite a few of these hedge funds, and equity funds and investment banks have little to no understanding of how the derivatives will function in the event of a full-blown crisis (in point of fact, no one knows because it hasn’t happened). So, it will be a very interesting six months to year coming up. The FED and the ECB are pushing considerable liquidity into the market, and the response to date has been muted.
If you are interested in a pair of good books on the subject, read “A Demon of Our Design” and “Traders, Guns and Money”. The first is on hedge funds, and the second is on derivatives. Both are well-written and equally alarming in their own way.
I agree with you regarding not being a Chicken Little, but there is significant concern out there, and for very good reason. I penned a recollection of mine on another thread about being approached in 1994 to purchase derivative products. I was CFO of an insurance brokerage in Orange County, and these were all the rage after the OC Comptroller (Citron) had bought in. I was absolutely baffled during the presentation, as was my boss (the CEO). He was a former Bear Stearns guy, and an MBA from Ohio State, and equally confused. Very arcane stuff, and if the Chairman of the FED requires a remedial course…
ParticipantSDR: Bubba99 makes the point I was getting at relative to the FED doing everything in it’s power to head this event off.
Daniel’s presumption of equally balanced positions is erroneous in that quite a few of these hedge funds, and equity funds and investment banks have little to no understanding of how the derivatives will function in the event of a full-blown crisis (in point of fact, no one knows because it hasn’t happened). So, it will be a very interesting six months to year coming up. The FED and the ECB are pushing considerable liquidity into the market, and the response to date has been muted.
If you are interested in a pair of good books on the subject, read “A Demon of Our Design” and “Traders, Guns and Money”. The first is on hedge funds, and the second is on derivatives. Both are well-written and equally alarming in their own way.
I agree with you regarding not being a Chicken Little, but there is significant concern out there, and for very good reason. I penned a recollection of mine on another thread about being approached in 1994 to purchase derivative products. I was CFO of an insurance brokerage in Orange County, and these were all the rage after the OC Comptroller (Citron) had bought in. I was absolutely baffled during the presentation, as was my boss (the CEO). He was a former Bear Stearns guy, and an MBA from Ohio State, and equally confused. Very arcane stuff, and if the Chairman of the FED requires a remedial course…
ParticipantDaniel: That’s correct, but with a caveat. It presupposes that in case of a correction, the various positions will not unwind in a disorderly fashion. This would be akin to what happened with LTCM in ’98. These various hedged positions are built using computer models that have not been tested in a full-blown crisis.
Moreover, many of the supposed “controls” (like insurance) are at grave risk due to both a lack of understanding and a lack of transparency.
Bernanke himself had to undergo a refresher course recently in this area. This is a very arcane area of finance, and many of the hedge fund players have been very lucky up to this point. The markets are under increasingly severe strain and, due to a lack of real-world testing for these computer models, there is a great deal of concern over what might happen.
I don’t think it is any surprise that Buffett has jumped into the monoline insurance/reinsurance market. There is a great amount of fear out there, which means there is a great deal of money to be made.
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