[Allan from Fallbrook]

afx: You know that Putin, ex-KGB officer that he is, is licking his chops at the prospect of destabilization in the region. The Soviets had numerous contingency plans drawn up during the Cold War for exactly this type, or these types, of scenario(s).

I’m more curious about the Chinese. They are starting to feel their oats and the nationalistic vitriol accompanying the run-up to the Olympic Games shows what path they are on.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

afx: You know that Putin, ex-KGB officer that he is, is licking his chops at the prospect of destabilization in the region. The Soviets had numerous contingency plans drawn up during the Cold War for exactly this type, or these types, of scenario(s).

I’m more curious about the Chinese. They are starting to feel their oats and the nationalistic vitriol accompanying the run-up to the Olympic Games shows what path they are on.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

afx: You know that Putin, ex-KGB officer that he is, is licking his chops at the prospect of destabilization in the region. The Soviets had numerous contingency plans drawn up during the Cold War for exactly this type, or these types, of scenario(s).

I’m more curious about the Chinese. They are starting to feel their oats and the nationalistic vitriol accompanying the run-up to the Olympic Games shows what path they are on.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

afx: You know that Putin, ex-KGB officer that he is, is licking his chops at the prospect of destabilization in the region. The Soviets had numerous contingency plans drawn up during the Cold War for exactly this type, or these types, of scenario(s).

I’m more curious about the Chinese. They are starting to feel their oats and the nationalistic vitriol accompanying the run-up to the Olympic Games shows what path they are on.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

gandalf: By Clark, you’re meaning Wesley Clark, right? I have some issues with he, and the other Clarke (Richard Clarke). Suffice it to say, both have some fairly cumbersome baggage dating back to their days with the Clinton Administration.

I do the see the parallel you mention. My main worry about Israel is that they are the wild card in this equation. I don’t doubt for a second that they are going to act unilaterally to remove Iran’s nuke capability. They have done so in the past with both Iraq and Syria, and I would think that they view Iran as a larger threat than the both of those two combined. I don’t know if Olmert is just making a lot of noise to scare Iran into compliance, but I really get the sense that he is serious. If that proves to be the case, it could ignite a much larger regional conflagration, and one the Russians would hasten to exploit.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

gandalf: By Clark, you’re meaning Wesley Clark, right? I have some issues with he, and the other Clarke (Richard Clarke). Suffice it to say, both have some fairly cumbersome baggage dating back to their days with the Clinton Administration.

I do the see the parallel you mention. My main worry about Israel is that they are the wild card in this equation. I don’t doubt for a second that they are going to act unilaterally to remove Iran’s nuke capability. They have done so in the past with both Iraq and Syria, and I would think that they view Iran as a larger threat than the both of those two combined. I don’t know if Olmert is just making a lot of noise to scare Iran into compliance, but I really get the sense that he is serious. If that proves to be the case, it could ignite a much larger regional conflagration, and one the Russians would hasten to exploit.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

gandalf: By Clark, you’re meaning Wesley Clark, right? I have some issues with he, and the other Clarke (Richard Clarke). Suffice it to say, both have some fairly cumbersome baggage dating back to their days with the Clinton Administration.

I do the see the parallel you mention. My main worry about Israel is that they are the wild card in this equation. I don’t doubt for a second that they are going to act unilaterally to remove Iran’s nuke capability. They have done so in the past with both Iraq and Syria, and I would think that they view Iran as a larger threat than the both of those two combined. I don’t know if Olmert is just making a lot of noise to scare Iran into compliance, but I really get the sense that he is serious. If that proves to be the case, it could ignite a much larger regional conflagration, and one the Russians would hasten to exploit.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

gandalf: By Clark, you’re meaning Wesley Clark, right? I have some issues with he, and the other Clarke (Richard Clarke). Suffice it to say, both have some fairly cumbersome baggage dating back to their days with the Clinton Administration.

I do the see the parallel you mention. My main worry about Israel is that they are the wild card in this equation. I don’t doubt for a second that they are going to act unilaterally to remove Iran’s nuke capability. They have done so in the past with both Iraq and Syria, and I would think that they view Iran as a larger threat than the both of those two combined. I don’t know if Olmert is just making a lot of noise to scare Iran into compliance, but I really get the sense that he is serious. If that proves to be the case, it could ignite a much larger regional conflagration, and one the Russians would hasten to exploit.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

gandalf: By Clark, you’re meaning Wesley Clark, right? I have some issues with he, and the other Clarke (Richard Clarke). Suffice it to say, both have some fairly cumbersome baggage dating back to their days with the Clinton Administration.

I do the see the parallel you mention. My main worry about Israel is that they are the wild card in this equation. I don’t doubt for a second that they are going to act unilaterally to remove Iran’s nuke capability. They have done so in the past with both Iraq and Syria, and I would think that they view Iran as a larger threat than the both of those two combined. I don’t know if Olmert is just making a lot of noise to scare Iran into compliance, but I really get the sense that he is serious. If that proves to be the case, it could ignite a much larger regional conflagration, and one the Russians would hasten to exploit.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

gandalf: Sweet Jesus, you’re one of those East Coast intelligentsia types, aren’t you? You’re probably flipping through the “Village Voice” right now, and buying organic foodstuffs from Vermont, or, even worse, CANADA!

My God, it all becomes so clear!

It’s kind of funny. I grew up in the SF/Bay Area, out in Santa Clara County (which, by way of reference, is very much like Orange County in terms of demographics and voting), so there has always been this presumption that if you’re from that part of the world, you’re liberal. Not so much. But we were also next door to Palo Alto and Stanford, which has always had a combustible and schizophrenic mix of diehard leftist profs, libertarian entrepreneurs and conservative pro-DoD types (who were awash in government money for research and development). Needless to say, it creates some funky attitudes and viewpoints.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

gandalf: Sweet Jesus, you’re one of those East Coast intelligentsia types, aren’t you? You’re probably flipping through the “Village Voice” right now, and buying organic foodstuffs from Vermont, or, even worse, CANADA!

My God, it all becomes so clear!

It’s kind of funny. I grew up in the SF/Bay Area, out in Santa Clara County (which, by way of reference, is very much like Orange County in terms of demographics and voting), so there has always been this presumption that if you’re from that part of the world, you’re liberal. Not so much. But we were also next door to Palo Alto and Stanford, which has always had a combustible and schizophrenic mix of diehard leftist profs, libertarian entrepreneurs and conservative pro-DoD types (who were awash in government money for research and development). Needless to say, it creates some funky attitudes and viewpoints.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

gandalf: Sweet Jesus, you’re one of those East Coast intelligentsia types, aren’t you? You’re probably flipping through the “Village Voice” right now, and buying organic foodstuffs from Vermont, or, even worse, CANADA!

My God, it all becomes so clear!

It’s kind of funny. I grew up in the SF/Bay Area, out in Santa Clara County (which, by way of reference, is very much like Orange County in terms of demographics and voting), so there has always been this presumption that if you’re from that part of the world, you’re liberal. Not so much. But we were also next door to Palo Alto and Stanford, which has always had a combustible and schizophrenic mix of diehard leftist profs, libertarian entrepreneurs and conservative pro-DoD types (who were awash in government money for research and development). Needless to say, it creates some funky attitudes and viewpoints.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

gandalf: Sweet Jesus, you’re one of those East Coast intelligentsia types, aren’t you? You’re probably flipping through the “Village Voice” right now, and buying organic foodstuffs from Vermont, or, even worse, CANADA!

My God, it all becomes so clear!

It’s kind of funny. I grew up in the SF/Bay Area, out in Santa Clara County (which, by way of reference, is very much like Orange County in terms of demographics and voting), so there has always been this presumption that if you’re from that part of the world, you’re liberal. Not so much. But we were also next door to Palo Alto and Stanford, which has always had a combustible and schizophrenic mix of diehard leftist profs, libertarian entrepreneurs and conservative pro-DoD types (who were awash in government money for research and development). Needless to say, it creates some funky attitudes and viewpoints.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

gandalf: Sweet Jesus, you’re one of those East Coast intelligentsia types, aren’t you? You’re probably flipping through the “Village Voice” right now, and buying organic foodstuffs from Vermont, or, even worse, CANADA!

My God, it all becomes so clear!

It’s kind of funny. I grew up in the SF/Bay Area, out in Santa Clara County (which, by way of reference, is very much like Orange County in terms of demographics and voting), so there has always been this presumption that if you’re from that part of the world, you’re liberal. Not so much. But we were also next door to Palo Alto and Stanford, which has always had a combustible and schizophrenic mix of diehard leftist profs, libertarian entrepreneurs and conservative pro-DoD types (who were awash in government money for research and development). Needless to say, it creates some funky attitudes and viewpoints.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

gandalf: I think Reagan’s real strength was that he was a true believer. He was a Cold Warrior in the most ideological sense of the term. The Soviets respected strength and Reagan went right at them. No more proxy wars, but a clearly stated upping of the ante. And, Reagan was just crazy enough to have the Russians believing that he just might go off the reservation at any time, if sufficiently provoked.

I think that is where the Bush Administration falters. I don’t get the sense that Bush truly believes in much of what he espouses. And I don’t think there is quite the ideological concurrence or cohesiveness within his administration. Clinton suffered from this as well, but it was more based on Bill’s playing the polls and “triangulating” rather than any lack of intelligence.

I believe we engage the Iranians, with an eye to how the largely moderate population as a whole is going to view our approach. Iran has some fairly serious structural weaknesses, including their economy. Obviously, they are not a serious military threat to us. If there were to be a revolution, I don’t think it would be violent, I think it would be more along the lines of what happened in Eastern Europe right before the Wall came down. Countries that present these monolithich fronts invariably suffer from large, unseen cracks that can be exploited. Iran’s population is younger, educated, articulate and pro-US, all of which plays to our advantage, if we take a measured approach.

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